Pasif İşgücü Piyasası Politikalarının İşsizliğe Etkileri: Küresel Kriz Sonrası Türkiye Deneyimi

Öz

Bu çalışmada,Türkiye’de küresel kriz sonrası uygulanan Pasif İşgücü Piyasası Politikalarının PİPP işsizlik üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Söz konusu ilişkiyi analiz etmek için iki ayrı ekonometrik model kurulmuştur. Model-1, Johansen ve Sınır Testi eşbütünleşme analizleri ve regresyon modeli; Model-2, Sınır Testi eşbütünleşme analizi, ARDL ve ECM modellerinden oluşmaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları şu şekildedir: i Toplam PİPP ödemeleri işsizlik oranını kısa dönemde artırmakta, uzun dönemde işsizlik oranı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamaktadır. ii PİPP programları bazında, kısa dönemde ücret garanti fonu ödemeleri,uzun dönemde ise işsizlik sigortası fonu ödemeleri, işsizlik oranını artırmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Küresel Finans Krizi,İşsizlik Oranı, Türkiye İş Kurumu, Pasif İşgücü Piyasası Politikaları.

The Effects of Passive Labor Market Policies on Unemployment: Experience of Turkey after Global Crisis

Öz

This study investigated the effects of Passive Labour Market Policies PLMP’s , which were implemented after the global crisis, on unemployment in Turkey. Two separate econometric models were established to analyse this relationship. Model-1 is composed of Johansen and Bounds Test cointegration analyses and regression whereas Model-2 is composed of Bounds Tests cointegration analysis, ARDL and ECM models. Findings of the study are as follows: i Total PLMP payments increase unemployment rate in the short-run but do not have a significant effect on unemployment rate in the long-run. ii Based on PLMP programs, in the short-run wage guarantee fund payments and in the longrun unemployment insurance fund payments increase unemployment rate

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Global Financial Crisis, Unemployment, Turkish Employment Agency Passive Labour Market Policies.

Kaynakça

1. Aaronson, D., Mazumder B. ve Schechter S. (2010). What is behind the rise in long- term unemployment?. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Economic Perspectives, 2Q, 28-51.
2. Absar, R., Bui T. ve Young K. (2013). The effect of extending unemployment insurance benefits on state unemployment rates. The Public Purpose, 11, 27-47.
3. Aiginger, K., Horvath T. ve Mahringer H. (2011). Why labor market performance differed across countries: The impact of institutions and labor market policy. Paris: OECD Nero-Meeting.
4. Baker, D., Glyn A., Howell D. ve Schmitt J. (2004). Unemployment and labour market institutions: The failure of the empirical case for deregulation. ILO Working Paper, 43, 1- 29.
5. Bassanini, A. ve Duval R. (2006). Employment patterns in OECD countries: Reassessing the role of policies and institutions. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, 35, Erişim adresi OECDiLibrary
6. Belot, M. ve Van Ours J. C. (2000). Does the recent success of some OECD countries in lowering their unemployment rates lie in the clever design of their labour market reforms?. IZA Discussion Paper, (147)
7. Blanchard, O. ve Wolfers J. (2000). The role of shocks and institutions in the rise of European unemployment: The aggregate evidence. Economic Journal, 110, 1-33,
8. Card, D. ve Levine P. B. (2000). Extended benefits and the duration of UI spells: Evidence from the New Jersey extended benefit program. Journal of Public Economics, 78(1-2), 107–138.

9. Çetinkaya, E. (2008). Türkiye’de genç işsizliği ile mücadelede aktif işgücü piyasası politikaları. (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). Sakarya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Sakarya.
10. De Serres, A. ve Murtin F. (2013). Do policies that reduce unemployment raise its volatility?. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 1020, 1-30.
11. Durusoy Öztepe, N. ve Akbaş, S. (2016). Türkiye ve Balkan ülkelerinde işsizlik sorunu ve işsizlik sigortası uygulamaları. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi: Uluslararası Yönetim, Ekonomi ve Politika Kongresi (ICOMEP), 717-731.
12. Elmeskov, J., Martin J., ve Scarpetta S. (1998). Key lessons for labor market reforms: Evidence from OECD Countries’ Experiences. Swedish Economic Policy Review, 5, 205–252.
13. Engle, R. F. ve Granger C.W.F. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
14. Erdoğdu, S. (2010). Küresel krizin istihdama etkileri ve kriz karşıtı işgücü piyasası önlemleri. Memleket Siyaset Yönetim, 5(12), 142-167.
15. Erol, H., Özdemir, A. ve Yurdakul, E. M. (2010). Türkiye’de işsizliğin yol açtığı olumsuz sonuçların giderilmesinde 4447 sayılı İşsizlik Sigortası Kanununun işlevi, TİSK Akademi, 5(10), 7-37.
16. Escudero, V. (2015). Are active labour market policies effective in activating and integrating low-skilled individuals?. An international comparison. ILO Working Paper, 3 Erişim adresi http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/--- inst/documents/publication/wcms_345758.pdf
17. Esteváo, M. (2003). Do active labor market policies increase employment?. IMF Working Paper, 3(234), 1-29.
18. Fialová, K. ve Schneider O. (2008). Labour market institutions and their effect on labour market performance in the new EU member countries. Cesifo Working Paper (2421), 1-27.
19. Figura, A. ve Barnichon R. (2014). The effects of unemployment benefits on unemployment and labor force participation: evidence from 35 years of benefits extensions. Finance and Economics Discussion Series, (65) Washington: Federal Reserve Board.
20. Fitoussi, J., Jestaz P.D., Phelps E.ve Zoega G. (2000). Roots of recent recoveries: Labor reforms or private sector forces?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 237–291.
21. Forslund, A. ve Krueger A. (1997). An evaluation of the active swedish labor market policy: New and received wisdom. The Welfare State in Transition, Chigago: Chicago University Press, 267-298.
22. Fredriksson, P. ve Söderström M. (2008). Do unemployment benefits increase unemployment?. New evidence on an old question. IZA Discussion Paper, (3570)
23. Granger, C.W.J. ve Newbold P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 112-114.
24. Gujarati, D.N. ve Porter D.C. (2012). Temel ekonometri. (Çev. Şenesen Ü., Şenesen G.G.). İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
25. Guzmán, G. (2014) How effective are active employment policies to reduce unemployment in EU countries?. Atlantic Review of Economics, 2. Erişim adresi http://www.unagaliciamoderna.com/eawp/coldata/upload/Vol2_2014_active_em ployment_policies.pdf
26. Hagedorn, M., Karahan F., Manovskii I. ve Mitman K. (2013) Unemployment benefits and unemployment in the great recession: The role of macro effects. NBER Working Paper, 1-41.
27. Hujer, R., Rodrigues J.M. ve Wolf K. (2009). Estimating the macroeconomic effects of active labour market policies using spatial econometric methods. International Journal of Manpower, 30(7), 648-671.
28. Jackman, R., Layard R. ve Nickell S. (1996). Combating unemployment: Is flexibility enough?. London: Centre for Economic Performance-London School of Economics, Discussion Paper, (293).
29. Johansen, S. (1998). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economics Dynamics and Control, 231-254.
30. Johansen, S. ve Juselius K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
31. Juradja, S. ve Tannery F.J. (2003). Unemployment durations and extended unemployment benefits in local labour markets. Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 56(2), 324-348.
32. Karagöl, E., Erbaykal E. ve Ertuğrul H.M. (2007). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ile elektrik tüketimi ilişkisi: Sınır testi yaklaşımı. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 8(1), 72-80.
33. Katz, L. F., ve Meyer B. D. (1990). The impact of the potential duration of unemployment benefits on the duration of unemployment. Journal of Public Economics, 41(1), 45-72.
34. Köstekli, Ş. İ.(2011). Shorter working time and its pay as an effective social policy measure against the economic crisis: The Turkish example. TİSK Akademi, 6(13), 60-85.
35. Kraft, K. (1998). An evaluation of active and passive labour market policy. Applied Economics, 30, 783-793.
36. Layard, R., Nickell S. ve Jackman R. (1991). Unemployment: Macroeconomic performance and the labor market. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
37. Marinescu, I. (2014). The general equilibrium impacts of unemployment insurance: Evidence from a large online job board. Chicago: University of Chicago, Unpublished. Erişim adresi http://www.marinescu.eu/Marinescu_UI_2014.pdf
38. Meyer, B. D. (1990). Unemployment insurance and unemployment spells. Econometrica, 58(4), 757–82.
39. Moffitt, R. (1985). Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells. Journal of Econometrics, 28(1), 85-101.
40. Murrain, F. ve Robin J.M. (2013). Labor market reforms and unemployment dynamics. Cemmap Working Papers, 13(14), 1 -37.
41. Nakajima, M.A. (2012). Quantitative analysis of unemployment benefit extensions. Journal of Monetary Economics, 59(7), 686-702.
42. Nickell, S. (1997). Unemployment and labor market rigidities: Europe versus North America. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(3), 55-74.
43. Nie, J. ve Struby E. (2011). Would active labor market policies help combat high U.S. unemployment?. Economic Review, 96(3), 35-69.
44. OECD. (1993). Employment outlook. Paris: OECD.
45. Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992). A note with quantiles of the asymptotic distribution of the ML cointegration rank test statistics. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 461-72.
46. Özaydın, M. M. (2013). Genç işsizlikle mücadelede aktif işgücü piyasası politikalarının rolü ve önemi. Gençlik Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(2), 120-145.
47. Pesaran, M.H., Shin Y. ve Smith R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics (16), 289-326.
48. Rothstein, J. (2011). Unemployment insurance job in the great recession. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 143-212.
49. Scarpetta, S. (1996). Assessing the role of labor market policies and institutional settings on unemployment: A cross-country study. OECD Economic Studies, 26, 43–98.
50. Seçkin, M.İ. (2013). Kriz dönemlerinde kısa çalışma ve kısa çalışma ödeneği. İstanbul Barosu Dergisi, 87(1), 128-155.
51. Son, L. ve Carica G.G.. (2011). Labour market policies in selected EU member states: A comparative and impact analysis. The Romanian Economic Journal, 39, 151-173.
52. Stock, J. H. ve Watson M.W. (2007). Introduction to econometrics (2nd ed.). Boston: Addison Wesley.
53. Sürücü, M. (2014). İşsizlik, işsizlikle mücadelede pasif istihdam politikaları: Almanya ve Türkiye örnekleri.(Yurt dışı işçi hizmetleri uzmanlık tezi). Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı Dış İlişkiler ve Yurt Dışı İşçi Hizmetleri Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
54. Tarı, R. ve Yıldırım, D.Ç. (2006). Döviz kuru belirsizliğinin ihracata etkisi: Türkiye için bir uygulama. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 16(2), 95-105.
55. Tarı, R. (2014). Ekonometri (10. bs). Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
56. Türkiye İş Kurumu (2017). Erişim adresi www.iskur.gov.tr.
57. Uşen, Ş. (2007). Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ve Türkiye’de aktif emek piyasası politikaları. Çalışma ve Toplum, 2(13), 65-95.
58. Valetta, R. ve Kuang K. (2010). Extended unemployment and UI benefits. FRBSF Economic research/publications/
59. Yazır, S. (2014). Küresel mali krizin Türkiye’de istihdam ve sosyal güvenlik üzerindeki olumsuz etkisi. Erişim adresi www.coe.int/t/dg3/sscssr/Source/Leganal_tk_tk.doc
60. Zetterberg, J. (1995). Unemployment, labor market policy and the wage bargaining system, in labour market policy at the crossroads. EFA-rapport, 34, 57-115.