Araştırma Makalesi
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Sunk-Costs, Exports and Real Exchange Rate Relation

Yıl 2023, , 49 - 58, 22.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1037825

Öz

Most of the exportation costs are sunk and those sunk-costs generates hysteresis in the export decisions of the firms. Firm-level observed hysteresis in the export behavior may lead to deterioration in the exchange rate export relation at macro-level. In this study, at the first stage using micro data existence of sunk-cost investigated by studying the exportation decision of the Turkish manufacturing firms. Estimation results show that exporting firms are exposed to high sunk costs. In order to examine the possible impacts of the hysteresis caused by sunk costs on the real exchange rate-export relationship at the sector level the Preisach approach is employed. The results indicate that the hysteresis behavior of the firms caused by sunk costs limits the sensitivity of exports to real exchange rate changes in Turkish manufacturing sectors excluding textile, wearing, tobacco, machinery-equipment and communication tools sub-sectors.

Kaynakça

  • Akdoğan, K. & Werner, L. (2021), Sunk Cost Hysteresis in Turkish Manufacturing Exports, Metu Studies in Development, December 2021, In Press.
  • Atabek-Demirhan, A. (2016a). Export Behavior of the Turkish Manufacturing Firms. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(11), 2646-2668.
  • Atabek-Demirhan, A. (2016b). To be exporter or not to be exporter? Entry–exit dynamics of Turkish manufacturing firms. Empirical Economics, 51(1), 181-200.
  • Atabek-Demirhan, A. & Ercan, H. (2018). Export Behavior of Turkish Manufacturing Firms Under Crises. CBRT Working Papers 18(02).
  • Baldwin, R. (1990). Hysteresis in trade. In Hysteresis Effects in Economic Models (pp. 19-34). Physica-Verlag HD.
  • Baldwin, R., & Krugman, P. (1989). Persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(4), 635-654.
  • Belke, A., & Göcke, M. (2001). Exchange rate uncertainty and employment: an algorithm describing ‘play’. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 17(2), 181-204.
  • Belke, A., Göcke, M., & Günther, M. (2013). Exchange rate bands of inaction and play‐hysteresis in German exports—Sectoral evidence for some OECD destinations. Metroeconomica, 64(1), 152-179.
  • Belke, A. H., Göcke, M., & Werner, L. (2014). Hysteresis Effects in Economics–Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence.
  • Belke, A., Göcke, M., & Werner, L. (2015). Exchange Rate Volatility and other Determinants of Hysteresis in Exports-Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area. Review of Economic Analysis, 7(1), 24-53.
  • Bernard, A. B., & Wagner, J. (2001). Export entry and exit by German firms. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 137(1), 105-123.
  • Campa, J. M. (2004). Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?. European Economic Review, 48(3), 527-548.
  • Dixit, A. (1989a). Hysteresis, import penetration, and exchange rate pass-through. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(2), 205-228.
  • Dixit, A. (1989b). Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 620-638.
  • Krugman, P. R. (1989). Industrial organization and international trade. Handbook of industrial organization, 2, 1179-1223.
  • Özler, Ş., Taymaz, E., & Yilmaz, K. (2009). History matters for the export decision: Plant-level evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry. World Development, 37(2), 479-488.
  • Piscitelli, L., Cross, R., Grinfeld, M., & Lamba, H. (2000). A test for strong hysteresis. Computational Economics, 15(1-2), 59-78.
  • Roberts, M. J., & Tybout, J. R. (1997). The decision to export in Colombia: an empirical model of entry with sunk costs. American Economic Review, 545-564.
  • Timoshenko, O. A. (2015). Learning versus sunk costs explanations of export persistence. European Economic Review, 79, 113-128.
  • Werner, L. M. (2017). Identifying hysteresis non-linearities in trade: Evidence from European wine exports to the U.S.. American Association of Wine Economists Working paper No. 215, 1-37.
  • Werner, L.M. Hysteresis losses in the Preisach framework. Empir Econ 58, 1249–1278 (2020).
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2005). Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of applied econometrics, 20(1), 39-54.

BATIK MALİYETLER, İHRACAT VE REEL KUR İLİŞKİSİ

Yıl 2023, , 49 - 58, 22.01.2023
https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1037825

Öz

İhracata girmeyi planlayan firmaların karşılaşacağı maliyetlerin birçoğu ihracattan vazgeçildiği zaman geri dönüşü olmayan harcamalardan yani batık maliyetlerden oluşmaktadır. Batık maliyetlerin varlığı, firmaların ihracat pazarına girme veya ihracat pazarından çıkma kararlarını gecikmeli olarak almalarına yol açabilmektedir. Firma düzeyinde gözlenen bu atalet aynı zamanda makro düzeyde reel kur-ihracat ilişkisinde bozulmalara da neden olabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada öncelikle firma düzeyinde veriler çerçevesinde imalat sanayi firmalarının ihracat kararlarında atalet etkisi incelenmiştir. Tahmin sonuçları firmaların batık maliyetlere maruz kaldıklarını göstermiştir. Batık maliyetlerin neden olduğu ataletin sektör düzeyinde reel kur-ihracat ilişkisine olası etkilerini incelemek amacıyla Preisach yaklaşımı kullanılarak ihracattaki kalıcılık analizinde kur seviyesinin etkisi incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, ihracata girişte batık maliyetlerin neden olduğu gecikmenin, tekstil, hazır giyim, tütün, makine-teçhizat ve iletişim araçları alt sektörleri haricinde kalan sektörlerde ihracatın reel kur değişimlerine duyarlılığını sınırladığına işaret etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Akdoğan, K. & Werner, L. (2021), Sunk Cost Hysteresis in Turkish Manufacturing Exports, Metu Studies in Development, December 2021, In Press.
  • Atabek-Demirhan, A. (2016a). Export Behavior of the Turkish Manufacturing Firms. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(11), 2646-2668.
  • Atabek-Demirhan, A. (2016b). To be exporter or not to be exporter? Entry–exit dynamics of Turkish manufacturing firms. Empirical Economics, 51(1), 181-200.
  • Atabek-Demirhan, A. & Ercan, H. (2018). Export Behavior of Turkish Manufacturing Firms Under Crises. CBRT Working Papers 18(02).
  • Baldwin, R. (1990). Hysteresis in trade. In Hysteresis Effects in Economic Models (pp. 19-34). Physica-Verlag HD.
  • Baldwin, R., & Krugman, P. (1989). Persistent trade effects of large exchange rate shocks. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(4), 635-654.
  • Belke, A., & Göcke, M. (2001). Exchange rate uncertainty and employment: an algorithm describing ‘play’. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 17(2), 181-204.
  • Belke, A., Göcke, M., & Günther, M. (2013). Exchange rate bands of inaction and play‐hysteresis in German exports—Sectoral evidence for some OECD destinations. Metroeconomica, 64(1), 152-179.
  • Belke, A. H., Göcke, M., & Werner, L. (2014). Hysteresis Effects in Economics–Different Methods for Describing Economic Path-dependence.
  • Belke, A., Göcke, M., & Werner, L. (2015). Exchange Rate Volatility and other Determinants of Hysteresis in Exports-Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area. Review of Economic Analysis, 7(1), 24-53.
  • Bernard, A. B., & Wagner, J. (2001). Export entry and exit by German firms. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 137(1), 105-123.
  • Campa, J. M. (2004). Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?. European Economic Review, 48(3), 527-548.
  • Dixit, A. (1989a). Hysteresis, import penetration, and exchange rate pass-through. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104(2), 205-228.
  • Dixit, A. (1989b). Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty. Journal of Political Economy, 97(3), 620-638.
  • Krugman, P. R. (1989). Industrial organization and international trade. Handbook of industrial organization, 2, 1179-1223.
  • Özler, Ş., Taymaz, E., & Yilmaz, K. (2009). History matters for the export decision: Plant-level evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry. World Development, 37(2), 479-488.
  • Piscitelli, L., Cross, R., Grinfeld, M., & Lamba, H. (2000). A test for strong hysteresis. Computational Economics, 15(1-2), 59-78.
  • Roberts, M. J., & Tybout, J. R. (1997). The decision to export in Colombia: an empirical model of entry with sunk costs. American Economic Review, 545-564.
  • Timoshenko, O. A. (2015). Learning versus sunk costs explanations of export persistence. European Economic Review, 79, 113-128.
  • Werner, L. M. (2017). Identifying hysteresis non-linearities in trade: Evidence from European wine exports to the U.S.. American Association of Wine Economists Working paper No. 215, 1-37.
  • Werner, L.M. Hysteresis losses in the Preisach framework. Empir Econ 58, 1249–1278 (2020).
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2005). Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity. Journal of applied econometrics, 20(1), 39-54.
Toplam 22 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan 0000-0003-3789-4530

Kurmaş Akdoğan 0000-0002-1297-3737

Yayımlanma Tarihi 22 Ocak 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 17 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023

Kaynak Göster

APA Atabek Demirhan, A., & Akdoğan, K. (2023). BATIK MALİYETLER, İHRACAT VE REEL KUR İLİŞKİSİ. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 24(1), 49-58. https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1037825