Is China’s Great Transformation Sustainable? Analysing the Relationship Between Environmental Factors and Economic Dynamics

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 483 - 528, 30.06.2025

Seyit Ordu , Bahar Burtan Doğan

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1552228

Öz

With the reformist policies implemented by the Chinese government, especially after 1980, China's economic structure has undergone major transformations. This major transformation in the economic structure is now considered to have become a problem that threatens China's sustainable growth. Therefore, it is important to examine the relationship between environmental factors and economic dynamics that underlie these problems. The main motivation of this study is the impact of economic growth, human capital, natural resource rent and urbanization on the ecological footprint in China. Using annual data for China for the period 1980-2021, the ARDL bounds test developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) was used for cointegration analysis, while the symmetric causality test developed by Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and the asymmetric causality test developed by Hatemi-J (2012) were preferred for causality analysis. According to the empirical findings, while a cointegration relationship was found among the variables, both symmetric and asymmetric causality relationships were found among all variables except for the symmetric causality of ecological footprint and human capital.

Anahtar Kelimeler

China Economy , Environmental Quality , Cointegration-Causality Analysis

Çin’in Büyük Dönüşümü Sürdürülebilir mi? Çevresel Faktörler ve İktisadi Dinamikler Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi

Öz

Çin hükümetinin özellikle 1980 yılından sonra uygulamaya koyduğu reformist politikalarla birlikte, Çin’in ekonomik yapısında büyük dönüşümler yaşanmıştır. Ekonomik yapıda yaşanan bu büyük dönüşümün, günümüzde Çin’in sürdürülebilir büyümesini tehdit eden bir sorun haline geldiği düşünülmektedir. Dolayısıyla bu sorunların temelini oluşturan çevresel faktörler ve iktisadi dinamikler arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Yapılan bu çalışmanın temel motivasyonunu, Çin’de ekonomik büyümenin, beşerî sermayenin, doğal kaynak rantının ve kentleşmenin ekolojik ayak izi üzerindeki etkisi oluşturmaktadır. Çin için 1980-2021 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak, değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme analizi için Pesaran vd. (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL sınır testi kullanılırken, nedensellik analizi için Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006)’nin geliştirdiği simetrik, asimetrik nedensellik analizi için ise Hatemi-J (2012) tarafından geliştirilen nedensellik testleri tercih edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre, değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisine ulaşılırken, ekolojik ayak izi ve beşerî sermayeye ait simetrik nedensellik dışında tüm değişkenler arasında hem simetrik hem de asimetrik nedensellik ilişkisine ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çin Ekonomisi , Çevresel Kalite , Eşbütünleşme-Nedensellik Analizi

Kaynakça

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