Artificial Intelligence and Optimization Based Output Power Forecasting in Power Plants

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 148 - 157

Murat Tekin , Serhat Berat Efe

https://doi.org/10.46387/bjesr.1691808

Öz

The demand for energy has been rapidly increasing on a global scale due to industrialization and population growth. This increase necessitates making energy production processes more efficient, sustainable, and predictable. Therefore, forecasting models based on artificial intelligence and heuristic optimization techniques have become a crucial component of decision support systems in the energy sector. In this study, a forecasting model based on Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was developed, and the hyperparameters of the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model used for forecasting were optimized using PSO. During the training and testing stages, a dataset consisting of operational data from a power plant was utilized. The model's performance was evaluated using statistical error metrics such as the coefficient of determination (R²), root mean square error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). The results demonstrate that the proposed PSO-based optimization approach provides high accuracy in energy production forecasting and offers a significant alternative to traditional methods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

LSTM , PSO , POWER PLANTS , POWER FORECASTING

Enerji Santrallerinde Yapay Zekâ ve Optimizasyon Temelli Çıkış Gücü Kestirimi

Öz

Enerji talebi, sanayileşme ve nüfus artışına bağlı olarak küresel ölçekte hızla artmaktadır. Bu artış, enerji üretim süreçlerinin daha verimli, sürdürülebilir ve öngörülebilir hale getirilmesini zorunlu kılmaktadır. Bu nedenle, özellikle yapay zekâ ve sezgisel optimizasyon temelli tahmin modelleri, enerji alanında karar destek mekanizmalarının önemli bir bileşeni haline gelmiştir.Bu çalışmada, Parçacık Sürü Optimizasyonu (PSO) algoritmasına dayalı bir tahmin modeli geliştirilmiş; ve tahmin için kullanılan Uzun Kısa Süreli Bellek (LSTM) modelinin hiperparametreleri PSO kullanılarak optimize edilmiştir. Modelin eğitim ve test süreçlerinde, bir enerji santraline ait operasyonel verilerden oluşan bir veri seti kullanılmıştır. Modelin performansı; belirleme katsayısı (R²), kök ortalama kare hata (RMSE), ortalama kare hata (MSE) ve ortalama mutlak hata (MAE) gibi istatistiksel hata metrikleri ile değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, önerilen PSO tabanlı optimizasyon yaklaşımının enerji üretim tahmininde yüksek doğruluk sunduğunu ve geleneksel yöntemlere kıyasla önemli bir alternatif oluşturduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

LSTM , PSO , ENERJİ SANTRALLERİ , GÜÇ KESTİRİMİ

Kaynakça

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