How Do Economic Complexity and Energy Intensity Affect Carbon Emissions? A Model Adaptation Based on the EKC Approach

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3, 1263 - 1294

Canan Şentürk

https://doi.org/10.25229/beta.1565340

Öz

Countries tend to bring their income closer to an income level close to the complexity of production structures. And this requires countries to focus on creating conditions that lead to higher complexity to achieve sustainable economic growth. In this case, a more complex productive structure leads to both higher productivity and growth rates. In addition, increasing export shares in products with a high level of complexity/ value added creation is positively associated with increased income. However, increasing economic complexity can lead to environmental degradation due to higher pollution. At this point, the main question addressed in the study is whether ECI rising above a certain level leads to environmental improvement, as it is constructed on income in the basic form of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Due to this connection, the study uses the economic complexity index instead of income with the EKC model adaptation. Energy intensity is also included in the model with the idea that control of environmental degradation begins with reducing energy intensity. In this context, the study investigates how economic complexity and energy intensity affect carbon emissions with the ARDL Bounds test approach, using data for the period 1995-2021 for Türkiye. According to the findings obtained from the study, there is a significant statistical relationship between the variables in both the long term and short term. It is considered appropriate to develop and prioritize policies that include good practice examples, such as developing green/clear energy, increasing credits and energy subsidies as a way to reduce total primary energy consumption and fossil fuel share, increasing the incentive for energy transition for Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sustainable Development , Economic Complexity , Environmental Degradation , Energy Intesity , ARDL Bounds Test

Ekonomik Karmaşıklık ve Enerji Yoğunluğu Karbon Emisyonlarını Nasıl Etkiliyor? Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Yaklaşımına Dayalı Bir Model Uyarlaması

Öz

Ülkelerin üretken yapılarının karmaşıklığına karşılık gelen bir gelir düzeyine yakınsama eğilimi, sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme sağlamak için daha yüksek karmaşıklığa yol açan koşullar yaratmaya odaklanmalarını gerektirmektedir. Bu durumda daha karmaşık bir üretken yapı, daha yüksek üretkenliğe ve daha yüksek büyüme oranlarına yol açmaktadır. Ayrıca karmaşıklık düzeyinin/katma değer yaratımının yüksek olduğu ürünlerde ihracat paylarının artması, gelir artışıyla pozitif olarak ilişkilendirilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, ekonomik karmaşıklığın artması, bir noktaya kadar daha yüksek kirlilik sebebi ile çevresel bozulmaya yol açabilmektedir. Bu noktada çalışmada ele alınan temel soru, Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (EKC) hipotezi temel formunda gelir üzerinden kurgulandığı gibi ‘ECI’nın da belirli bir düzeyin üzerine çıkması halinde, eğilimi tersine döndürerek çevresel iyileşmeye yol açıp açmadığı’dır. Bu bağlantı sebebiyle çalışmada EKC modelinin uyarlamasıyla, gelir yerine, ekonomik karmaşıklık endeksi esas alınmaktadır. Çevresel bozulmanın kontrolünün enerji yoğunluğunun azaltılmasıyla başlayacağı düşüncesinden hareketle, modele enerji yoğunluğu da dahil edilmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmada Türkiye için 1995-2021 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak ARDL Sınır Testi yaklaşımıyla ekonomik karmaşıklık ve enerji yoğunluğunun karbon emisyonlarını nasıl etkilediği araştırılmaktadır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre hem uzun dönemde hem de kısa dönemde değişkenler arası anlamlı istatistiksel ilişki söz konusudur. Türkiye için temiz enerji gelişimi; toplam birincil enerji tüketimi ve fosil yakıt payını azaltmanın bir yolu olarak kredi ve enerji sübvansiyonları; enerji geçişi teşvikinin arttırılması gibi iyi uygulama örneklerini içeren politikaların geliştirilmesi ve önceliklendirilmesinin yerinde olacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma , Ekonomik Karmaşıklık , Çevresel Bozulma , Enerji Yoğunluğu , ARDL Sınır Testi

Kaynakça

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