Assessment of drought in Van province according to SPI and SPEI methods

Abstract

The effects of drought have been increasing day by day, especially in recent years, as a result of climate change and human activities. Thus, water resources, agriculture and living organisms are negatively affected. In this study, in order to determine how Van province is affected by drought, drought analysis was carried out in 1,3,6,9 and 12-month time periods by using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) methods which are widely used in the literature. When the results obtained were analyzed, according to the SPI method, Erciş district was determined as the region with the most extreme drought periods, while Özalp district was determined as the region with the most extreme wet periods. According to the SPEI method, the region with the most extreme drought periods was determined as Özalp district, while the districts with the most extreme wet periods were determined as Erciş and Başkale districts, especially in long time periods. As a result, although both methods generally give similar results, it was observed that larger values were calculated according to the SPI method, especially in the calculation of extreme drought and wet events. Based on the results obtained, it is evaluated that the extreme events calculated according to the SPI method for drought assessment should be used with caution due to the high number of extreme events calculated according to the SPI method, and the SPEI method, which also takes into account the effect of temperature, can be preferred instead of the SPI method.

Keywords

• Drought
• SPI (Standard Precipitation Index) SPEI (Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)
• Van Province

Van ilinin kuraklığının SPI ve SPEI yöntemlerine göre değerlendirilmesi

Öz

Özellikle son yıllarda iklim değişikliğinin ve insan faaliyetlerinin bir sonucu olarak kuraklık olayının etkisi her geçen gün artmaktadır. Bunun sonucu olarak su kaynakları, tarım ve canlılar olumsuz olarak etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Van ilinin kuraklık olayından nasıl etkilendiğini tespit edebilmek amacıyla literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan Standart Yağış İndeksi (SPI) ve Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi (SPEI) yöntemleri kullanılarak 1,3,6,9 ve 12 aylık zaman periyotlarında kuraklık analizi yapılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlar incelendiğinde SPI yöntemine göre aşırı kurak dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü bölge Erciş ilçesi olarak belirlenirken, aşırı nemli dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü bölge ise Özalp ilçesi olarak belirlenmiştir. SPEI yöntemine göre ise aşırı kurak dönemin en çok görüldüğü bölge Özalp ilçesi olurken, aşırı nemli dönemlerin en çok görüldüğü ilçeler ise özellikle uzun zaman periyotlarında Erciş ve Başkale ilçeleri olarak belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak her iki yöntem genel olarak birbirine yakın sonuçlar verse de özellikle ekstrem kuraklık ve nemlilik olaylarının hesabında SPI yöntemine göre daha büyük değerlerin hesaplandığı görülmüştür. Elde edilen sonuçlar incelendiğinde kuraklık değerlendirmesi için SPI yöntemine göre hesaplanan ekstrem olayların fazla olması nedeni ile dikkatli kullanılması, SPI yöntemi yerine sıcaklığın da etkisinin göz önüne alındığı SPEI yönteminin tercih edilebileceği değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kuraklık
• SPI (Standart Yağış İndeksi)
• SPEI (Standart Yağış Evapotranspirasyon İndeksi)
• Van İli

Kaynakça

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