PANDEMİ GÖLGESİNDE BREXİT: BİRLEŞİK KRALLIK VE AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ EKONOMİLERİNE ETKİLERİ

Öz

Birleşik Krallık (BK)’ın Avrupa Birliğinden (AB) ayrılmasını nitelendirmek için kullanılan Brexit kavramı, siyasi etkilerinden daha çok yaratacağı ekonomik etkilerle tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada taraflar arasında yürütülen müzakerelerde gündeme gelen çeşitli Brexit senaryoları ve anlaşmanın yapılmasıyla birlikte BK ve AB’de görülen ekonomik etkiler değerlendirilmiştir. Tüm senaryolarda çıkan ortak sonuç, Brexit’in hem BK hem de AB ekonomisini olumsuz etkileyeceği ancak BK ekonomisine olan olumsuz etkisinin AB ekonomisinde yaratacağı olumsuz etkiden daha fazla olacağı yönünde olmuştur. Çalışmada bu etkiler; Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH), Kişi Başına Düşen Milli Gelir, Dış Ticaret ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar açısından analiz edilmiştir. Müzakereler sonunda BK ve AB arasında imzalanan Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmasının yürürlüğe girmesiyle birlikte dış ticarette büyük aksamalar ve düşüşler meydana gelmiştir. Ayrıca anlaşmanın ilk aylarında özellikle BK’nın GSYİH oranında azalma meydana gelirken AB’nin BK’daki yatırım oranında ve emek göçünde de düşüşler yaşanmıştır. Ancak 2020 yılı başında başlayan ve Büyük Buhrandan sonra görülen en büyük ekonomik kriz olarak nitelendirilen Covid-19 pandemisi, Brexit’in yarattığı olumsuz ekonomik etkilerin tam olarak tespit edilmesini zorlaştırmaktadır. Bu yüzden Brexit’in ekonomik etkilerinin uzun vadede daha net bir şekilde ortaya çıkacağı tahmin edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avrupa Birliği
• Serbest Ticaret Anlaşması
• Dış Ticaret

BREXIT IN THE SHADOW OF PANDEMIC: THE IMPACTS ON THE ECONOMIES OF THE UNITED KINGDOM AND THE EUROPEAN UNION

Abstract

The concept of Brexit, which is used to characterize the departure of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), is discussed with its economic effects rather than its political effects. In this study, various Brexit scenarios that came to the agenda in the negotiations between the parties and the economic effects in the UK and the EU with the conclusion of the agreement were evaluated. The common result in all scenarios is that Brexit will negatively affect both the UK and the EU economy, but the negative impact on the UK economy will be greater than the negative impact on the EU economy. These effects in the study is analyzed in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Per Capita National Income, Foreign Trade and Foreign Direct Investments. With the entry into force of the Free Trade Agreement signed between the UK and the EU at the end of the negotiations, major disruptions and decreases occurred in foreign trade. In addition, in the first months of the agreement, there was a decrease in the UK's GDP ratio, while there were also decreases in the EU's investment rate and labor migration in the UK. However, the Covid-19 pandemic, which started at the beginning of 2020 and is described as the biggest economic crisis after the Great Depression, makes it difficult to fully detect the negative economic effects of Brexit. Therefore, it is estimated that the economic effects of Brexit will emerge more clearly in the long run.

Keywords

• European Union
• Free Trade Agreement
• Foreign Trade

Kaynakça

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