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TÜRKİYE’DEKİ REEL ÜCRETLER KONJONKTÜR YÖNLÜ MÜDÜR?

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 6, 130 - 148, 01.07.2014

Hayrettin Kesgingöz

Öz

Ekonomik konjonktür, reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıladaki artışlar ve azalışlar olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Reel gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıladaki bu artışlara ve azalışlara reel ücretler konjonktür yönlü bir şekilde etki etmektedir. Ayrıca gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla içerisindeki reel ücretlerin payı da konjonktür yönlüdür. Bir konjonktürün temel özelliklerinden biri olan reel ücretlerin Türkiye ekonomisinde konjonktür yönlü olup olmadığının test edilmesi konjonktür kuramı için önemli bir ampirik kanıt teşkil etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde reel ücretlerin konjonktür yönlü olup olmadığı araştırılmıştır. Çalışmada 1998–2012 dönemi için Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) veri tabanından derlenen çeyrek yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda VAR analizi yapılmış, etki tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırması elde edilmiştir. Yapılan testlerde elde edilen sonuçlara göre reel ücretler konjonktür kuramının tersine konjonktür ile aynı yönlü hareket etmemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Reel Ücret Ekonomik Konjonktür

Kaynakça

  • AÇIKALIN, S., GÜL, E. ve YAŞAR, E., (2006) “Ücretler ve Büyüme ile Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi,” Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Sayı:16, Aralık 2006.
  • AKERLOF, G. A. ve YELLEN, J. L. (1990) “The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105, 255-283.
  • BACKUS, David K. Ve PATRICK J. Kehoe (1992) “International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles.” American Economic Review 82(September):864–88.
  • BARRO, Robert J. ve GROSSMAN, Herscel I. (1971) “A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment,” A.E.R. 61 (March 1971): 82-93.
  • BILGILI, F. DÜZGÜN, R. ve UĞURLU, E. (2007) “Büyüme, Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Yurtiçi Yatırımlar Arasındaki Etkileşim,” Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Say :23 Y l:2007/2 (127-151 s.)
  • BILS, M. (1985) “Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 93, pp. 666-689.
  • BODKİN, Ronald G. (1969) “Real Wages and Cyclical Variations in Employment: A Re-Examination of the Evidence,” Canadian J. Econ. 2 (August 1969): 353-74.
  • BURNS, F. Arthur ve MITCHELL, Westley C. (1946) “Measuring Business Cycles”, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), New York.
  • CARNEIRO, A., GUIMARAES, P., ve PORTUGAL, P. (2009) “Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker,Firm, and Job Heterogeneity,” Discussion Paper Series No.4174, May 2009.
  • CHRISTIANO, Lawrence J. ve EICHENBAUM, Martin (1992) "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," Amer. Econ. Rev., June 1992, 82(3), pp. 430-50.
  • COLEMAN, Thomas (1984) “Essays on Aggregate Labor Market Business Cycle Fluctuations,” Ph.D. dissertation, Univ.Chicago.
  • DE LA ROCA, J. (2012) “Wage Cyclicality: Evidence from Spain Using Social Security Data,” New York University, August 2012
  • DEN HAAN, W. J. (2000) “The comovement between output and prices,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 3– 30.
  • DEN HAAN, W. J. ve SUMNER, S.W. (2004) “The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7,” European Economic Review, vol. 48, no. 6, pp. 1333–1347.
  • DIELBOLD F. ve RUDEBUSCH , R. (1996) “Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspestive” The Rewiew of Economics and Statistics, Vol.78, No:1, Harward Universty, February.
  • DORE, Mohammed H. I. (1995) The Macro Dynamics of Business Cycles: A Comparative Evaluation, Blackwell Cambridge MA & Oxford UK, USA Publishers, Massachusetts.
  • DUNLOP, J. (1938) “The Measurement of Real Wages and Money Wage Rates,” Economic Journal, Vol. 48, pp. 413-434.
  • FIORITO, Riccardo, ve TRYPHON Kollintzas (1994) “Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G7 from a Real Business Cycles Perspective.” European Economic Review 38(February): 235–69.
  • FLEİSCHMAN, C. A. (1999) “ The Cause of Business Cycles and the Cyclicality of Real Wages,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Finance and Economics Series, No.1999-53.
  • GEARY, Patrick T. Ve KENNAN, John (1982) “The Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study,” J.P.E. 90 (August 1982): 854-71.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J., ve NEWBOLD P. (1974) Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • GUJARATI, D. N. (1999) Basic econometrics, Mc Graw Hill, Literatur Yayıncılık, 3rd Edition, İstanbul.
  • HABERLER, G. (1937) Prosperity and Depression: A Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements, League of Nations, Geneva.
  • HANES, C. (1996) “Changes in the cyclical behavior of real wage rates, 1870–1990,” Journal of Economic History, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 837–861.
  • HANSEN, A. H. (1964). Business Cycle and National Income, NewYork, W.W. Norton Company. HASHİMOTO, Masanori ve RAİSİAN, John (1985) “Wage Flexibility in the United States and Japan,” Manusscript.Seattle Univ. Washington.
  • HAWTREY, R. G.(1953) “The Monetary Theory of Trade Cycle and Its Statistical Test,” London. Quarterly journal of Economics, 671-686.
  • HUSSON, M. (2010) Marksist İktisat Teorisi (çev. O. Binatlı), İstanbul: Yazın Yayıncılık.
  • KARGI, Bilal (2013) “Ücret Yapışkanlığı Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret ve Büyüme Üzerine Zaman Serileri Analizi (2005-2012),” Çalışma ve Toplum Dergisi, 2013/2.
  • KEANE, M., MOFFITT, R., ve RUNKLE, D. (1988) “Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data,” Journal of Political Economy, vol.96, no.6. p.1232- 66.
  • KEYNES, J. (1939) “Relative Movements of Real Wages and Output,” Economic Journal, Vol. 49, pp. 34-51.
  • KYDLAND, F. E. (1995) “Business cycles and aggregate labour market fluctuations,” in Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, T. F. Cooley, Ed., Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, USA, pp. 126–156.
  • KYDLAND, F., ve PRESCOTT, E.C. (1990) “Business Cycles: Real Facts and A Monetary Myth,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Issue Spr, 3-18.
  • KYDLAND, Finn E. ve PRESCOTT, Edward C. (1994) “Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth.” In Preston J. Miller, ed., The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings from the Front Line. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
  • LİU, H. (2003) “A Cross-Country Comparison on the Cyclicality of Real Wages,” Canadian Journal of Economics 36, 923-948.
  • MARCELLINO, Massimiliano ve MIZON, E. Grayham (2001) “Small-System Modelling of Real Wages, Inflation, Unemployment and Output per Capita in Italy 1970–1994,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, pp. 359-370.
  • MARTYNA Marczak, M. ve BEISSINGER, T. (2010) “Real Wages and the Business Cycle in Germany,” Discussion Paper Series, IZA DP No. 5199, September 2010.
  • MESSINA, J., STROZZI, C., ve TURUNEN, J., (2009) “Real Wages over the Business Cycle OECD Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domains,” European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No.1003, February 2009.
  • MILL, J.S. (1909) “Principles of Political Economy (1848),” Publicher Longmans, Green and Co., http://www.econlib.org/library/Mill/mlP.html (Erişim tarihi: 21.05.2013).
  • NEFTÇİ, Salih N. (1978) “A Time Series Analysis of the Real Wages-Employment Relationship,” J.P.E.86 No. 2 (April 1978):281-91.
  • ÖZER, Mustafa. ve TABAN, Sami (2006) Modern Konjonktür Teorileri, İkinci Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • RAİSİAN, John (1983) “Contracts, Job Experience, and Cyclical Labor Market Adjustments,” J. Labor Econ. 1 (April 1983): 152-70.
  • SARGENT, Thomas J. (1978) “Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations,” J.P.E.86 (December 1978):1009-44.
  • SOLON, G. BARSKY, R. ve PARKER, J.(1989) “Measuring the cyclicality of real wages: how important is composition bias?,” TheQuarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 109, no. 1, pp. 1–26, 1989.
  • STIGLITZ, J. E. (1976) “Price and Queues as Screening Devices in Competitive Markets,” IMSSS Technical Report, 212, Stanford University.
  • TARSHIS, L. (1939) “Changes in Real and Money Wages,” Economic Journal, Vol. 29, pp. 150-154.
  • TCMB Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sisteminden Derlenen Verilerden yola Çıkılarak hesaplanmıştır. http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/Erişim Tarihi: 03.05.2013.
  • UNAY, Cafer (2001) Ekonomik Konjonktür (Analiz-Teori-Tahmin), 6. Basım, Ekin Kitabevi Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • WOİTEK, Ulrich (2003) “Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries,” Cefifo Working Paper No. 1206, Category 5: Fiscal Policy, MAcroeconomics and Growth, 1-28.

ARE THE REAL WAGES IN TURKEY PROCYCLICAL?

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 6, 130 - 148, 01.07.2014

Hayrettin Kesgingöz

Öz

Business cycle is defined as increases and decreases in real GDP. Real wages affect these increases and decreases in real GDP procyclically. Moreover, the share of real wages in real GDP is also procyclical. It is very important to test whether real wages, which are one of the basic characteristics of business cycle, are procyclical in the economy of Turkey, as this would provide an important evidence for the business cycle theory. In this study, It is searched that whether the real wages in Turkey are procyclical or not. For the 1998–2012 period, the quareterly data that is obtained from the Central Bank of Turkey is used. By using var analysis, cause and effect functions and the variance decomposition were derived. According to test results, contrary to business cycle theory, real wages are counter cyclical.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Real Wage Business Cycle

Kaynakça

  • AÇIKALIN, S., GÜL, E. ve YAŞAR, E., (2006) “Ücretler ve Büyüme ile Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Arasındaki İlişkinin Ekonometrik Analizi,” Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Sayı:16, Aralık 2006.
  • AKERLOF, G. A. ve YELLEN, J. L. (1990) “The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 105, 255-283.
  • BACKUS, David K. Ve PATRICK J. Kehoe (1992) “International Evidence on the Historical Properties of Business Cycles.” American Economic Review 82(September):864–88.
  • BARRO, Robert J. ve GROSSMAN, Herscel I. (1971) “A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment,” A.E.R. 61 (March 1971): 82-93.
  • BILGILI, F. DÜZGÜN, R. ve UĞURLU, E. (2007) “Büyüme, Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları ve Yurtiçi Yatırımlar Arasındaki Etkileşim,” Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi Say :23 Y l:2007/2 (127-151 s.)
  • BILS, M. (1985) “Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 93, pp. 666-689.
  • BODKİN, Ronald G. (1969) “Real Wages and Cyclical Variations in Employment: A Re-Examination of the Evidence,” Canadian J. Econ. 2 (August 1969): 353-74.
  • BURNS, F. Arthur ve MITCHELL, Westley C. (1946) “Measuring Business Cycles”, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), New York.
  • CARNEIRO, A., GUIMARAES, P., ve PORTUGAL, P. (2009) “Real Wages and the Business Cycle: Accounting for Worker,Firm, and Job Heterogeneity,” Discussion Paper Series No.4174, May 2009.
  • CHRISTIANO, Lawrence J. ve EICHENBAUM, Martin (1992) "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," Amer. Econ. Rev., June 1992, 82(3), pp. 430-50.
  • COLEMAN, Thomas (1984) “Essays on Aggregate Labor Market Business Cycle Fluctuations,” Ph.D. dissertation, Univ.Chicago.
  • DE LA ROCA, J. (2012) “Wage Cyclicality: Evidence from Spain Using Social Security Data,” New York University, August 2012
  • DEN HAAN, W. J. (2000) “The comovement between output and prices,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 3– 30.
  • DEN HAAN, W. J. ve SUMNER, S.W. (2004) “The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7,” European Economic Review, vol. 48, no. 6, pp. 1333–1347.
  • DIELBOLD F. ve RUDEBUSCH , R. (1996) “Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspestive” The Rewiew of Economics and Statistics, Vol.78, No:1, Harward Universty, February.
  • DORE, Mohammed H. I. (1995) The Macro Dynamics of Business Cycles: A Comparative Evaluation, Blackwell Cambridge MA & Oxford UK, USA Publishers, Massachusetts.
  • DUNLOP, J. (1938) “The Measurement of Real Wages and Money Wage Rates,” Economic Journal, Vol. 48, pp. 413-434.
  • FIORITO, Riccardo, ve TRYPHON Kollintzas (1994) “Stylized Facts of Business Cycles in the G7 from a Real Business Cycles Perspective.” European Economic Review 38(February): 235–69.
  • FLEİSCHMAN, C. A. (1999) “ The Cause of Business Cycles and the Cyclicality of Real Wages,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), Finance and Economics Series, No.1999-53.
  • GEARY, Patrick T. Ve KENNAN, John (1982) “The Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study,” J.P.E. 90 (August 1982): 854-71.
  • GRANGER, C. W. J., ve NEWBOLD P. (1974) Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • GUJARATI, D. N. (1999) Basic econometrics, Mc Graw Hill, Literatur Yayıncılık, 3rd Edition, İstanbul.
  • HABERLER, G. (1937) Prosperity and Depression: A Theoretical Analysis of Cyclical Movements, League of Nations, Geneva.
  • HANES, C. (1996) “Changes in the cyclical behavior of real wage rates, 1870–1990,” Journal of Economic History, vol. 56, no. 4, pp. 837–861.
  • HANSEN, A. H. (1964). Business Cycle and National Income, NewYork, W.W. Norton Company. HASHİMOTO, Masanori ve RAİSİAN, John (1985) “Wage Flexibility in the United States and Japan,” Manusscript.Seattle Univ. Washington.
  • HAWTREY, R. G.(1953) “The Monetary Theory of Trade Cycle and Its Statistical Test,” London. Quarterly journal of Economics, 671-686.
  • HUSSON, M. (2010) Marksist İktisat Teorisi (çev. O. Binatlı), İstanbul: Yazın Yayıncılık.
  • KARGI, Bilal (2013) “Ücret Yapışkanlığı Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: Türkiye’de Asgari Ücret ve Büyüme Üzerine Zaman Serileri Analizi (2005-2012),” Çalışma ve Toplum Dergisi, 2013/2.
  • KEANE, M., MOFFITT, R., ve RUNKLE, D. (1988) “Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data,” Journal of Political Economy, vol.96, no.6. p.1232- 66.
  • KEYNES, J. (1939) “Relative Movements of Real Wages and Output,” Economic Journal, Vol. 49, pp. 34-51.
  • KYDLAND, F. E. (1995) “Business cycles and aggregate labour market fluctuations,” in Frontiers of Business Cycle Research, T. F. Cooley, Ed., Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, USA, pp. 126–156.
  • KYDLAND, F., ve PRESCOTT, E.C. (1990) “Business Cycles: Real Facts and A Monetary Myth,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Issue Spr, 3-18.
  • KYDLAND, Finn E. ve PRESCOTT, Edward C. (1994) “Business Cycles: Real Facts and a Monetary Myth.” In Preston J. Miller, ed., The Rational Expectations Revolution: Readings from the Front Line. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
  • LİU, H. (2003) “A Cross-Country Comparison on the Cyclicality of Real Wages,” Canadian Journal of Economics 36, 923-948.
  • MARCELLINO, Massimiliano ve MIZON, E. Grayham (2001) “Small-System Modelling of Real Wages, Inflation, Unemployment and Output per Capita in Italy 1970–1994,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol. 16, pp. 359-370.
  • MARTYNA Marczak, M. ve BEISSINGER, T. (2010) “Real Wages and the Business Cycle in Germany,” Discussion Paper Series, IZA DP No. 5199, September 2010.
  • MESSINA, J., STROZZI, C., ve TURUNEN, J., (2009) “Real Wages over the Business Cycle OECD Evidence from the Time and Frequency Domains,” European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No.1003, February 2009.
  • MILL, J.S. (1909) “Principles of Political Economy (1848),” Publicher Longmans, Green and Co., http://www.econlib.org/library/Mill/mlP.html (Erişim tarihi: 21.05.2013).
  • NEFTÇİ, Salih N. (1978) “A Time Series Analysis of the Real Wages-Employment Relationship,” J.P.E.86 No. 2 (April 1978):281-91.
  • ÖZER, Mustafa. ve TABAN, Sami (2006) Modern Konjonktür Teorileri, İkinci Baskı, Bursa: Ekin Kitabevi.
  • RAİSİAN, John (1983) “Contracts, Job Experience, and Cyclical Labor Market Adjustments,” J. Labor Econ. 1 (April 1983): 152-70.
  • SARGENT, Thomas J. (1978) “Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations,” J.P.E.86 (December 1978):1009-44.
  • SOLON, G. BARSKY, R. ve PARKER, J.(1989) “Measuring the cyclicality of real wages: how important is composition bias?,” TheQuarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 109, no. 1, pp. 1–26, 1989.
  • STIGLITZ, J. E. (1976) “Price and Queues as Screening Devices in Competitive Markets,” IMSSS Technical Report, 212, Stanford University.
  • TARSHIS, L. (1939) “Changes in Real and Money Wages,” Economic Journal, Vol. 29, pp. 150-154.
  • TCMB Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sisteminden Derlenen Verilerden yola Çıkılarak hesaplanmıştır. http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/Erişim Tarihi: 03.05.2013.
  • UNAY, Cafer (2001) Ekonomik Konjonktür (Analiz-Teori-Tahmin), 6. Basım, Ekin Kitabevi Yayınları, İstanbul.
  • WOİTEK, Ulrich (2003) “Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries,” Cefifo Working Paper No. 1206, Category 5: Fiscal Policy, MAcroeconomics and Growth, 1-28.
Toplam 48 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA59NK45PC
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Hayrettin Kesgingöz Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 6

Kaynak Göster

APA Kesgingöz, H. (2014). TÜRKİYE’DEKİ REEL ÜCRETLER KONJONKTÜR YÖNLÜ MÜDÜR?. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(6), 130-148.