Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Economic Growth Relationship in Türkiye: Are Agricultural Farmgate Emissions a Major Factor?

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 390 - 407, 24.12.2025

Gökhan Uzel , Elif Erbek Bozaba , Sertaç Dokuzlu , Serkan Gürlük

https://doi.org/10.33202/comuagri.1724967

Öz

Although the agricultural sector in Türkiye has met/is meeting various criteria during its accession process to the EU, it has not yet formulated a strategy for mitigating or adapt-ing to climate change, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which con-tribute to climate change. One of the significant reasons behind the farmer protests ob-served in the EU may be the perceived strict stance of EU leaders on combating climate change. This study examines the relationship between farmgate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and economic growth in Türkiye. Using Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), the causal relationship between agricultural and non-agricultural emissions and GDP is explored in a country where agriculture remains a significant source of income. Accord-ing to the VAR results, although there is no statistical causality found between GDP, non-agricultural emissions, and farmgate emissions, it is suggested that Türkiye, which is following the path of emerging economies and the EU, needs to undertake measures both on the supply side and the demand side. The transition of rural residents in Türkiye to alter agricultural techniques that have been practiced for centuries for mitigation pur-poses may require time. The current findings of the paper do not dictate this. However, in a growing economy, transitioning to regional studies and demand-side mitigation policies for non-agricultural emissions can be implemented more readily. The process that began with supply-side mitigation efforts in countries like the EU, where farmers were structurally more prepared, could start with demand-side mitigation efforts in Tü-rkiye (such as dietary changes, measures in the processing industry, etc.). The wave of change observed in consumers and agricultural raw material processors could lead to-wards farmgate mitigation efforts.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vector Autoregressif Model , Time Series , Agricultural Emissions , Sustainable Economic Growth , Türkiye

Türkiye'de Tarımsal Sera Gazı Emisyonları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Etkileşim: Tarımsal Üretici Emisyonları Majör Bir Faktör mü?

Öz

Türkiye’de tarım sektörü EU’ya uyum aşamasında pek çok kriteri yerine getirmiş / getiriyor olsa da iklim değişikliğine neden olan sera gazlarının azaltılması (mitigation) ya da adaptasyonu (adaptation) için bir strateji belirlememiştir. EU’da görülen çiftçi eylemlerinin önemli gerekçeleri arasında EU liderlerinin iklim değişikliği ile mücadele konularında çok hassas belki de katı bir tutum sergiliyor olmaları nedeniyledir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de farmgate sera gazı emisyonlarının (GHG) ekonomik büyüme ile ilişkisi incelenmiş, tarımın hâlen önemli bir gelir kaynağı olan ülkede tarım ve tarım dışı emisyonlarının GDP ile nedensellik (causal) ilişkisi Vector Autoregressif Model (VAR) yardımıyla anlaşılmaya çalışılmıştır. VAR sonuçlarına göre GDP, tarım dışı emisyonlar ve farmgate emisyonlaar arasında istatistiksel bir causality bulunmasa da emerging ekonomiler ve AB’nin izlediği patikada yol alan Türkiye’nin de yapması gerekenler arz yönlü ve talep yönlü olarak ayrıştırılmıştır. Türkiye’de kırsal kesimde yaşayanların yüzyıllardır uygulanan tarım tekniklerini mitigation amaçlı değiştirmesi zaman alabilir. Halihazırda current paper sonuçları bunu dikte etmemektedir. Ancak büyüyen ekonomide tarım dışı emisyonlarda bölgesel çalışmalara ve talep yanlı mitigation politikalarına kolaylıkla geçilebilir. EU gibi ülkelerde arz yanlı mitigation çalışmalarıyla başlayan süreç, ki EU çiftçisi yapısal anlamda daha hazırdı, Türkiye’de talep yanlı (diet değişimi, işleme sanayinde alınacak önlemler etc.) mitigation çalışmalarıyla başlayabilir. Tüketicilerde ve tarımsal hammaddeyi işleyicilerde görülen değişim dalgası farmgate mitigation a doğru ilerleyebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vektör Otoregressif Model , Zaman Serisi , Tarımsal Emisyonlar , Sürdürülebiliir Ekonomik Büyüme , Türkiye

Etik Beyan

Araştırma herhangi bir etik kurul kararı gerektirmemektedir.

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