LOW-CARBON GREEN GROWTH AND MAIN DETERMINANTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS: A CASE STUDY FOR TURKEY

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 8, 22 - 41, 01.07.2015

Fahri Şeker , Murat Çetin

Öz

In this study, the impact of three fundamental CO2 emissions determinants (economic growth, energy consumption, and population) disclosed in Yoichi Kaya decomposition on CO2 emissions has been analyzed for Turkey from 1961 to 2010. For this purpose, the ARDL bounds testing and Johansen-Juselius approaches to cointegration and VECM Granger causality test are used. The results reveal that i) the variables are stationary in their first differences, ii) the series are cointegrated, iii) the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid for Turkish economy, iv) there exists a positive link between population growth and CO2 emissions in the long run, v) there exists a long run causality running from all the explanatory variables to CO2 emissions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Green growth, CO2 emissions, ARDL bound test, Vector error correction model, Cointegration, Granger causality

DÜŞÜK KARBONLU YEŞİL BÜYÜME VE KARBONDİOKSİT SALINIMININ TEMEL BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE UYGULAMASI

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Yoichi Kaya ayrıştırmasında ortaya konulan üç temel karbondioksit salınımı belirleyicisinin (ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi ve nüfus) karbondioksit salınımı üzerindeki etkisi Türkiye ekonomisi bağlamında 1961-2010 dönemi için incelenmektedir. Bu amaçla, ARDL sınır testi ve Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme yaklaşımları ile VECM Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar değişkenlerin birinci farkında durağan olduğunu, seriler arasında bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını, çevresel Kuznets eğrisi hipotezinin Türkiye ekonomisi için uygunluğunu, nüfus artışı ile karbondioksit salınımı arasında uzun dönemde pozitif bir ilişkiyi ve tüm bağımsız değişkenlerden karbondioksit salınımına doğru bir uzun dönem nedenselliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yeşil büyüme, Karbondioksit salınımı, ARDL sınır testi, Vektör hata düzeltme modeli, Eşbütünleşme, Granger nedenselliği

Kaynakça

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