Öz

Para rejimleri ve onların etkileri hem gelişmiş ülkelerde hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde geniş bir şekilde tartışılmaktadır. Bu çalışma Avrupa’nın parasal bütünleşmesinin optium para alanı (OPA) açısından anlamını literatrüre yapılan klasik katkılar çerçevesinde tartışmaktadır. Çalışma, OPA’nın temel özellikleri teknik olarak geliştirildiği halde, bu alanda tam anlamıyla birleşik bir teori olmadığını göstermektedir. Avrupa’nın ekonomik ve parasal birlik konusundaki deneyimi bu tepiti doğrulamaktadır. Ayrıca, çalışma tek bir paranın üyeler, benzer ekonomik yapılara ve uluslararası ticaret özelliklerine sahip olduğunda yaşam standardını yükselttiğini, ancak aksi durumda saptırdığını göstermektedir. Bundan dolayı Türkiye dahil aday ülkelerle birlikte genişleme süreci, parasal birliğin sağlanması anlamında Avrupa Birliği’nin geleceğine hem fırsatlar hem de tehditler sunmaktadır

WHY EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT AN OPTIMAL CURRENCY AREA: THE LIMITS OF INTEGRATION

Öz

Currency regimes and their effects have been studied widely in both developed and developing countries. This study discusses what European monetary unification is telling about the interpretation of the optimum currency area (OCA) in the framework of classical contributions to the literature. The study concludes that although several weaknesses of the analytical framework of the early OCA theory have been modified and some of the OCA properties have technically sophisticated, there is no unified theory in this area. The experiment of Europe with economic and monetary union intensify this conviction. Moreover, it concludes that a single currency advances members’ living standarts when they have similar economic structures and international trading patterns, but proves detrimental when these diverge. Therefore, it can be said that the enlargement process with the new candidate countries including Turkey puts forward both opportunities and threats for the future of European Union in terms of achieving a currency union.

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90. Indicators, Available from: http://www.worldbank.org. APPENDIX Belgium Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 7 7.4 2.3 2.7 2.3 58 43.18 43.31 41.30 39.30 2.6 7 120.1 125.7 131.3 126.9 5 6 1.3 53 40.62 2.1 2 118.1 8 1
91. Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 7.9 7.1 5.8 3.2 6 5 1 5 9 1.8 3.0 1.2 1.5 * 0 7.7 8.7 8.5 9.8 7 2.8 Per Capita Nominal GNP ($), 23820 24574 Unemployment (%) 5 8.5 Denmark Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rates
92. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 6 7 6 7 94 9 1 2 8 0 2.4 0.7 7 1 5 4 0 8 7 2 2 3 2.0 1.4 2.0 2.7 2.9 1.7 * 0 6.4 6.4 8.6 6.9 6.1 5.4
93. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment 32179 33045 (%) Germany Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate
94. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 06 4 3 41.7 43.8 58.0 60.4 61.3 61.2 1 2.9 5 08 8 6 08 4 3 1.7 3.4 2.1 1.4 2.2 2.6 * 7 4.2 5.9 7.3 8.8 9.7 9.8
95. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment 25470 26226 (%) Greece Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate
96. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 5 17 : 1 51.6 90.1 110.1 111.6 : 37 11.7 7.5 4.0 7 : : 6 : : : 7 2.5 1.9 1.1 2.6 3.5 3.8 * 5 3.8 6.6 8.3 9.6 9.5 9.2
97. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment 11438 11456 (%) France Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate
98. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 4 36 4 : 0 5 7 7 0 1 4 2.2 3.2 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.0 * 0 6.4 9.7 11.1 12.4
99. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment 23789 24497 (%) 5 9 Ireland Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate
100. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 41 3.7 2 : 6 2 5 3 3 2 4 3.8 4.7 5.9 8.6 10.0 * 6 7
101. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment (%) Italy Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 6 5 5 6 2 4 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 9 70 3.1 3 82.3 98.0 124.2 124.0 0 7 9 69 1505.32 1803.02 1959 9.6 3 4 3 1944 2.7 6 7 3 1 3 0 2 3 2.7 3.0 1.1 0.7 1.5 2.4 * 0 7.0 9.6 10.3 12.0
102. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment 19913 20448 (%) 1 0 Luxemburg Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate
103. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 0 7.4 2.4 3.0 1.6 1.4 1.6 04 50 18 22 : 5 13.0 4.7 5.9 6.6 6.7 7.1 : : 0 1.8 6.4 5.4 3.0 4.1 4.4 * 0 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.3 3.7 3.9
104. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment 37346 38639 (%) Netherlands Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate
105. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 1 5 7 9 3 2 3 0.7 : 9 4 1 4 2 6 0 9 1.9 3.1 2.1 3.3 3.3 3.7 1 7.1 7.4 6.4 6.3 5.3 4.4
106. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment 23280 24225 (%) Portugal Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 9 30 4 94 51 86 76 198.59 201.7
107. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 5 : 4 61.9 65.3 65.9 65.0 62.0 60.0 5.4 : 3.2 2.5 2.2 : 9 2.2 5.0 1.4 3.6 3.7 4.0 * 5 6.9 6.1 5.6 7.3 6.4 6.2 Per Capita Nominal GNP ($), 10184 10580 Unemployment (%) Spain Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate
108. Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 5 47 : 6 1 43.7 44.8 65.5 70.1 68.8 67.4 : 5.7 2.8 3.7 4.6 2.6 2.2 : 2 1.9 4.5 1.3 2.3 3.4 3.6 *
109. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment (%) United Kingdom Nominal Indicators Inflation Exchange Rate Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) General Government Gross Debt Long term interest rates (%) Reel Indicators GDP 13530 14088 73 1974-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996 1997 1998 8 41 0.3 1 3 53.8 35.5 53.9 54.7 53.4 52.3 76 5.8 4.8 1.9 0.6 3.6 0.7 1 1.4 3.3 1.3 2.3 3.5 1.9 * 9 6.9 9.0 9.5 8.2 7.1 6.5
110. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($) Unemployment 21740 23056 (%) * For 1966-1973 Nominal Indicators
111. Inflation (price deflator private consumption) Exchange Rates (annual average national currency per ecu) Net Lending (+) or net borrowing (-) of general government (% of GDP) General Government Gross Debt End of period (% of GDP) Long term interest rates (%) (Government bond yield) Reel Indicators Gross Domestic Product (at 1990 prices)
112. Per Capita Nominal GNP ($), After 1991 Per Capita Nominal GDP ($) Unemployment (%)