THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GOVERNANCE INDICATORS AND FOREIGN TRADE: THE CASE OF OECD COUNTRIES

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 34 Sayı: 2, 1632 - 1651, 24.10.2025

Abdullah Takım , Müsemma Çökerdenoğlu

https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.1660494

Öz

In recent years, the concept of governance has gained significant prominence in the economic growth literature and has been regarded as one of the key determinants of economic performance. Since the 1990s, good governance practices have not only been adopted as a development goal but have also become one of the fundamental components forming the institutional foundation of economic and social development. In line with this, the need to render the concept of governance measurable and comparable has emerged in response to this need, the World Bank developed the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), which consist of six key components. As one of the essential components of economic growth, foreign trade contributes significantly to development processes by enhancing countries’ production capacities. This study aims to analyze the relationship between foreign trade and governance indicators within the context of OECD countries, with the objective of revealing the impact of institutional structures on trade performance. To this end, the study utilizes governance indicators and foreign trade data from 37 OECD countries covering the period from 2002 to 2022. Using the panel causality test developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012), two separate models were constructed for each foreign trade indicator based on six governance measures, and these models were analyzed to determine the existence and direction of csusality relationships. The results indicate that each of the six governance dimensions exhibits a bidirectional (two-way) causal relationship with both exports and imports. The findings reveal that while the quality of governance has a direct impact on foreign trade performance, exports and imports also exert a reciprocal and significant influence on governance indicators. These results point to a dynamic interaction between governance and foreign trade, whereby economic activities are not only shaped by governance structures but may also play a transformative role in shaping institutiional structures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Governance Indicators , Export , Import , Panel Causality

YÖNETİŞİM GÖSTERGELERİYLE DIŞ TİCARET ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Yönetişim kavramı son yıllarda, ekonomik büyüme literatüründe önemli bir yer edinmiş, ekonomik performansın belirleyici unsurlarından biri olarak değerlendirilmiştir. 1990’lı yıllardan itibaren iyi yönetişim uygulamaları yalnızca bir kalkınma hedefi olarak benimsenmekle kalmamış, aynı zamanda ekonomik ve sosyal gelişmenin kurumsal altyapısını oluşturan temel unsurlardan biri haline gelmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, yönetişim kavramının ölçülebilir ve karşılaştırılabilir bir yapıya kavuşturulması ihtiyacı doğmuş, bu ihtiyaca yanıt olarak Dünya Bankası tarafından altı temel bileşenden oluşan Dünya Yönetişim Göstergeleri (WGI) geliştirilmiştir. Ekonomik büyümenin temel bileşenlerinden biri olan dış ticaret, ülkelerin üretim kapasitesini artırarak kalkınma süreçlerine önemli katkılar sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, dış ticaret ile yönetişim göstergeleri arasındaki ilişkiyi OECD ülkeleri örneğinde analiz ederek, kurumsal yapıların ticaret performansı üzerindeki etkilerini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada 37 OECD ülkesine ait 2002-2022 dönemine ilişkin yönetişim göstergeleri ile dış ticaret verileri kullanılmıştır. Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi aracılığıyla, her bir dış ticaret göstergesi için altı yönetişim ölçütüne dayalı iki ayrı model oluşturulmuş ve bu modeller nedensellik ilişkisi çerçevesinde karşılıklı olarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, yönetişimin altı bileşeninin her birinin hem ihracat hem de ithalat ile karşılıklı (çift yönlü) nedensellik ilişkisi içinde olduğunu göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, yönetişim kalitesinin ülkelerin dış ticaret performansını doğrudan etkilediğini, aynı zamanda ihracat ve ithalatın da yönetişim göstergeleri üzerinde karşılıklı ve belirleyici bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu sonuçlar, yönetişim ve dış ticaret arasında dinamik bir etkileşimin olduğunu, ekonomik faaliyetlerin yalnızca yönetişimden etkilenmekle kalmayıp aynı zamanda kurumsal yapıları da dönüştürebildiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yönetişim Göstergeleri , İhracat , İthalat , Panel Nedensellik

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369–1401. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369
• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J., & Thaicharoen, Y. (2003). Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: Volatility, crises and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1), 49–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00208-8
• Ali, M. S. B., & Mdhillat, M. (2015). Does corruption impede international trade? New evidence from the EU and the MENA countries. Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 36(4), 107–120. http://hdl.handle.net/10576/38667
• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369-1401. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369
• Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Robinson, J., & Thaicharoen, Y. (2003). Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: Volatility, crises and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1), 49-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00208-8
• Álvarez, I. C., Barbero, J., Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Zofío, J. L. (2018). Does institutional quality matter for trade? Institutional conditions in a sectoral trade framework. World Development, 103, 72-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.010
• Anderson, J., & Marcouiller, D. (2002). Insecurity and the pattern of trade: An empirical investigation. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2), 342-352. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3211782
• Aryeetey, E., & Goldstein, M. (2000). Ghana: Social-policy reform in Africa. In Reforming social policy: Changing perspectives on sustainable human development. IDRC, Ottawa, ON, CA.
• Bah, M., Ondoa, H. A., & Kpognon, K. D. (2021). Effects of governance quality on exports in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Economics, 167, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2021.05.003
• Bahramian, P., & Saliminezhad, A. (2019). On the relationship between export and economic growth: A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach for Turkey. The Journal of International Trade Economic Development, 29(1), 131-145. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2019.1648537
• Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
• Barro, R. J. (1996). Determinants of economic growth: A cross-country empirical study (No. 5698). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w5698
• Berden, K., Bergstrand, J. H., & Etten, E. (2014). Governance and globalization. The World Economy, 37(3), 353-386. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12135
• Berkowitz, D., Moenius, J., & Pistor, K. (2006). Trade, law, and product complexity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(2), 363-373. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.88.2.363
• Bojnec, Š., Fertő, I., & Fogarasi, J. (2014). Quality of institutions and the BRIC countries' agro-food exports. China Agricultural Economic Review, 6(3), 379-394 https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-02-2013-0034
• Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
• Butkiewicz, J. L., & Yanikkaya, H. (2006). Institutional quality and economic growth: Maintenance of the rule of law or democratic institutions, or both? Economic Modelling, 23(4), 648-661.
• Chang, H. (2007). Understanding the relationship between institutions and economic development: Some key theoretical issues. In H.-J. Chang (Ed.), Institutional change and economic development. United Nations University Press.
• Dampare, G. A., & Piesse, J. (2002). Financial development, political institutions, and economic growth in the ECOWAS sub-region: An empirical analysis. The Management Centre, King’s College London.
• Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2003). Institutions, trade, and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1), 133-162. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00206-4
• Doyle, E. (2001). Export-output causality and the role of exports in Irish growth: 1950-1997. International Economic Journal, 15(3), 31-54. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168730100000042
• Doğan, Z., & Kurt, Ü. (2016). Yeni kurumsal iktisadın dalları. Journal of life Economics, 3(1), 115-130. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.118
• Dumitrescu, E., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
• Fallon, J., & Richard, H. (1997). The rule of law as a concept in constitutional discourse. Columbia Law Review, 97(1), 1-56. https://doi.org/10.2307/1123446
• Fosu, A. K. (2003). Political instability and export performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Journal of Development Studies, 39(4), 68-83. https://doi.org/10.1080/713869426
• Gallup, J. L., Sachs, J. D., & Mellinger, A. D. (1999). Geography and economic development. International Regional Science Review, 22(2), 179-232. https://doi.org/10.1177/016001799761012334
• Guiso, L., Sapienza, P., & Zingales, L. (2009). Cultural biases in economic exchange? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(3), 1095-1131. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2009.124.3.1095
• Güney, T. (2017). Hükümet etkinliği ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. International Review of Economics and Management, 5(4), 42-55. https://doi.org/10.18825/iremjournal.335671
• Gyimah-Brempong, K., & Traynor, T. L. (1999). Political instability, investment, and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Economies, 8(1), 52-86. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/8.1.52
• Gylfason, T., Martínez‐Zarzoso, I., & Wijkman, P. M. (2015). Free trade agreements, institutions, and the exports of Eastern Partnership countries. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 53(6), 1214-1229. https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12275
• Hall, R. E., & Jones, C. I. (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 83-116. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003355399555954
• Helpman, E., & Krugman, P. R. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade: Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. MIT Press.
• Henisz, W. J. (2000). The institutional environment for multinational investment. Journal of Law, Economics, & Organization, 16(2), 334-364. https://doi.org/10.1093/jleo/16.2.334
• Horsewood, N., & Voicu, A. M. (2012). Does corruption hinder trade for the new EU members? Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 6, 2012-47. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-47
• Julius, S., Azu, N. P., & Muhammad, M. Y. (2019). Assessing the impact of terrorism in trade development in the SADC region: A gravity model approach. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 9(10), 1147-1159. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.aefr.2019.910.1147.1159
• Kaufmann, D., & Kraay, A. (2002). Growth without governance. Economia, 3(1), 169-229.
• Kaufmann, D., & Kraay, A. (2002). Growth without governance. World Bank Policy Research, Working Paper, 2928. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/19206
• Kaufmann, D., & Kraay, A. (2003). Governance and growth: Causality which way? – Evidence for the world, in brief. World Bank.
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2004). Governance matters III: Governance indicators for 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002. The World Bank Economic Review, 18(2), 253-288. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/18134
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2005). Governance matters IV: Governance indicators for 1996–2004. World Bank. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.718081
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2006). Governance matters V: Aggregate and individual governance indicators for 1996–2005. World Bank. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/265051468322155295
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2006). The Worldwide Governance Indicators project: Answering the critics. World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7203
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2007). Governance matters VI: Aggregate and individual governance indicators 1996–2006. World Bank. https://ssrn.com/abstract=999979
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2008). Governance matters VII: Aggregate and individual governance indicators 1996–2007. World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/6870
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2011). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical issues. Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 3(2), 220-246. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1876404511200046
• Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Zoido-Lobatón, P. (1999). Aggregating governance indicators. World Bank. Kaufmann, Daniel and Kraay, Aart and Zoido, Pablo, Governance Matters (August 1999). https://ssrn.com/abstract=188568
• Levchenko, A. A. (2007). Institutional quality and international trade. The Review of Economic Studies, 74(3), 791-819. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00435.x
• Levent, A. (2016). Yönetişim ve yeni kurumsal iktisat. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 3(2), 17-32.
• Lopez, L., & Weber, S. (2017). Testing for Granger causality in panel data. University of Neuchatel Institute of Economic Research, Irene Working Paper, 17(03), 1-12. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/191498
• Mădălina, R. (2015). Bucharest University of Economic Studies, Calea Dorobanţi, nr. 15-17, Bucharest, Romania. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)01324-6
• Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 681-712. https://doi.org/10.2307/2946696
• Méndez-Picazo, M. T., Galindo-Martín, M. Á., & Ribeiro-Soriano, D. (2012). Governance, entrepreneurship and economic growth. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, 24(9-10), 865–877. https://doi.org/10.1080/08985626.2012.742323
• Méon, P.-G., & Sekkat, K. (2004). Kurumların kalitesi MENA'nın dünya ekonomisine entegrasyonunu sınırlıyor mu? Dünya Ekonomisi, 27(9), 1475-1498.
• Méon, P.-G., & Sekkat, K. (2005). Does corruption grease or sand the wheels of growth? Public Choice, 122(1–2), 69–75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-005-3988-0
• Mıra, R., & Hammadache, A. (2017). Good governance and economic growth: A contribution to the institutional debate about state failure in Middle East and North Africa. Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 11(3), 107-120. https://doi.org/10.1080/25765949.2017.12023313
• Moschos, D. (1989). Export, expansion, growth and the level of economic development: An empirical analysis. Journal of Development Economics, 30, 93–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(89)90052-7
• Naude, W. A. (2004). The effects of policy, institutions and geography on economic growth in Africa: An econometric study based on cross-section and panel data. Journal of International Development, 16, 821–849. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1129
• Nitsch, V., & Schumacher, D. (2004). Terrorism and international trade: An empirical investigation. European Journal of Political Economy, 20(2), 423-433. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2003.12.009
• North, D. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511808678
• North, D., Acemoğlu, D., Fukuyama, F., & Rodrik, D. (2008). Governance, growth, and development decision making. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank.
• Onafowora, O. A., & Owoye, O. (2024). Trade openness, governance quality, and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. International Economics, 179, 100527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2024.100527
• Özşahin, Ş., & Karaçor, Z. (2013). Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicilerinden biri olarak beşeri sermaye: yükseköğrenimin türkiye ekonomisi için önemi, Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(1), 148-162.
• Panas, E., & Vamvoukas, G. (2002). Further evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis. Applied Economics Letters, 9, 731-735. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850210126840
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic test for cross-section dependence in panel. IZA Discussion Paper, 1240, 1-39.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
• Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
• Rodrik, D. (Ed.). (2003). In search of prosperity: Analytic narratives on economic growth. Princeton University Press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt1r2fkg.1
• Rosenberg, N., & Birdzell, L. (1986). How the West grew rich: The economic transformation of the industrial world. Basic Books.
• Saha, Ş., & Ben Ali, M. S. (2017). Corruption and economic development: New evidence from the Middle Eastern and North African countries. Economic Analysis and Policy, 54, 83-95. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2903583
• Smith, A. (2007). The wealth of nations: An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations (J. B. Wight, Ed.). Harriman House Limited
• Stoker, G. (1998). Governance as theory: Five propositions. International Social Science Journal, 50(155), 17-28. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2451.00106
• Temple, J. (1999). The new growth evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(1), 112-156. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.37.1.112
• Thomas, M. (2010). What do the worldwide governance indicators measure? European Journal of Development Research, 22, 31–54. https://doi.org/10.1057/ejdr.2009.32
• World Bank. (1994). Governance: The World Bank's experience. Washington DC: World Bank.
• Word Bank Worldwide. (2024). Governance Indicators. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators
• Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel veri ekonometrisi: Stata uygulamalı. Beta Yayınları.
• Yu, S., Beugelsdijk, S., & de Haan, J. (2015). Trade, trust and the rule of law. European Journal of Political Economy, 37, 102-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2014.11.003