LİKİDİTE YÖNETİMİ İLE FİNANSAL BAŞARININ NEDENSEL ANALİZİ: BIST BANKA ENDEKSİNDE BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Öz

Bankaların likiditeyi etkin şekilde yönetebilme kapasitesi, hem kârlılıkları hem de finansal sistemin istikrarı açısından kritik bir rol üstlenmektedir. Bu nedenle likidite göstergelerinin finansal başarı üzerindeki etkisinin analiz edilmesi, bankaların sürdürülebilirliği ve risk yönetim performansının geliştirilmesi açısından önem taşımaktadır. Literatürde nakit rezerv oranı, kredi/aktif oranı ve kredi/mevduat oranı gibi göstergelerin finansal sonuçlara etkisini inceleyen çalışmaların sınırlı olması, konunun daha kapsamlı ele alınmasını gerekli kılmaktadır. Bu çalışma BIST Banka Endeksi’nde yer alan dokuz bankanın 2008–2025 dönemine ait verilerini kullanarak likidite yönetiminin finansal başarı üzerindeki etkilerini değerlendirmektedir. Bulgular likidite ve banka özelliklerinin kârlılık üzerinde farklı yönlü etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Aşırı nakit bulundurmanın özsermaye kârlılığını sınırladığı, banka büyüklüğünün her iki kârlılık göstergesini artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Kredi/mevduat oranının aktif kârlılığı düşürdüğü, kredi/aktif oranının ise olumlu katkı sağladığı belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, etkin likidite yönetimi ve ölçek avantajlarının doğru kullanımı, bankaların finansal başarısını artırmada belirleyici unsurlar olarak ortaya çıkmaktadır. Ayrıca Granger nedensellik testleri (Dumitrescu ve Hurlin, 2012) sonuçları kredi/aktif oranı ile kârlılık arasında çift yönlü, kredi/mevduat oranı ile hem ROE hem ROA arasında çift yönlü ve banka büyüklüğü ile kârlılık arasında tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Nakit rezerv oranı ile kârlılık arasında ise anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Likidite Yönetimi
• Finansal Başarı
• BIST Banka Endeksi
• Panel Veri Analizi.

CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE BIST BANKING INDEX

Öz

The ability of banks to manage liquidity effectively plays a critical role not only in their profitability but also in the stability of the financial system. Therefore, analyzing the impact of liquidity indicators on financial performance is of strategic importance for enhancing banks’ sustainability and risk management effectiveness. The literature shows that studies examining the effects of key indicators such as cash reserve ratio, loan-to-asset ratio, and loan-to-deposit ratio on financial outcomes are limited, highlighting the need for a more comprehensive investigation. This study evaluates the impact of liquidity management on the financial performance of nine banks included in the BIST Bank Index over the period 2008–2025. The findings indicate that liquidity and bank-specific characteristics have diverse effects on profitability. Excessive cash holdings constrain return on equity, while firm size positively influences both return on equity and return on assets. The loan-to-deposit ratio negatively affects return on assets, whereas the loan-to-asset ratio contributes positively. In conclusion, effective liquidity management and the optimal utilization of scale advantages emerge as key determinants of banks’ financial performance. Furthermore the results of the Granger causality tests (Dumitrescu and Hurlin, 2012) indicate a bidirectional causal relationship between the credit-to-assets ratio and profitability, as well as between the credit-to-deposit ratio and profitability. In contrast, firm size exhibits a unidirectional causal relationship with profitability. No significant causal relationship was found between the cash reserve ratio and profitability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Liquidity Management
• Financial Performance
• BIST Bank Index
• Panel DataAnalysis.

Kaynakça

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