Mann-Kendall ve Yenilikçi Poligon Trend Analizi Kullanılarak Türkiye'nin Batısındaki Akım Trendlerinin Belirlenmesi

Öz

Akarsu akımlarının trendinin belirlenmesi su kaynaklarının yönetimi, enerji üretimi, taşkın ve kuraklık risk yönetimi açısından önemlidir. Akarsu akımlarındaki trendler genellikle Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman testi vb. parametrik olmayan trend testleri ile belirlenmektedir. Ayrıca son yıllarda sıklıkla hidro-klimatolojik zaman serilerinin eğilimlerinin belirlemesi için Yenilikçi poligon trend analizi (YPTA) gibi grafiksel yöntemlerde kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’deki Batı Akdeniz Havzası'ndaki altı akım gözlem istasyonunun (Başgöz Çayı-Çatallar, Eşen Çay-Kavaklıdere, Dalaman Çayı- Suaçtı, Dalaman Çayı- Akköprü, Eşen Çayı-Kınık ve Karaçay- Kayadibi) 1978-2011 yıllarına ait aylık akarsu akımlarının trendi, MK ve YPTA yöntemleriyle incelenmiştir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, havzadaki akarsu akımlarındaki değişimleri belirleyerek su kaynaklarının sürdürülebilir yönetimine katkıda bulunmaktır. MK testi parametrik olmayan bir testtir ve akarsu akım serilerinin otokorelasyon içermesi durumunda hatalı sonuçlar verebilir. Bu nedenle MK testinden önce akarsu akımlarındaki otokorelasyonlar belirlenmiş ve otokorelasyon etkisi ön beyazlatma ile giderilerek MK testi uygulanmıştır. MK testi sonuçları incelendiğinde genel olarak tüm istasyonlarda istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir trende rastlanmazken, Tau değerine göre tüm istasyonlarda akarsu akımları genellikle azalma trendinde olduğu belirlenmiştir. YPTA sonuçları incelendiğinde genel olarak tüm istasyonlarda akarsu akımlarının artış eğiliminde olduğu görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mann-Kendall Trend Test
• Pre-Whitening
• Innovative Polygon Trend Test
• Streamflow
• Western Mediterranean Basin

Determination of Streamflow Trends in the West of Türkiye Using Mann-Kendall and Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis

Öz

Determination of streamflow trends is important in terms of water resources management, energy production, flood and drought risk management. Trends in streamflow are generally determined by non-parametric trend tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK), the Spearman test, etc. In addition, in recent years, graphical methods such as innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) have been frequently used to determine the trends of hydro-climatological time series. In this study, the monthly streamflow trends of six streamflow gauge stations (Başgöz Stream-Çatallar, Eşen Stream-Kavaklıdere, Dalaman Stream- Suaçtı, Dalaman Stream- Akköprü, Eşen Stream-Kınık and Karaçay- Kayadibi) in the Western Mediterranean Basin of Türkiye for the years 1978-2011 were analyzed by MK and IPTA methods. The aim of this study is to contribute to the sustainable management of water resources by determining the changes in streamflow in the basin. The MK test is a non-parametric test and may give erroneous results if the streamflow series contain autocorrelation. Therefore, autocorrelations in streamflow’s were determined before the MK test and the autocorrelation effect was eliminated by pre-whitening and the MK test was applied. When the MK test results were examined, while no statistically significant trend was found in all stations in general, it was determined that stream flows were generally in a decreasing trend according to the Tau value in all stations. When the IPTA results were examined, it was seen that stream flows were generally in an increasing trend in all stations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mann-Kendall Trend Test
• Pre-Whitening
• Innovative Polygon Trend Test
• Streamflow
• Western Mediterranean Basin

Kaynakça

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