SEÇİMLERDE YAŞANAN OY DEĞİŞKENLİKLERİ

Yıl 2005, Sayı: 13, - , 20.06.2015

Şaban Sitembölükbaşı

Öz

This article is aimed at examining what are the common conditions that affect electoral volatility in democratic systems. In the article firstly problems of definition and measurement associated with electoral volatility are discussed. Then the role of the independent voters in electoral volatility, an important factor in electoral inconsistencies, is examined. The correlation between the short-term and long-term factors affecting electoral fluctuations and electoral volatility are tried to be determined, and the effects of low and high volatility upon democratic systems are researched. Lastly examining the electoral volatility and its reasons during the multi-party period of Turkey, it is sought to find out which long and short factors affect electoral volatility in the case of Turkey

Anahtar Kelimeler

Elections, voting behaviour, electoral volatility

SEÇİMLERDE YAŞANAN OY DEĞİŞKENLİKLERİ

Öz

Bu makale, seçimlerde görülen oy değişkenliklerini belli açılardın incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Makalede öncelikle oy değişkenlikleri ile ilgili tanım ve ölçme sorunlarına değinilmekte, daha sonra oy değişkenliğinde önemli bir faktör olan bağımsız seçmenlerin oy değişkenliğinde oynadığı rol incelenmektedir. Oy değişkenliğine etki eden kısa ve uzun vadeli faktörler de ayrı bir başlık halinde ele alınarak düşük ve yüksek oy dalgalanmalarının demokrasiye yaptığı etkiler araştırılmaktadır. Son olarak uzun bir demokrasi deneyimine sahip olan Batı Avrupa ve ABD örnekleri bağlamında oy değişkenliğindeki genel eğilimlerin belli bir istikrara mı yoksa yüksek bir dalgalanmaya mı yönelmekte olduğu sorusunun cevabı araştırılmaktadır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Seçimler, seçmen davranışları, oy değişkenlikleri

Kaynakça

• BARTOLINI, Stefano ve Peter MAIR, Identity, Competition, and Electoral Availability: The Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885- 1985, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.
• BROWN, Courtney, Ballots of Tumult: A Portrait of Volatility in American Voting, The University of Michigan Press, 1991.
• BUDGE, Ian, “Electoral Volatility: Issue Effects and Basic Change in 23 Post-War Democracies”, Electoral Studies, no.1, (1982), ss.147-168.
• CONVERSE, Philip E., "Of Time and Partisan Stability" Comparative Political Studies, no.2, (1969), ss.139-171.
• COPPEDGE, Michael, “The Dynamic Diversity of Latin American Party Systems”, <http://www.nd.edu/~mcoppedg/crd/ddlaps.htm> (25.06.2004)
• COTTA, Maurizio, “Structuring the New Party Systems After the Dictatorship: Coalitions, Alliances, Fusionsand Splits During the Transition and Post-Transition Phase”, Geoffrey PRıDHAM ve G. LEWIS (eds.), Stabilising Fragile Democracies: Comparing New Party Systems in Southern and Eastern Europe, Routledge, London ve New York, 1996.
• CREWE, Ivor ve David DENVER (eds.), Electoral Change in Western Democracies: Patterns and Sources of Electoral Volatility Croom Helm Ltd., London, 1985
• DALTON, Russell J. ve Martin P. WATTENBERG, “Partisan Change and the Democratic Process”, Russell J. DALTON ve Martin P. WATTENBERG (eds.), Parties Without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies,. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2000.
• DALTON, Russell J., Scott C. FLANAGAN ve Paul BECK (eds.), Electoral Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies: Realignment or Dealignment?, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1984
• DRUMMOND, Andrew, "Electoral Volatility and Party Decline in Western Democracies: 1970-1995", Center for the Study of Democracy, (March 2, 2002), <http://repositories.cdlib.org/csd/02-02> (25.06.2004).
• DUNCAN, Phil, “Outlook Still Ominous for Incumbents”, Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, c. 51, no. 46, (November 1993), s.3234.
• DUVERGER, M., Political Parties: Their Organisation and Activity in the Modern State, 2nd ed. John Wiley, London, 1959.
• “Flighty”, Economist, c.335, no.7910 (April 1995), ss.47-48.
• GAGLIOTI, Frank, “By-Election Result Reveals Ongoing Volatility in Rural Australia”, World Socialist Web Site, <http://www.wsws.org/articles/ 2000/may2000/vic-m25.shtml > (25.06.2004).
• JANDA, Kenneth, Jeffery BERRY ve Jerry GOLDMAN, The Challenge of Democracy, 5th edition, Houghton Mifflin, Boston, 1997.
• JENNIFER, Mona, “Portrait of America”, Economist, c.338, no.7952, (Ekim 1996), s.34.
• KEITH, Bruce, E., David, B. MAGLEBY, Candice J. NELSON, Elizabeth ORR, Mark C. WESTLY ve Raymond E. WOLFINGER, The Myth of the Independent Voter, University of California Press, Los Angeles, 1992.
• KORASTELEVA, Elena A., "Electoral Volatility in Postcommunist Belarus: Explaining the Paradox," Party Politics, no.6 (Temmuz 2000), ss. 343-358.
• LIPSET, Seymour M. ve Stein ROKKAN (eds.), Party Systems and Voter Alignments: Cross-National Perspectives,.Free Press, New York, 1967.
• MAINWARING, Scott, "Electoral Volatility in Brazil,” Party Politics, no.4 (Ekim 1998), 523-545.
• MAINWARING, Scott ve Timothy R. SCULLY, Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America, Stanford University Press, Stanford, CA, 1995.
• MAIR, Peter, Party System Change: Approaches and Interpretations: Oxford University Pres, New York, 1997.
• PEDERSEN, Mogens, ‘The Dynamics of European Party Systems: Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility”, European Journal of Political Research, no.7, (1979), ss.1-26.
• PEDERSEN, Mogens, “Changing Patterns of Electoral Volatility in European Party Systems 1948-1977: Explorations and Explanation”, Hans
• Daalder ve Peter Mair (eds.), Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change,.Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, 1983.
• “Politics”, Peace Research Abstracts Journal, c.35, no.6 (Aralık 1998), s.8
• RICE, Tom W., “Partisan Change Among Native White Southerners: 1965- 1982”, American Politics Quarterly, c.22, no.2 (Nisan 1994), ss.244-251.
• ROSE, Richard, Neil MUNRO ve Tom MACKIE, Elections in Central and Eastern Europe Since 1990, Centre for the Study of Public Policy,
• University of Strathclyde, Strathclyde, 1998.
• ROSE, Richard ve Derek W. URWIN, “Persistence and Change in Western Party Systems Since 1945” Political Studies, c.18, no.3 (1970), ss.287-319.
• TAN, Alexander C. ve Karl HO, “What if We Don't Party? Political Partisanship in Taiwan and Korea in the 1990s”, Journal of Asian and African Studies, c.35, no.1 (2000), ss.67-84.
• TOKA, Gabor, “Party Appeals and Voter Loyalty in New Democracies”, Political Studies, c.46, no.3, ss.589-610. WOODWARD, Dennis ve Brian COSTAR, “The Victorian Election of 18 September 1999: Another Case of Electoral Volatility?”, Australian
• Journal of Political Science, c.35, no.1 (Mart 2000), ss.125-133.
• WYMAN, Matthew, Stephen WHITE, Bill MILLER ve Paul HEYWOOD, “The Place of Party in Post-Communist Europe”, Party Politics, c.1, v.4, (1995), ss.535-48.
• ZOGBY, James, “Voter Volatility and Arab Americans” Al-Ahram Weekly, no. 475, (30 March - 5 April 2000).