PETROL FİYATININ GIDA FİYATLARI ÜZERİNE ASİMETRİK ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 30 Sayı: 1, 11 - 21, 30.04.2021

Neşe Algan Erhan İşcan Duygu Serin

https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.748530

Cited By: 3

Öz

2000'li yıllar itibariyle yaşanan gıda fiyatlarında artış eğilimi, bu konudaki akademik tartışmaların yaygınlaşmasına neden olmakla birlikte, hükümetleri sosyo-ekonomik çıkarımlar konusunda etkilemektedir. Gıda fiyat artışına yönelik politika önerileri ile gıda fiyatındaki değişimin belirleyicilerinin tespit edilmesi için çok sayıda çalışma yapılmıştır. Aynı yıllarda ham petrol fiyatının eşzamanlı artışıyla, petrol fiyatının bir açıklama olarak incelenmesi söz konusudur. Mevcut çalışma, devam etmekte olan bu araştırma konusunun bir parçasını oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, makalenin amacı Türkiye'de petrol fiyatının gıda fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerini doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikmeler (NARDL) modeli kullanarak ampirik olarak incelenmesidir. Analiz sonucunda, uzun vadede petrol fiyatı artışları ile gıda fiyatı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilirken, petrol fiyatı azalışları ile gıda fiyatı arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatı, Gıda Fİyatları, NARDL

Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Food Prices: The Case of Turkey

Öz

Increasing trend in food prices since 2000s, it causes the widespread academic debate on this issue and affects the governments on socio-economic implications. Numerous studies have been carried out to determine the determinants of the change in food price and policy recommendations for food price increase. In the same years, with the simultaneous increase of the crude oil price, it is important to examine the oil price as an explanation. The current study is part of this ongoing research topic. Therefore, the aim of this is to examine the impact on food prices of oil prices in Turkey. In order to examine this impact, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is used to analyze the nonlinear relationships between variables. As a result of the analysis, while a positive and significant relationship is determined between oil price increases and food price in the long term, there is no long-term relationship between oil price decreases and food price.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oil Prices, Food Prices, NARDL

Kaynakça

• Abdlaziz, R. A., Rahim, K. A., & Adamu, P. (2016). Oil and food prices co-integration nexus for Indonesia: A non-linear autoregressive distributed lag analysis. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(1), 82-87. Baffes, J., & Dennis, A. (2013). Long-term drivers of food prices. The World Bank.
• Balcombe, K., & Rapsomanikis, G. (2008). Bayesian estimation of nonlinear vector error correction models: the Case of sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 90, 658-668.
• Brown, R. L., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149-163.
• Chen, S. T., Kuo, H. I., & Chen, C. C. (2010). Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices. Applied Energy, 87(8), 2517-2525.
• Coronado, S., Rojas, O., Romero-Meza, R., Serletis, A., & Chiu, L. V. (2018). Crude oil and biofuel agricultural commodity prices. In Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics (pp. 107-123). Springer, Cham.
• Esmaeili, A., & Shokoohi, Z. (2010). Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: application of principal component analysis. Energy Policy, 39 (2011), 1022-1025.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1996). This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(2), 215-220.
• Hanson, K., Robinson, S., & Schluter, G. (1993). Sectoral effects of a world oil-price shock: economy-wide linkages to the agricultural sector. Staff report (No. PB--92-128610/XAB). Economic Research Service.
• Ibrahim, M. H. (2015). Oil and food prices in Malaysia: a nonlinear ARDL analysis. Agricultural and Food Economics, 3(1), 1-14.
• Ibrahim, M. H., & Said, R. (2012). Disaggregated consumer prices and oil price pass‐through: evidence from Malaysia. China agricultural economic review.
• Jongwanich, J., & Park, D. (2011). Inflation in developing Asia: pass‐through from global food and oil price shocks. Asian‐Pacific Economic Literature, 25(1), 79-92. Lucotte (2016), “Co-movements between crude oil and food prices: A post-commodityboom perspective”,Economics Letters 147 (2016) 142–147
• Meyer, D. F., Sanusi, K. A., & Hassan, A. (2018). Analysis of the asymmetric impacts of oil prices on food prices in oil-exporting developing countries. Journal of International Studies, 11(3), 82-94. Nazlioglu, S. (2011). World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality. Energy policy, 39(5), 2935-2943.
• Nazlioglu, S., & Soytas, U. (2011). World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: evidence from an emerging market. Energy Economics, 33(3), 488-496.
• Paris, A. (2018). On the link between oil and agricultural commodity prices: Do biofuels matter?. International Economics, 155, 48-60.
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. Reboredo JC (2012) Do food and oil prices co-move? Energy Policy 49:456–67
• Scherer, F. M., & Ross, D. (1990). Industrial market structure and economic performance. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign's Academy for entrepreneurial leadership historical research reference in entrepreneurship.
• Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 281-314). Springer, New York, NY.
• Zmami, M., & Ben-Salha, O. (2019). Does oil price drive world food prices? Evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL modeling. Economies, 7(1), 12.