The Outlook for Peace in Cyprus after the Financial Crisis and Gas Discoveries

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 43, 1 - 13, 01.06.2017

Akif Bahadır Kaynak

Öz

The end of Cold War eased political tensions in many corners of the World however the conflicts arising from regional dynamics were carried on to the new century. The Greek-Turkish power struggle on Cyprus is among those hot spots where a political settlement has not been reached yet even though the root of disagreement lies in Cold War years. The rejection of Annan Plan by the South in 2004 created a frustration in the Northern Cyprus and Turkey breaking hopes for reconciliation. This status quo was fundamentally altered when the economic model of Cyprus collapsed as a consequence of contagion from European financial crisis. Almost simultaneously significant reserves of natural gas deposits were discovered in Eastern Mediterranean some of which were located to the south of the island. Aphrodite natural gas reserve promised the recovery of economic glimmer of the island provided that legal and technical issues on the extraction and transfer of this resource to European markets are resolved. Turkey has the means to increase transaction costs for Cyprus and energy companies if left out of this deal but can alternatively provide a transit route to European markets for Cyprus’ natural gas. The demise of Cyprus as an off-shore financial center and the prospects for becoming and energy supplier to European markets changed the payoffs of this deadlocked game considerably. In this new setting Turkey, Greece and Cypriots have a strong incentive to cooperate in order to realize the potential in the energy game

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cyprus, European financial crisis, energy cooperation, natural gas, Eastern Mediterranean

Finansal Kriz ve Doğalgaz Keşifleri Sonrası Kıbrıs’ta Barış için Görünüm

Öz

Soğuk Savaş’ın sonu dünyanın birçok köşesindeki politik gerilimlerin azalmasına sahne olsa da bölgesel dinamiklerden kaynaklanan çatışmalar yeni yüzyıla taşınmıştır. Kıbrıs üzerindeki Türk-Yunan güç mücadelesi de henüz bir siyasi çözüme ulaşılamayan bu sıcak noktalardan biridir. 2004 yılında Annan Planı’nın Güney’de reddi Kuzey Kıbrıs’ta ve Türkiye’de hayal kırıklığı yaratmış, çözüm umutlarının kaybolmasına yol açmıştır. Bu durum, Kıbrıs’ın ekonomik kalkınma modelinin Avrupa ekonomik krizinin bir uzantısı olarak çökmesiyle temelden değişecektir. Neredeyse eş zamanlı olarak da bir kısmı adanın güneyinde olan doğalgaz rezervleri Doğu Akdeniz’de keşfedilmiştir. Afrodit doğalgaz sahası, gazın çıkarma ve transferine ilişkin hukuki ve teknik sorunların çözülmesi kaydıyla adanın kaybolmakta olan ışıltısını geri kazandırma umudunu taşımaktadır. Kıbrıs’ın bir off-shore finansal merkez olarak çöküşü ile beraber Avrupa pazarlarına enerji ihracatçısı haline gelme ihtimali bu kilitlenmiş siyasi oyundaki muhtemel getirileri değiştirmiştir. Bu yeni durumda, Türkiye, Yunanistan ve Kıbrıslılar’ın enerji oyunundaki potansiyeli gerçekleştirebilmek için işbirliği yapmalarına güçlü bir gerekçe çıkmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kıbrıs, Avrupa mali krizi, enerji işbirliği, doğal gaz, Doğu Akdeniz

Kaynakça

• Andrei, V., Belyi, A. (2015). “Between a rock and a hard place: International market dynamics, domestic poli- tics and Gazprom’s strategy”, European University Institute Working Papers, RSCAS 22.
• Bilgin, M. (2010). “Energy and Turkey’s Foreign Policy: State Strategy, Regional Cooperation and Private Sector Involvement”, Turkish Policy Quarterly 9/2: 81-92.
• Bilgin, M. (2015). “Turkey’s Energy Strategy, Synchronizing Geopolitics and Foreign Policy with Energy Security?” Insight Turkey 17/2: 67-81.
• Delanoe, I. (2013). “Cyprus, A Russian Foothold in the Changing Eastern Mediterranean”, Middle East Review of International Affairs 17/2: 84-93.
• Eichengreen, B. (2010). “The Breakup of the Euro Area”. in B. Eichengreen ed., In Europe and the Euro, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), 11-51 .
• Emerson, M. (2013). “Fishing for Gas and More in Cypriot Waters”. Global Turkey in Europe, 65.
• Fackrell, B. (2013). “Current Developments in Regional Energy Security and Turkey”, Insight Turkey 15/1: 63-72
• Ateşoğlu Güney, N. (2015). “Turkey as an Energy Hub for Europe”, European Energy and Climate Security, 31: 65-80
• Hafner, M., Tagliapietra, S & El Elandaloussi, E. (2012). “Outlook for Oil and Gas in Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries”, Mediterranean Pros- pects.
• Hanke, S. (2013). “Little Island, The Big Problem”. The Daily Beast.
• Hannay, D. (2005). “Cyprus: The Search for a Solution”. New York: IB Tauris & Co Ltd.
• Henderson, S. (2013). “Natural Gas Export Options for Israel and Cyprus”, Mediterranean Paper Series, Washington DC: German Marshall Fund of the United States.
• International Energy Agency Outlook Report, (Vienna, 2014)
• Kazantsev, A. (2010). “The Crisis of Gazprom as the Crisis of Russia’s “Energy Super-State” Policy Towards Europe and the Former Soviet Union”, Caucasian Review of International Affairs: 271-284.
• Koranyi, D. (2014). “The Southern Gas Corridor: Europe’s Lifeline?” Instituto Affari Internazionali.
• Özdemir, V., Yavuz, B & Tokgöz, E. (2015). “The Trans- Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) as a unique project in the Eurasian gas network: A comparative analysis”, Utilities Policy, 37: 97-103
• Stavrou Michael, M. (2011). “Resolving the Cyprus Conflict: Negotiating History” (New York: Palgrave McMillan.
• Mills, R. (2013). “Northern Iraq’s Oil Chessboard: Energy, Politics and Power”, Insight Turkey 15/1: 51-62.
• Morgan, T. (2011). “Sweet and Bitter Island”. New York: IB Tauris & Co Ltd.
• Mundell, R. (1961). “A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas”. American Economic Review: 657-665.
• Oehker-Sincai, I. (2013). “Financial Contagion Re- loaded: The Case of Cyprus”. (Munich: Institute for World Economy.
• Omidvar, H. (2015). “Iran’s Strategy for Natural Gas”. Global Journal of Fundamental and Applied Life Sciences, 1/1.
• Öğütçü, M. (2012). “Rivalry in the Eastern Mediter- ranean: the Turkish Dimension”.Washington DC: The German Marshall Fund of the United States.
• Ziya Öniş, & Şule Yılmaz. (2008). “Greek-Turkish Rapproachment: Rhetoric or Reality?”. Political Science Quarterly 123/1: 123-149.
• Gökhan Özkan. (2015). “Post-Cold War Turkish Foreign Policy in the Caspian Region within the Context of Pipeline Geopolitics and Geoeconom- ics”. International Journal of Social Science and Humanity, 5/7.
• Pelto, E., Vahtra, P & Liuhto, K. (2004). “Cyp-Rus Investment Flows to Central and Eastern Europe - Russia’s Direct and Indirect Investments via Cyprus to CEE”. Journal of Business Economics and Management: 3-13.
• Brenda Shaffer. (2006). “Turkey’s Energy Policies in a Tight Global Market”, Insight Turkey 8/2: 97-104.
• Stavris, G. (2012) . “The New Energy Triangle of Cyprus-Greece-Israel: Casting a Net for Turkey?” Turkish Policy Quarterly 11/2: 87-102.
• Tagliapietra, S. (2014). “Turkey as a Regional Natural Gas Hub: Myth or Reality?”. Review of Envi- ronment, Energy and Economics.
• Tagliapietra, S., Zachman, G. (2015). “Designing a New EU-Turkey Gas Partnership”, Bruegel Policy Contribution, 10.
• Tunçalp, E. (2015). “Turkey’s Natural Gas Strategy: Balancing Geopolitical Goals and Market Reali- ties”. Turkish Policy, 14/3: 67-79
• Tekin, E., Williams, P. (2011). “Geo-Politics of the Euro-Asia Energy Nexus: The European Union, Russia and Turkey”. New York: Palgrave Mac- Millan.
• Umbach, F. (2010). “Global Energy Security and the Implications for the EU”. Energy Policy 38/3: 1229-1240.
• Winrow, G. (2013). The Southern Corridor and Turkey’s Role as an Energy Transit State and Energy Hub. Insight Turkey 15/1: 145-163. Biographic Sketch