While Covid-19 Outbreak Affects Economies and Societies; Exploring The Energy Demand in Turkey

Abstract

The fear and panic environment created by the Coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19), which affects the whole world, deeply affects the market mechanisms and causes energy supply and demand shocks. The common point of the predictions is that 2021 will pass with negative growth and increasing unemployment problem all over the world, with the economic reflections of the epidemic being felt seriously. In this study, Turkey in particular; a neural network and comparative regression model has been developed to analyze the effects on electricity and oil demand as part of COVID-19 economic measures. The purpose of this article is to contribute to the determination of Turkey's demand for electricity and oil during the epidemic and future by collecting information about direct and indirect factors, the events in the internal and external environments and their relationships of the pandemic. As a consequence, the elasticity of electricity and petroleum demand toward the population of the infected people is −0.323% and −0.397% respectively. The impact of COVID-19 on energy demand will be many times greater than the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on global energy demand. The mentioned findings show that the crisis deeply affected not only human health but also the global economy, clearly showed how the energy sector interacts with other factors of the economic structure.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• ANN
• regression
• energy demand
• ARDL model

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