FITCH KREDİ NOTUNUN KURUMSAL VE MAKROEKONOMİK BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN ARDL YAKLAŞIMINA DAYALI BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin kredi notunu belirleyen temel unsurları yönetişim göstergeleri ve makroekonomik değişkenler çerçevesinde ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımıyla analiz etmektedir. 1994-2023 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen analizde, kredi notunun uzun dönemde hükümet etkinliği (HE) ve düzenleyici kalite (DK) tarafından güçlü ve pozitif biçimde belirlendiği tespit edilmiştir. Buna karşılık hukukun üstünlüğü (HÜ) değişkeninin ise modelde sınırlı negatif etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir. Makroekonomik değişkenlerden enflasyon (ENF) uzun dönemde kredi notunu olumsuz etkilerken, dış borcun (DB) sınırlı düzeyde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu bulunmuştur. Kısa dönem sonuçları, özellikle HE değişkeninin gecikmeli farklarının kredi notu üzerinde güçlü ve negatif etkiler oluşturduğunu; DB dinamiklerinin ise kısa vadede pozitif ancak gecikmeli olarak negatif ve beklenen sonuca paralel etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. ECM katsayısının beklenilen aralıkta olması, kısa dönem dengesizliklerinin hızlı biçimde giderildiğini ve güçlü bir uzun dönem ilişkisinin varlığını teyit etmektedir. Tanı testleri modelin istatistiksel olarak güvenilir ve yapısal açıdan stabil olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, Türkiye’nin kredi notunun kurumsal yönetişim kalitesi ve makroekonomik istikrar unsurlarına duyarlı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yönetişim Göstergeleri
• Kredi Notu
• ARDL Analizi

INSTITUTIONAL AND MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FITCH CREDIT RATING: AN ANALYSIS BASED ON THE ARDL APPROACH FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Öz

This study analyzes the key determinants of Turkey's credit rating using the ARDL bounds test approach within the framework of governance indicators and macroeconomic variables. Using annual data for the 1994-2023 period, the analysis finds that government effectiveness (GE) and regulatory quality (RQ) are strongly and positively determined by the credit rating in the long run. Conversely, the rule of law (RL) variable has a limited negative impact on the model. Among the macroeconomic variables, inflation (INF) negatively affects the credit rating in the long run, while external debt (ED) has a limited positive impact. The short-term results indicate that lagged differences in the GE variable, in particular, have a strong and negative impact on the credit rating, while ED dynamics have a positive effect in the short run but a negative effect with a lag, parallel to the expected outcome. The fact that the ECM coefficient is within the expected range confirms that short-term imbalances are quickly resolved and that there is a strong long-term relationship. Diagnostic tests indicate that the model is statistically reliable and structurally stable. The findings reveal that Turkey's credit rating is sensitive to the quality of corporate governance and macroeconomic stability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Governance Indicators
• Credit Rating
• ARDL Analysis.

Kaynakça

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