KÜRESELLEŞME İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: AB ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 1, 343 - 363, 22.01.2023

Murat Çetin , Uğur Çınar

https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1180901

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Avrupa Birliği’ne üye ülkelerde küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu nedenle çalışmada 1995-2019 dönemine ait küreselleşme, finansal gelişme, sermaye, kentleşme ve tasarruf faktörlerinin yer aldığı büyüme modeli kullanılmıştır. Değişkenlerin durağanlık seviyeleri PANIC birim kök testi ile araştırılarak I(1) olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşmenin belirlenmesi üzerine değişkenlerin uzun dönem tahminleri AMG, DOLS ve FMOLS tahmin yöntemleri ile yapılmıştır. Son olarak seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik testi ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular panel genelinde küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif olarak etkilediği yönündedir. Ayrıca küreselleşme ile ekonomik büyüme arasında çift yönlü nedenselliğin varlığı belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme, Ekonomik Büyüme, PANIC, AMG, Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Nedenselliği

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE EXAMPLE OF THE EU

Öz

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of globalization on economic growth in the member countries of the European Union. For this reason, the growth model that includes the factors of globalization, financial development, capital, urbanization and savings for the period of 1995-2019 was used in the study. The stationarity levels of the variables were investigated with the PANIC unit root test and determined to be I(1). After determining the cointegration between the series, the long-term estimates of the variables were made by using the AMG, DOLS and FMOLS estimation methods. Finally, the causal relationship between the series was carried out with the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test. Empirical findings show that the globalization positively affects economic growth throughout the panel. In addition, the existence of bidirectional causality between globalization and economic growth was determined.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, Economic Growth, PANIC, AMG, Dumitrescu-Hurlin Panel Causality

Kaynakça

• Abdelbary, I. ve Benhin, J. (2019). Governance, capital and economic growth in the Arab Region. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 73, 184-191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2018.04.007
• Acheampong, A. O., Boateng, E., Amponsah, M. ve Dzator, J. (2021). Revisiting the economic growth–energy consumption nexus: Does globalization matter?. Energy Economics, 102, 105472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105472
• Aissaoui, R. ve Fabian, F. (2021). Globalization, economic development, and corruption: A cross-lagged contingency perspective. Journal of International Business Policy, 1-28. https://doi.org/10.1057/s42214-020-00091-5
• Akça, H.S. (2018). Ekonomik büyüme ve inovasyon ilişkisi: Seçilmiş OECD ülkeleri üzerine panel veri analizi. (Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Karatay Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Konya.
• Altiner, A., Bozkurt, E. ve Toktaş, Y. (2018). Küreselleşme ve ekonomik büyüme: Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri için bir uygulama. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, (639), 1117-1161. Erişim adresi https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/787482
• Baddeley, M. (2006). Convergence or divergence? The impacts of globalisation on growth and inequality in less developed countries. International Review of Applied Economics, 20(3), 391-410. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692170600736250
• Bai, J. ve Ng, S. (2004). A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration. Econometrica, 72(4), 1127-1177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2004.00528.x
• Bai, J. ve Ng, S. (2010). Panel unit root tests with cross-section dependence: a further investigation. Econometric Theory, 26(4), 1088-1114. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466609990478
• Baltagi, B. H., Feng, Q. ve Kao, C. (2012). A Lagrange multiplier test for cross-sectional dependence in a fixed effects panel data model. Journal of Econometrics, 170(1), 164-177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.04.004
• Barış, S. (2020). Are savings the determinant of economic growth in the D8 countries ?. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18(2), 403-414. https://doi.org/10.18026/cbayarsos.753927
• Bist, J.P. (2018). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of 16 African and non-African low-income countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6 (1), 1449780. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1449780
• Breusch, T.S. ve Pagan, A.R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Rev. Econ. Stud. 47, 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
• Burhan, N. A. S., Sidek, A. H., Kurniawan, Y. ve Mohamad, M. R. (2015). Has globalization triggered collective impact of national intelligence on economic growth?. Intelligence, 48, 152-161. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2014.11.003
• Çelik, M. Y. ve Ünsür, Z. (2020). Küreselleşme ve büyüme ilişkisinin Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik testi ile belirlenmesi. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 35(1), 201-210. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.202035115
• Chang, C. P. ve Lee, C. C. (2010). Globalization and economic growth: A political economy analysis for OECD countries. Global Economic Review, 39(2), 151-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/1226508X.2010.483835
• Doğan, B. (2017). Ekonomik küreselleşme ve büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, (628), 19-27. Erişim adresi https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/787826
• Doğan, B. ve Muhlis, C. A. N. (2016). Küreselleşmenin büyümeye etkisi: Güney Kore örnekleminde eşbütünleşme analizi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 197-220. Erişim adresi https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/382468
• Dumitrescu, E. I. ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
• Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator. Erişim adresi https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17692/1/MPRA_paper_17692.pdf
• Eberhardt, M. ve F. Teal. 2011. Econometrics for grumblers: A new look at the literature on crosscountry growth empirics. Journal of Economic Surveys 25, 109-155. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2010.00624.x
• Eren, M. V. ve Çütcü, İ. (2018). Küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye üzerine ekonometrik bir analiz. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 47-61. Erişim adresi https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1022925
• Gülmez, A. ve Akpolat, A.G. (2014). Ar-Ge & inovasyon ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye ve AB örneği için dinamik panel veri analizi. AİBÜ Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14: 1-17. Erişim adresi https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337420812
• Grossman, G. M. ve Helpman, E. (2015). Globalization and growth. American Economic Review, 105(5), 100-104. 10.1257/aer.p20151068
• Hassan, S. T., Xia, E., Huang, J., Khan, N. H. ve Iqbal, K. (2019). Natural resources, globalization, and economic growth: evidence from Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(15), 15527-15534. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04890-z
• Hayaloğlu, P., Kalaycı, C. ve Artan, S. (2015). Küreselleşme farklı gelir grubundaki ülkelerde ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilemektedir. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(1), 119-152. Erişim adresi https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/oguiibf/issue/56487/785422
• Hussain, M., Ye, Z., Bashir, A., Chaudhry, N. I. ve Zhao, Y. (2021). A nexus of natural resource rents, institutional quality, human capital, and financial development in resource-rich high-income economies. Resources Policy, 74, 102259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102259
• IMF, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.11.2021). https://data.imf.org/?sk=F8032E80-B36C-43B1-AC26-493C5B1CD33B Kandil, M., Shahbaz, M., Mahalik, M. K. ve Nguyen, D. K. (2017). The drivers of economic growth in China and India: globalization or financial development ?. International Journal of Development Issues, 16 (1), 54-84. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJDI-06-2016-0036
• Kaurin, B. ve Simic, V. (2017). Globalisation and growth: Empirical evidence from CEE countries. Economic and Social Development: Book of Proceedings, 274-282.
• King, R.G. ve Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (3), 717-737. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118406
• KOF, (Erişim Tarihi: 15.07.2022). https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html
• Lopez, L. ve Weber, S. (2017). Testing for Granger causality in panel data. The Stata Journal, 17(4), 972-984. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1801700412
• Marques, L. M., Fuinhas, J. A. ve Marques, A. C. (2017). Augmented energy-growth nexus: economic, political and social globalization impacts. Energy Procedia, 136, 97-101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.10.293
• Maqbool-ur-Rahman, M. (2015). Impacts of globalization on economic growth-evidence from selected South Asian countries. Journal of Management Sciences, 2(1), 185-204. DOI:10.20547/jms.2014.021/1501103
• Nguyen, V.C.T. ve Le, H.Q. (2021). Globalızatıon and economıc growth: An empirical evidence from Vıetnam. Örgütsel Davranış Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 173-188. https://Doi.Org/10.51847/1PIOmlpSNh
• Nguyen, H. M. ve Nguyen L. D. (2018). The relationship between urbanization and economic growth: An empirical study on ASEAN countries. International Journal of Social Economics, 45 (2), 316-339. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-12-2016-0358
• Odhiambo, N.M. (2009). Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test. Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, 708–718. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.04.001
• Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxf Bull Econ Stat.61(S1):653–670. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0084.0610s1653
• Pedroni, P. (2004) Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econom Theory 20(03):597–625. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466604203073
• Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge working papers in economics. Paper no. 0435. Erişim adresi https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
• Pesaran, M. H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
• Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J. ve Ghosh, S. (2015). Is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic? Evidence from a sample of Middle-Income countries. World Development, 68, 66–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.11.010
• Santiago, R., Fuinhas, J. A. ve Marques, A. C. (2020). The impact of globalization and economic freedom on economic growth: the case of the Latin America and Caribbean countries. Economic Change and Restructuring, 53(1), 61-85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-018-9239-4
• Sargan, J.D. ve A. Bhargava (1983) Testing for residuals from least squares regression being generated by Gaussian random walk. Econometrica 51, 153–174. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912252
• Saygın, S. Ü. (2021). Küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: E7 ülkeleri için bir uygulama. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(2), 1327-1347. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.853659
• Singh, A. (2003). Capital account liberalization, free long-term capital flows, financial crises and economic development. Eastern Economic Journal, 29(2), 191-216. Erişim adresi https://www.researchgate.net/publication/5220780
• Singh, T. (2010). Does domestic saving cause economic growth? A time-series evidence from India. Journal of Policy Modeling, 32, 231-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.08.008
• Stock, J. H. ve Watson, M. W. (1988). Testing for common trends. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83(404), 1097-1107. 10.1080/01621459.1988.10478707
• Tekbaş, M. (2019). BRICS-T ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme ve küreselleşme ilişkisi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(3), 397-412. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.615249
• Turok, I., ve McGranahan, G. (2013). Urbanization and economic growth: the arguments and evidence for Africa and Asia. Environment and Urbanization, 25 (2), 465-482. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247813490908
• Ursavaş, U. (2020). The interaction effect of globalization and human capital on economic growth: The case of Turkey. Third Sector Social Economic Review, 55(4), 2157-2167. 10.15659/3.sektor-sosyal-ekonomi.20.10.1423
• Usman, M., Jahanger, A., Makhdum, M. S. A., Balsalobre-Lorente, D. ve Bashir, A. (2021). How do financial development, energy consumption, natural resources, and globalization affect Arctic countries' economic growth and environmental quality? An advanced panel data simulation. Energy, 122515. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122515
• Vo, D. H., Nguyen, N. T., Vo, A. T., Ho, C. M. ve Nguyen, T. C. (2021). Does the Kuznets curve apply for financial development and environmental degradation in the Asia-Pacific region?. Heliyon, 7(4), e06708. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06708
• Ying, Y. H., Chang, K. ve Lee, C. H. (2014). The impact of globalization on economic growth. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 17(2), 25-34. Erişim adresi https://ipe.ro/rjef/rjef2_14/rjef2_2014p25-34.pdf
• Qiao, H., Chen, S., Dong, X. ve Dong, K. (2019). Has China's coal consumption actually reached its peak? National and regional analysis considering cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity. Energy Economics, 84, 104509. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104509
• Westerlund, J. (2005). New simple tests for panel cointegration. Econometric Reviews, 24(3), 297-316. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930500243019
• Williamson, J. (1990). The Washington consensus. Richard M. Auty · John Toye (Ed.), Challenging the Orthodoxies içinde (13-14. ss.). Macmillan Press LTD.
• WorldBank, (Erişim Tarihi: 16.11.2021). https://databank.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/1ff4a498/Popular-Indicators#
• Wu, C. F., Huang, S. C., Chang, T., Chiou, C. C. ve Hsueh, H. P. (2020). The nexus of financial development and economic growth across major Asian economies: Evidence from bootstrap ARDL testing and machine learning approach. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 372, 112660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2019.112660