Yıl 2020, Cilt 2 , Sayı 2, Sayfalar 398 - 409 2020-03-13

Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis
Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis

Yasin ACAR [1] , Muhammed BENLİ [2]


In this study, we examine the causal patterns among current account deficit, budget deficit, government debt sustainability, and inflation in Turkey for the period 1975 – 2017. The strong integration of emerging economies such as Turkey to the global economy depends on determining the true causal relationship between macroeconomic dynamics that are considered in this study and the implementation of the related policies accordingly. Therefore, in order to create inductive causal patterns among the selected variables, we employ Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) widely used in causal modeling. The resulting DAG patterns suggest that the current account deficit has a direct effect on the budget deficit which is a direct determinant of government debt sustainability. The findings also indicate that inflation is an indirect determinant of government debt sustainability through its direct effect on-budget deficit. 

In this study, we examine the causal patterns among current account deficit, budget deficit, government debt sustainability, and inflation in Turkey for the period 1975 – 2017. The strong integration of emerging economies such as Turkey to the global economy depends on determining the true causal relationship between macroeconomic dynamics that are considered in this study and the implementation of the related policies accordingly. Therefore, in order to create inductive causal patterns among the selected variables, we employ Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) widely used in causal modeling. The resulting DAG patterns suggest that the current account deficit has a direct effect on the budget deficit which is a direct determinant of government debt sustainability. The findings also indicate that inflation is an indirect determinant of government debt sustainability through its direct effect on-budget deficit. 

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Birincil Dil tr
Konular İktisat
Bölüm Research Articles
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0002-0847-1902
Yazar: Yasin ACAR (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: BİLECİK ŞEYH EDEBALİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Ülke: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0001-6486-8739
Yazar: Muhammed BENLİ
Kurum: BİLECİK ŞEYH EDEBALİ ÜNİVERSİTESİ
Ülke: Turkey


Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 13 Mart 2020

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { bilturk684626, journal = {BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies}, issn = {}, eissn = {2667-5927}, address = {http://dergipark.gov.tr}, publisher = {Fatih DEYNELİ}, year = {2020}, volume = {2}, pages = {398 - 409}, doi = {}, title = {Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis}, key = {cite}, author = {Acar, Yasin and Benli̇, Muhammed} }
APA Acar, Y , Benli̇, M . (2020). Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis . BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies , 2 (2) , 398-409 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/bilturk/issue/52960/684626
MLA Acar, Y , Benli̇, M . "Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis" . BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 2 (2020 ): 398-409 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/bilturk/issue/52960/684626>
Chicago Acar, Y , Benli̇, M . "Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis". BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 2 (2020 ): 398-409
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis AU - Yasin Acar , Muhammed Benli̇ Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - DO - T2 - BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 398 EP - 409 VL - 2 IS - 2 SN - -2667-5927 M3 - UR - Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 BİLTÜRK Ekonomi ve İlişkili Çalışmalar Dergisi Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis %A Yasin Acar , Muhammed Benli̇ %T Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis %D 2020 %J BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies %P -2667-5927 %V 2 %N 2 %R %U
ISNAD Acar, Yasin , Benli̇, Muhammed . "Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis". BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies 2 / 2 (Mart 2020): 398-409 .
AMA Acar Y , Benli̇ M . Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis. BILTURK. 2020; 2(2): 398-409.
Vancouver Acar Y , Benli̇ M . Current Account Deficit – Budget Deficit – Debt Sustainability Triangle in Turkey: A Data Based Causality Analysis. BİLTÜRK Journal of Economics and Related Studies. 2020; 2(2): 398-409.