TÜRKİYE’DE BİLGİ İLETİŞİM TEKNOLOJİLERİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ (1980-2008)

Year 2010, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 575 - 596, 01.05.2010

Sevda Yapraklı Tuncay Sağlam

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de bilgi iletişim teknolojileri (BİT) ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu amaçla 1980-2008 dönemi için, BİT ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler, çok değişkenli eş-bütünleşme analizi, hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik testleri ve vektör hata düzeltme modeli kullanılarak ekonometrik açıdan analiz edilmektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, kısa ve uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme BİT’ten pozitif olarak etkilenmektedir. Bununla birlikte, Türkiye’de BİT’in ekonomik büyümeye katkısının diğer üretim faktörlerine göre daha düşük oranda olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Hata düzeltme-geliştirilmiş Granger nedensellik testleri, ekonomik büyüme ile bilgi arasında iki yönlü bir nedenselliğin bulunduğunu göstermektedir

Keywords

Bilgi ĠletiĢim Teknolojileri, Ekonomik Büyüme, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Granger Nedenselliği, VEC Modeli

INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS (1980-2008)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between information and communications technology and economic growth in Turkey. For this purpose for the period of 1980-2008, the relationships between ICT and real economic growth rate are analyzed econometrically by employing multivariate cointegration analysis, error correction-augmented Granger causality tests and vector error correction model. According to the results, economic growth is positively effected by ICT in the short and long run. However, it is observed that the contribution of ICT to the economic growth is less than that of other product factors in Turkey. Error correction-augmented Granger causality tests show that there is bi-directional causality between ICT and economic growth

Keywords

Information and Communications Technology, Economic Growth, Turkish Economy, Granger Causality, VEC Model

References

• ATEŞ, S. (1998): Yeni İçsel Büyüme Teorileri ve Türkiye Ekonomisinin Büyüme Dinamiklerinin Analizi, (Basılmamış Doktora Tezi), Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Adana.
• BOSKIN, M.J. and LAU, L.J. (2000): “Generalized Solow-Neutral Technical Progress and Postwar Economic Growth”, 2000, NBER Working Paper, No. 8023: 1-39.
• BOZKURT, H. ve DURSUN, G. (2006): “Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri ile Yabancı Doğrudan Yatırım Akımları Arasındaki Etkileşim: Türkiye İçin Kointegrasyon Analizi, 1980-2004”, Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, I-I (I-II): 37-49.
• BRYNJOLFSSON, E. and HITT, L. (1996): “Paradox Lost? Firm-Level Evidence of The Returns to Information Systems Spending”, Management Science, 42: 541-558.
• CEYHUN, Y. ve ÇAĞLAYAN, M.U. ( 1997): Bilgi Teknolojileri Türkiye İçin Nasıl Bir Gelecek Hazırlamakta, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, Ankara.
• CHAREMZA, W.W. and DEADMAN, D.F. (1993): New Directions in Econometric Practice: General to Specific Modelling Cointegration and Vector Autoregression, Aldershot, Hanst: Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, Cambridge.
• COE, D.T.; HELPMAN, E. and HOFFMAISTER, A.W. (1997): “North-South R-D Spillovers, Economic Journal, 107: 134-149.
• COLECCHIA, A. and SCHREYER, P. (2001): “ICT Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a Unique Case? A Comparative Study of Nine OECD Countries”, OECD STI Working Papers, 2001/7: 1-31.
• ÇELEBİOĞLU, F. (2005): Bilişim Teknolojilerinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkilerinin İncelenmesi: 1993-1999, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, (Basılmamış Doktora Tezi), Kütahya.
• DAĞDELEN, İ. (2002): Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri Ekonomisi: Önemi, Politikaları ve Büyüme Katkıları, Gazi Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, (Basılmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi), Ankara.
• DARRAT, A.F.: HSU, M.K. and ZHANG, M. (2002): “Human Capital and Endogenous Growth in Taiwan: Has Foreign Trade Contribution?”, Studies in Economics and Finance, 20(1): 85-94.
• DELONG, J.B. and SUMMERS, H.L. (1991): “Equipment Investment and Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108: 445-502.
• DEWAN, S. ans KRAEMER, K.L. (2000): “Information Technology and Productivity: Evidence from Country Level Data”, Management Science, 46(4): 548-562.
• DIRVEN M. (2008): “Measurement of Impact ICT in Latin America and the Caribbean” 2008 Global Event on Measuring the Information Society, http://www.CEPAL.org/SocInfo (27.05.2009).
• EATON, J. and KORTUM, S. (1994): “International Patenting and Technology Diffusion”, NBER Working Paper Series, No: 4931: 1-42.
• ENGLE, R.F. and GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987): “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55: 251- 276.
• EVANS, D.; GREEN, C. and MURINDE, V. (2000): “The Importance of Human Capital and Financial Development in Economic Growth: New Evidence Using the Translog Production Function”, Finance and Development Research Programme Working Paper Series, Paper No 22: 1-31.
• EVENSON, R.E. and SING, L. (1997): “Economic Growth, International Technological Spillovers and Public Policy: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Asia”, Economic Growth Center, Yale University, Discussion Paper, Number 777:.1-12.
• FEDDERKE, J. (2002): “Technology, Human Capital and Growth: Evidence from a Middle Income Country Case Study Applying Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Analysis”, Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS) Annual Forum, University of the Witwatersrand, September 10-12: 1-36.
• GREINER, A. and SEMLER, W. (2005): “Externalities of Investment and Endogenous Growth: Theory and Time Series Evidence”, Center for Empirical Macroeconomics, Working Paper, No. 9: 1-22.
• GUELLEC, D. and De La POTTERIE, B.P. (2001): “R&D and Productivity Growth: Panel Data Analysis of 16 OECD Countries”, OECD STI Working Papers, 2001/3,: 1-25.
• GUJARATI, D.N. (1999): Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill Inc., Singapore, (Çev. Ü. Şenesen ve G.G. Şenesen).
• GUNDLACH, E. (1999): “The Impact of Human Capital on Economic Development: Problems and Perspectives”, Tan, J.L.H. (eds.) Human Capital Formation as An Engine of Growth: The East Asian Experience, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies: 383-402.
• GÜLMEZ, A. ve AK, M.Z. (2006): “Türkiye’de AR-GE ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Eşbütünleşme Testi”, 5. Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, Kartepe-Kocaeli: 302-310.
• HESHMATI, A. and YANG, W. (2006): “Contribution of ICT to the Chinese Economic Growth”, The Ratio Institute Working Papers, No:.91: 1-28.
• ITO, T.M.Y. and HARADA, N. (2002): “Does the IT Revolution Contribute to Japanese Economic Growth?”, JCER Discussion Paper No. 75, Japan Center for Economic Research, Tokyo: 1-23.
• JALAVA, J. and POHJOLA, M. (2005): “ICT as a Source of Output and Productivity Growth in Finland”, Helsinki Center of Economic Research, Discussion Paper No. 52: 1-11.
• JOHANSEN, S. and JUSELIUS, K. (1990): “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration–with Application to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52,: 169-210.
• JORGENSON, D.W. and MOTOHASHI, K. (2005): “Information Technology and the Japanese Economy”, NBER Working Paper, No:.W11801: 1-33.
• JORGENSON, D.W. and STIROH, K.J. (2000): “Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 1: 125-235.
• KANAMORI, T. and MOTOHASHI, K. (2007): “Information Technology and Economic Growth: Comparison between Japan and Korea”, The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) Discussion Paper Series, 07- E-009,: 1-26.
• KARAGIANNIS, S. (2007): “The Knowledge-Based Economy, Convergence and Economic Growth: Evidence from the European Union”, Centre of Planning and Economic Research Discussion Papers, No. 91: 1-40.
• KARAGÖL, E. ve KIRANKABEŞ, M.C. (2006): “AR-GE Yoğunluğu ile Yıllık Reel GSYİH Büyüme Oranı Arasındaki İlişki”, 5. Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, Kartepe-Kocaeli: 260-270.
• LIN, T.C. (2003): “Education, Technical Progress and Economic Growth: The Case of Taiwan”, Economics of Education Review, 22(2): 213-220.
• LOMBARDINI, S. (1996): Growth and Economic Development, Edward Elgar Publising Limited, Great Britian Cheltenham, UK.
• LUINTEL, K.B. and KHAN, M. (2005): “An Empirical Contribution to Knowledge Production and Economic Growth”, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, 2005/10: 1-28.
• MARTINEZ, D.; RODRIQUEZ, J. and TORRES, J.L. (2008): “The Productivity Paradox and The New Economy: The Spanish Case”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 30(4): 1569-1586.
• MAS, M. and QUESADA, J. (2004): “ICT and Economic Growth in Spain: 1985- 2002”, UEKLEMS Project, Issues for Discussion No. 262(1): 1-39.
• NADIRI, M.I. and KIM, S. (1996): “International R&D Spillovers, Trade and Productivity in Major OECD Countries”, NBER Working Paper Series, No. 5801: pp. 1-36.
• O’MAHONY, M. and VECCHI, M. (2003): “Is There an ICT Impact on TFP? A Heterogeneous http://www.niesr.ac.uk/pubs/dps/dp219.pdf, (06.03.2009). Panel Approach”, Mannheim NIESR,
• OECD (1996): The Knowledge Based Economy, Paris, France.
• OGAWA, N.; JONES, W.J. and WILLIAMSON, J.G. (19939: Human Resources in Development Along The Asia-Pasific Rim, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
• OKABE, M. (2002): “International R&D Spillovers and Trade Expansion Evidence from East Asian Economies”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 19(2): 141-154.
• OLINER, S.D. and SICHEL, D.E. (1994): “Computers and Output Growth Revisited: How Big Is the Puzzle?”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2: 273-334.
• OUTLON, N. (2001): “ICT and Productivity Growth in the United Kingdom”, Bank of England Working Paper, No. 140: 1-80.
• ÖZGÜLER, V.C. (2003): Yeni Ekonomi Anlayışı Kapsamında Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler: Türkiye Örneği, Anadolu Üniversitesi İİBF Yayınları No: 179, Eskişehir.
• PARK, W.G. (1995): “International R&D Spillovers and OECD Economic Growth”, Economic Inquiry, October, 33(4): 571-591.
• PAZARLIOĞLU, M.V. ve GÜRLER, Ö.K. (2007): “Telekomünikasyon Yatırımları ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı”, Finans, Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 44(508): 35-43.
• PIATKOWSKI, M. (2003): “The Contribution of ICT Investment to Economic Growth and Labor Productivity in Poland: 1995-2000”, TIGER Working Paper Series, No 43: 1-42.
• POHJOLA, M. (2000): “Information Technology and Economic Growth: A Cross- Country Analysis”, United Nations University/World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER) Working Papers, No. 173: 1-17.
• ______ (2002): “New Economy in Growth and Development”, World Institute for Development Economics Research, Discussion Paper No. 2002/67: 1-23.
• ROMER, P.M. (1986): “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”. Journal of Political Economy, 94(5): 1003-1037.
• ROLLER, L.H. and WAVERMAN, L. (2001): Telecommunication Infrastructure and Economic Development: A Simultaneous Approach, American Economic Review, 91(4): 9009-9023.
• SAYGILI, Ş. (2003): Bilgi Ekonomisine Geçiş Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisinin Dünyadaki Konumu, DPT Yayınları, No: 2675, Ankara.
• SCHULTZ, T.W. (1971): Investment in Human Capital The Role of Education and of Research, The Free Press, New York.
• TALLMAN, E.W. and WANG, P. (1994): “Human Capital and Endogenous Growth: Evidence From Taiwan, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34: 101-124.
• TEIXEIRA, A. and FORTUNA, N. (2003): “Human Capital, Innovation Capability and Economic Growth Portugal: 1960-2001”, FEB Working Paper, No:.131: 1-25.
• UĞUR, B. ve ŞAHİN, M. (2007): “Yeni Ekonominin Mikro ve Makro Ekonomi Üzerine Etkileri”, http://www.bilgiyonetimi.org, (24.11.2008).
• VOXI HEINRICH, A. (2007): “The Effects of Technology-as-Knowledge on The Economic Performance of Developing Countries: An Econometric Analysis Using Annual Publications Data for Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa, 1976- 2004”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) Paper, No. 3482: 1-36.
• WOONG, M.; KIM S.; PYO Y. and HONG D. (2005): “The Economic Importance of The Information Communications Technology Industry in Korea”, 1-17, http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/conf/51Yongkyu.pdf, (14.05.2008).
• YAMAK, R. ve KOÇAK, N.A. (2007): “Bilgi Teknolojisi Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: 1993-2005”, Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 2(1):1-10.
• YOON, C.H.; NA, K.Y. and JUNG, H.J. (2009): “The Role of ICT in Economic Growth of Korea: Productivity Changes across Industries since 1985”, 1-46, http://www.cerge.cuni.cz/pdf/events/papers/090206_t.pdf (25.05.2009).