THE EFFECT OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN TRADE OPENNESS ON CO2 EMISSION: ARDL BOUNDS TEST

Öz

In this paper, effect of electricity consumption, growth and trade openness on CO2 emission in Turkey between 1970-2014 was analyzed. As an econometric method, ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model) bounds test approach was applied. The increase in electricity consumption, GDP and trade openness by 1% increases carbon dioxide emission by 0.15%, 0.60%, 0.17%, respectively. Error correction coefficient is negative and statistically meaningful. The impact of the variables on carbon dioxide emission clearly show that measures to be taken on environmental pollution in Turkey have become mandatory.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CO2 Emission,Trade Openness,ARDL Bounds Test,Economic Growth,Electricity Consumption

ELEKTRİK TÜKETİMİ, EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE DIŞ TİCARET AÇIKLIĞININ CO2 EMİSYONU ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 1970-2014 yılları arasında Türkiye’de elektrik tüketiminin, büyümenin ve dış ticaret açıklığının CO2 emisyonu üzerine etkisi analiz edilmiştir. Ekonometrik yöntem olarak ARDL (Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model) sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Uzun dönem katsayı tahmin sonuçları incelendiğinde, elektrik tüketimindeki, GSYH’deki ve dış ticaret açıklığındaki %1’lik artışlar karbondioksit emisyonunu sırasıyla, %0.15, %0.60, %0.17 oranında artırmaktadır. Hata düzeltme katsayı değeri ise negatif işaretli ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı olduğu görülmektedir. Değişkenlerin karbondioksit emisyonu üzerine etkileri, Türkiye’de çevre kirliliği konusunda alınacak tedbirlerin zorunlu hale geldiğini açıkça göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CO2 Emisyonu,Dış Ticaret Açıklığı,ARDL Sınır Testi,Ekonomik Büyüme,Elektrik Tüketimi

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