Horizon Scanning as an Early Warning System in Health Technology Assessment: A Conceptual and Methodological Perspective

Abstract

The rapid development and diversification of health technologies necessitate more proactive and structured assessment mechanisms to guide their integration into health systems. In this context, Health Technology Assessment (HTA) emerges as an evidence-based decision support tool, analyzing the safety, effectiveness, cost, and ethical dimensions of new technologies. However, the need to evaluate innovations at earlier stages has led to the advancement of horizon scanning (HS) systems, which serve as early warning mechanisms. This article examines the conceptual foundations, methodological frameworks, and international implementations of horizon scanning in the healthcare context, and proposes a model that may guide national practices in Türkiye. The study explores the components of early warning systems, including identification, filtration, prioritization, and reporting, through a comprehensive review of current literature and country-specific practices. Findings reveal that horizon scanning plays a strategic role particularly in areas with high uncertainty, such as rare diseases and digital health technologies. It is recommended that Türkiye strengthens its current HTA infrastructure by establishing a stakeholder-driven horizon scanning unit, engaging in international collaborations, and adopting a structured national model. These recommendations aim to enhance the country’s capacity for proactive, evidence-informed health policy-making.

Keywords

• health techhnical assessment
• horizon scanning
• early warning

Sağlık Teknolojisi Değerlendirmesinde Erken Uyarı Sistemi Olarak Ufuk Tarama: Kavramsal ve Metodolojik Bir Bakış

Öz

Sağlık teknolojilerinin çeşitlenmesi ve hızla gelişmesi, bu teknolojilerin sağlık sistemlerine entegrasyon sürecinde daha öngörülü ve yapılandırılmış değerlendirme mekanizmalarını gerekli kılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, sağlık teknolojisi değerlendirmesi (STD), teknolojilerin güvenlik, etkililik, maliyet ve etik boyutlarını analiz eden kanıta dayalı bir karar destek aracı olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Ancak, teknolojilerin daha erken aşamalarda değerlendirilmesi gereksinimi, “ufuk tarama” (horizon scanning) olarak adlandırılan bir erken uyarı sisteminin gelişimini gündeme getirmiştir. Bu makalede, sağlık alanında ufuk taramanın kavramsal temelleri, metodolojik yaklaşımları ve uluslararası uygulamaları ele alınmakta; ayrıca Türkiye için örnek teşkil edebilecek bir model önerisi sunulmaktadır. Çalışmada, erken uyarı sistemlerinin tanımlama, filtreleme, önceliklendirme ve raporlama gibi bileşenleri üzerinden kapsamlı bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır. Literatürden ve çeşitli ülke uygulamalarından elde edilen bulgular ışığında, özellikle nadir hastalıklar ve dijital sağlık uygulamaları gibi yüksek belirsizlik içeren alanlarda ufuk taramanın stratejik bir rol üstlendiği ortaya konmuştur. Türkiye'de mevcut STD yapısının güçlendirilmesi, uluslararası işbirliklerinin artırılması ve paydaş temelli bir ufuk tarama biriminin kurulması önerilmektedir. Bu öneriler, sağlık sisteminde proaktif ve kanıta dayalı karar alma kapasitesini artırmayı hedeflemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sağlık Teknolojisi Değerlendirme
• ufuk tarama
• erken uyarı

Kaynakça

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