Short Term Determinants of Minimum Wage in Turkey: Causality Analysis

Öz

There is a vast literature about minimum wage since minimum wage can affect the whole economy not only socially but also politically. This study performs a short-term Engle-Granger causality analysis for minimum wage for Turkey over the period1988-2016. According to Engle-Granger causality test results, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, trade volume and unemployment ratio are effective in determining the minimum wage. The highlighting result is that changes in the minimum wage do not influence the aggregate demand. So, there is no significant change in price level. This shows how the workers struggle to earn a living with minimum wage and force to borrow. In addition, changes in the minimum wage also affect the competition power of Turkey internationally by observing the effects in trade volume. Other debatable topic in the literature is the relation between labor market and the minimum wage. Our Engle-Granger test results indicate that there is a two-way causality between unemployment rate and minimum wage. In other words, the changes in minimum wage significantly affect unemployment rate and vice versa

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Minimum Wage, EngleGrangerCausality Analysis, Turkey

Türkiye’de Asgari Ücretin Kısa Dönem Belirleyicileri: Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Asgari ücrette yapılan değişikliklerin hem ekonomik hem sosyal hem de politik etkileri olması sebebiyle literatürde asgari ücretin ekonomiye etkileri üzerine çok sayıda çalışma yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmamızda 1988 ile 2016 yılları arasında Türkiye’de asgari ücretin kısa dönem nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Engle-Granger nedensellik analiz sonuçları Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH), enflasyon, ticaret hacmi ve işsizlik oranı, asgari ücretin belirlenmesinde etkili olduğunu göstermektedir. Dikkat çeken sonuç ise asgari ücretteki değişikliklerin talep artışına neden olmadığı, o yüzden enflasyonda istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir değişikliğe neden olmadığıdır. Ancakasgari ücretteki değişiklikler Türkiye’nin uluslararası rekabet gücünü etkilemektedir. Çalışmamızın sonuçları ayrıca asgari ücret ile işsizlik oranı arasında iki yönlü ilişki olduğuna ortaya koymaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle, asgari ücretteki değişiklikler işsizlik oranını etkilerken; işsizlik oranındaki değişiklikler de asgari ücretin belirlenmesinde etkili olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Asgari Ücret, Engle-Granger Nedensellik Analizi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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