THE DİGİTAL ECONOMY AND STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT: EMPİRİCAL EVİDENCE FROM OECD COUNTRİES

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 22 Sayı: Özel Sayı: Endüstri 4.0 ve Dijitalleşmenin Sosyal Bilimlerde Yansımaları, 1299 - 1323, 30.09.2024

Yusuf Ünsal

https://doi.org/10.35408/comuybd.1468996

Öz

The digital economy has emerged as an important contribution to economies worldwide. The digital economy has come to the forefront as a field that examines the effects of technological advances and digitalization on economic activity. However, identifying and quantifying the impact of the digital economy on national economies remains a complex endeavor. This study investigates the effects of the digital economy on unemployment in selected OECD countries over the period 2000-2022. In the study, a model is constructed with unemployment rate as the dependent variable and digital economy, economic growth and inflation rate as explanatory variables. First, the model was analyzed for cointegration using the Westerlund (2008) test. A cointegration relationship was found for the model. Then, Panel ARDL method is used for short and long run coefficient estimates. According to the Panel ARDL results, there is no effect of the digital economy on the unemployment rate in the short run across the panel. However, as a result of the short-run analysis conducted separately for each country, it was found that the digital economy increases and decreases the unemployment rate. Economic growth and inflation rate, included as explanatory variables in the model, were found to decrease the unemployment rate in the short run. Long-run Panel ARDL results show that the digital economy decreases the unemployment rate. In addition, according to the Panel ARDL long-run results, economic growth decreased the unemployment rate, while the inflation rate increased the unemployment rate. These findings suggest that some of the selected OECD countries experience structural unemployment in the short run due to the digital economy. However, the disruptive effect of the digital economy in the short run is transformed into a positive economic situation in the long run in the form of increased employment. The study makes an important contribution to the literature on the relationship between the digital economy and unemployment. It provides results on the positive and negative effects of the expansion of the digital economy on unemployment and employment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Digital Economy, Structural Unemployment, Employment, Panel ARDL, OECD Countries

DİJİTAL EKONOMİ VE YAPISAL İŞSİZLİK: OECD ÜLKELERİNDEN AMPİRİK KANITLAR

Öz

Dijital ekonomi, dünya çapında ekonomilere önemli bir katkı olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Dijital ekonomi, teknolojik ilerlemelerin ve dijitalleşmenin ekonomik faaliyetler üzerindeki etkilerini inceleyen bir alan olarak ön plana çıkmaya başlamıştır. Bununla birlikte, dijital ekonominin ulusal ekonomiler üzerindeki etkisini tanımlayabilmek ve tespit edebilmek karmaşık bir çaba olmaya devam etmektedir. Bu çalışma, 2000-2022 dönemi kapsamında seçilmiş OECD ülkelerinde dijital ekonominin işsizlik üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada işsizlik oranı bağımlı değişken, dijital ekonomi, GSYİH ve enflasyon oranı açıklayıcı değişkenler olacak şekilde bir model oluşturulmuştur. Öncelikle söz konusu model, Westerlund (2008) testi ile eşbütünleşme analizi yapılmıştır. Model için bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra kısa ve uzun dönem katsayı tahminleri için Panel ARDL yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Panel ARDL sonuçlarına göre panel genelinde kısa dönemde dijital ekonominin işsizlik oranı üzerinde bir etkisine rastlanamamıştır. Ancak her bir ülke için ayrı ayrı yapılan kısa dönem analizi sonucunda, dijital ekonominin işsizlik oranını arttırdığı ve azalttığına yönelik sonuçlar tespit edilmiştir. Modelde açıklayıcı değişken olarak yer alan GSYİH ve enflasyon oranı ise kısa dönemde işsizlik oranını azalttığı görülmüştür. Uzun dönem Panel ARDL sonuçları ise dijital ekonominin işsizlik oranını azalttığını göstermiştir. Bunun yanında Panel ARDL uzun dönem sonuçlarına göre GSYİH işsizlik oranını azaltırken, enflasyon oranı işsizlik oranını arttırmıştır. Bu bulgular, seçilmiş OECD ülkelerinin bazılarında dijital ekonomi nedeniyle kısa dönemde yapısal işsizlik yaşandığını göstermektedir. Ancak kısa dönemde dijital ekonominin yıkıcı etkisi uzun dönemde istihdamın artması şeklinde olumlu bir ekonomik duruma evirilmiştir. Çalışma, dijital ekonomi ve işsizlik ilişkini ele alan literatüre önemli bir katkı sağlarken, dijital ekonomin yaygınlaşmasının işsizlik ve istihdam üzerinde meydana getirebileceği olumlu ve olumsuz etkiler hakkında sonuçlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dijital Ekonomi, Yapısal İşsizlik, İstihdam, Panel ARDL, OECD Ülkeleri

Kaynakça

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