Dalgalı Kurda Sabit Hedefler: Türkiye’de Ar-Ge Yatırımlarının Döviz Kuru Oynaklığına Tepkisi

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 263 - 287, 28.02.2026

Serkan Konya

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1768379

https://izlik.org/JA88GC22GD

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de döviz kuru oynaklığının Ar-Ge yatırımları üzerindeki etkilerini 1990-2023 dönemi için incelemektedir. Ar-Ge yatırımlarının uzun vadeli ve riskli bir yapıya sahip olması, döviz kuru belirsizliklerinden güçlü biçimde etkilenmesine yol açmaktadır. Çalışmada Augmented ARDL yöntemi kullanılarak hem kısa hem uzun dönem ilişkiler analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, uzun dönemde döviz kurundaki değer kaybının Ar-Ge harcamalarını artırdığını, ancak kısa dönemde kur dalgalanmalarının Ar-Ge üzerinde baskı yarattığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca kişi başına gelir artışının ve ihracat yoğunluğunun Ar-Ge’yi azaltıcı yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Ar-Ge yatırımlarının yalnızca iç ekonomik dinamiklerden değil, dış ticaret yapısı ve kur belirsizliğinden de etkilendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu bağlamda, döviz kuru istikrarı ile birlikte Ar-Ge teşviklerinin etkin biçimde uygulanması, Türkiye’nin yenilik kapasitesinin güçlendirilmesi açısından kritik öneme sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Döviz Kuru , Ar-Ge Harcamaları , İnovasyon , AARDL

Etik Beyan

Etik komite onayı ve/veya yasal/özel izin gerektirmeyen bu çalışma, araştırma ve yayın etiğine uygundur.

Fixed Targets in a Volatile Exchange Rate Environment: The Response of R&D Investments to Currency Fluctuations in Turkey

https://izlik.org/JA88GC22GD

Öz

This study explores the effect of exchange rate volatility on R&D investments in Turkey from 1990 to 2023. Due to the long-term and risky nature of R&D activities, they are highly affected by exchange rate uncertainties. Using the Augmented ARDL method, both short-term and long-term dynamics are examined. The results show that, in the long run, depreciation of the domestic currency encourages R&D spending, while in the short term, exchange rate fluctuations have a limiting effect. Additionally, higher per capita income and export levels are found to reduce R&D investments. These findings suggest that R&D activity in Turkey is shaped not only by domestic economic factors but also by trade patterns and currency volatility. Therefore, maintaining exchange rate stability and adopting effective R&D policies are vital for boosting the country’s innovation potential.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exchange Rate , R&D Expenditures , Innovation , AARDL

Kaynakça

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