Bayesian Optimizasyonu ile Gauss Proses Regresyon Yöntemlerini Kullanarak Demiryolu Sinyalizasyon Sistemi için Ortalama Hız Tahmini

Öz

Ulaşım sistemleri trafik planlaması içerisinde önemli bir yere sahiptir. Ulaşım sistemleri göz önünde bulundurulduğunda ise demiryolları tüm sistemde büyük pay kaplamaktadır. Demiryolları tasarlanırken erişim noktaları arası ulaşımın istenilen sürede gerçekleştirilmesi planlanmaktadır. Erişim noktaları arası ortalama hız; bekleme süresi, hareket direnci, eğim, kurp, cer kuvveti, maximum hız, aracın kütlesi ve iki istasyon arası mesafe gibi parametrelerden etkilenmektedir. Aracı hareketi bu parametreler ile hesaplanarak sistem tasarımı buna göre gerçekleştirilmektedir. Ortalama hız iki erişim noktası arası seyir süresini etkileyen en önemli unsurlardan biridir. Ortalama hıza bağlı olarak sefer sıklığı süresi değişebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada raylı sistemlerde istasyonlar arası hesaplanan ortalama hızların tahmini için farklı regresyon yöntemleri uygulanmış ve elde edilen başarılı sonuçlar karşılaştırılmalı olarak verilmiştir. Kullanılan yöntemler incelendiğinde Bayesian algoritması ile optimize edilen Gaussian Process Regression yönteminin en başarılı sonucu verdiği görülmüştür. Gauss proses (GP), herhangi bir sonlu sayıda Gauss dağılımına sahip rastgele değişkenlerin topluluğudur. Benzetimler sonrasında root mean square error ve mean absolute error değerleri sırasıyla 0.064 ve 0.047 olarak bulunmuş ve yöntemin başarı oranı hesaplandığında determinasyon katsayısı (R2) değeri 1 olarak elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bayesian Optimizasyon
• Cer Gücü
• Demiryolu
• Gaussian Proses
• Ortalama Hız
• Regresyon

Estimation of the Average Speed for a Railway Signaling System by Using Gaussian Process Regression Methods with Bayesian Optimization

Öz

Transportation systems take an essential place in traffic planning. While designing railways, transportation between access points is planned to be realized within the desired time. The average speed between access points is affected by parameters like waiting time, motion resistance, slope, curve, traction force, maximum speed, the mass of the vehicle, and distance between two stations. The motion of the vehicle is calculated with these parameters, and the system design is performed accordingly. The average speed is one of the most critical factors affecting travel time between two access points. The headway may vary depending on the average speed. In this study, different regression methods were applied to estimate the average speeds calculated between stations in rail systems, and the obtained successful results were presented comparatively. When the methods used were examined, the Gaussian process regression method, which was optimized with the Bayesian algorithm, was observed to yield the most successful result. A Gaussian process (GP) is a collection of random variables, any finite number of which have a Gaussian distribution. Following simulations, the root mean square error and mean absolute error were found to be 0.064 and 0.047, respectively, and the coefficient of determination (R2) value was obtained as 1 when the success rate of the method was calculated.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Average Speed
• Bayesian Optimization
• Gaussian Process
• Railway
• Regression
• Traction

Kaynakça

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