ENERJİ ARZ GÜVENLİĞİ RİSKİNİN TÜRKİYE’NİN MAKROEKONOMİK DENGELERİNE ETKİSİ

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 4, 55 - 83, 30.12.2017

Neslihan Ursavaş Ertuğrul Yıldırım

https://doi.org/10.11616/basbed.vi.459379

Cited By: 4

Öz

Çalışmada Türkiye’nin enerji arz güvenliği riski ile makroekonomik dengeler arasındaki ilişkiler test edilmektedir. 1980-2012 dönemini kapsayan veriler kullanılarak enerji arz güvenliği riski ile ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, cari açık ve istihdam arasındaki ilişki Todo-Yamamato nedensellik prosedürü ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre enerji arz güvenliği riskinden ekonomik büyümeye, enflasyona ve cari açığa doğru tek yönlü bir Granger nedensellik ilişkisi gözlenirken; enerji arz güvenliği riski ile istihdam arasında herhangi bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. Bu sonuçlara göre, büyümeyi artırmayı, enflasyon ve cari açığı azaltmayı hedefleyen politikalarda enerji arz güvenliğini sağlayıcı tedbirlerin önemli bir yer tutması gerektiğini ima etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji Arz Güvenliği, Ekonomik Büyüme, Cari Açık, Enflasyon, Granger Nedensellik Analizi.

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