Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme ilişkisi

Yıl 2005, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 2, 63 - 80, 01.09.2005

Arş. Gör. İbrahim Arısoy

Öz

This paper attempts to test Wagnerian and Keynesian hypotheses by examining the relationship between economic growth and total government expenditure as well as its various components such as current investment and transfer expenditures for Turkey during the period 1950 2003 This study finds a unidirectional causality except for total government expenditure from economic growth to disaggregated public expenditure that total current investment transfer expenditures non transfer total public expenditures in the long run Although the results of this study do not support the existence of any long run casual relationship between economic growth and total public expenditures they do support the existence of long run relationship between economic growth and the disaggregated public expenditure variables The result of this study provide evidence to support the proposition in the literature that causality runs from economic growth to disaggregated public expenditures called as Wagner hypothesis Key Words: Wagnerian and Keynesian hypotheses dissagregated public expenditure growth causality co integration error correction model

Anahtar Kelimeler

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Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme ilişkisi

Öz

Bu çalışma 1950 2003 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanarak Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve toplam kamu harcamalarının yanı sıra bu harcamaların ekonomik tasnife göre ayrıştırılmış çeşitli unsurları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelerek Wagner ve Keynes hipotezlerini incelemektedir Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre toplam kamu harcamaları hariç uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeden ekonomik tasnife göre ayrıştırılmış cari yatırım transfer ve transfer dışı harcamalar gibi kamu harcamalarının unsurlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır Söz konusu sonuçlar uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümenin kamu harcamalarını artıracağını öne süren Wagner Yasasını desteklemektedir Anahtar Kelimeler: Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezi Kamu Harcama Unsurları Büyüme Nedensellik Eş Bütünleşme Hata Düzeltme Modeli

Anahtar Kelimeler

Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezi, Kamu Harcama Unsurları, Büyüme

Kaynakça

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