Sunk-Costs, Exports and Real Exchange Rate Relation

Öz

Most of the exportation costs are sunk and those sunk-costs generates hysteresis in the export decisions of the firms. Firm-level observed hysteresis in the export behavior may lead to deterioration in the exchange rate export relation at macro-level. In this study, at the first stage using micro data existence of sunk-cost investigated by studying the exportation decision of the Turkish manufacturing firms. Estimation results show that exporting firms are exposed to high sunk costs. In order to examine the possible impacts of the hysteresis caused by sunk costs on the real exchange rate-export relationship at the sector level the Preisach approach is employed. The results indicate that the hysteresis behavior of the firms caused by sunk costs limits the sensitivity of exports to real exchange rate changes in Turkish manufacturing sectors excluding textile, wearing, tobacco, machinery-equipment and communication tools sub-sectors.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sunk-costs
• export behavior
• real exchange rate
• Turkish manufacturing sector

BATIK MALİYETLER, İHRACAT VE REEL KUR İLİŞKİSİ

Öz

İhracata girmeyi planlayan firmaların karşılaşacağı maliyetlerin birçoğu ihracattan vazgeçildiği zaman geri dönüşü olmayan harcamalardan yani batık maliyetlerden oluşmaktadır. Batık maliyetlerin varlığı, firmaların ihracat pazarına girme veya ihracat pazarından çıkma kararlarını gecikmeli olarak almalarına yol açabilmektedir. Firma düzeyinde gözlenen bu atalet aynı zamanda makro düzeyde reel kur-ihracat ilişkisinde bozulmalara da neden olabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada öncelikle firma düzeyinde veriler çerçevesinde imalat sanayi firmalarının ihracat kararlarında atalet etkisi incelenmiştir. Tahmin sonuçları firmaların batık maliyetlere maruz kaldıklarını göstermiştir. Batık maliyetlerin neden olduğu ataletin sektör düzeyinde reel kur-ihracat ilişkisine olası etkilerini incelemek amacıyla Preisach yaklaşımı kullanılarak ihracattaki kalıcılık analizinde kur seviyesinin etkisi incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, ihracata girişte batık maliyetlerin neden olduğu gecikmenin, tekstil, hazır giyim, tütün, makine-teçhizat ve iletişim araçları alt sektörleri haricinde kalan sektörlerde ihracatın reel kur değişimlerine duyarlılığını sınırladığına işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Batık maliyetler
• ihracat davranışları
• reel kur
• Türkiye imalat sanayi

Kaynakça

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