Finansal ve Ekonomik Kararlılık Sağlayabilmek İçin Rekabetçi Piyasalarda Banka Faiz Oranının Rolü

Öz

Finansal ve ekonomik istikrar, ülkelerin iki ana önemli kavramıdır. Bu hedefe ulaşmak için hükümetler tarafından birçok farklı eylemde bulunulmuştur. Bu süreçte, faiz oranı kilit bir rol oynamaktadır, çünkü esas olarak yatırımların maliyetini ve tarafların tüketim kararlarını etkilemektedir. Dolayısıyla, faiz oranının belirleyicileri daha etkin bir finansal piyasaya sahip olmak için tanımlanmalıdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki banka faiz oranını etkileyen faktörleri belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çerçevede, literatür taramasına dayanarak yedi farklı bağımsız değişken seçilmiştir. Ayrıca, 2001:01 ve 2018:02 dönem aralığı için bu değişkenlerin üç aylık verileri dikkate alınmıştır. Ayrıca, analizde çok değişkenli uyarlanmış regresyon uzanımları (MARS) modeli kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, enflasyonun, dış borcun, bütçe açığının, cari açığın ve yüksek petrol fiyatlarının Türkiye'deki yüksek faiz oranının belirleyicisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, Türk hükümetinin bu makroekonomik sorunları en aza indirmek için bazı adımlar atması gerektiği açıktır. Bu bağlamda, enflasyon hedefleme planı hükümet ve merkez bankasının koordinasyonunda daha etkin bir şekilde uygulanmalıdır. Ek olarak, bütçe açığını önlemek için bütçe disiplini sürdürülmelidir. Ayrıca, cari işlemler açığının azaltılması gerektiğinden hükümetin ithal mallara olan talebi azaltabilmesi için bazı önlemler alması gerekmektedir. Bu eylemler sayesinde, Türkiye'deki faiz oranını düşürmek daha mümkün olabilecektir. Düşük faiz oranı, sürdürülebilir finansal ve ekonomik büyümeye katkıda bulunan yatırımlar üzerinde artan bir etkiye sahiptir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• MARS,Faiz Oranı,Türkiye,Finansal Gelişme,Sürdürülebilir Ekonomik Büyüme

The Role Of Bank Interest Rate In The Competıtıve Emergıng Markets To Provıde Fınancıal and Economıc Stabılıty

Abstract

Financial and economic stability are two main significant concepts of the countries. Many different actions are taken in order to reach this objective. In this process, interest rate plays a key role because it mainly affects the cost of investments and consumption decisions of the parties. Therefore, the determinants of interest rate should be identified to have more effective financial market. This study aims to determine the influencing factors of bank interest rate in Turkey. Within this framework, seven different independent variables are selected based on literature review. Moreover, quarterly data of these variables for the periods between 2001:01 and 2018:02 is taken into the consideration. Furthermore, multivariate adoptive regression splines (MARS) model is used in the analysis process. The findings show that inflation, foreign debt, budget deficit, current account deficit and high oil price are the main determinants of high interest rate in Turkey. Therefore, it is obvious that Turkish government should take some actions to minimize these macroeconomic problems. In this context, inflation targeting plan should be implemented more effectively with the coordination of the government and central bank. Additionally, budget discipline should be maintained in order to prevent budget deficit. Furthermore, the government should take some measures to reduce the demand for imported goods, so current account deficit can be decreased. With the help of these actions, it can be more possible to decrease interest rate in Turkey. Lower interest rate has an increasing effect on the investment which contributes sustainable financial and economic growth.

Keywords

• MARS,Interest Rate,Turkey,Financial Development,Sustainable Economic Growth

Kaynakça

1. Akgay, O. C., Alper, C. E., & Ozmucur, S. (2018). Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey, 1970-2000. In Inflation and Disinflation in Turkey (pp. 83-102). Routledge.
2. Akıncı, M. & Yılmaz, Ö. (2016). The Trade-Off between Inflation and Interest Rate: A Dynamic Least Squares Method for Turkish Economy in the Context of Fisher Hypothesis. Sosyoeconomy, 24(27), 33-56.
3. Angeloni, I., & Prati, A. (1993). Liquidity Effects and the Determinants of Short-term Interest Rates in Italy (1991-92) (No. 788). CEPR Discussion Papers.
4. Arora, V., & Tanner, M. (2013). Do Oil Prices Respond to Real İnterest Rates?. Energy Economics, 36, 546-555.
5. Atgür, M., & Altay, N. O. (2015). Relationship Between The Inflation and Nominal Interest Rate: The Case of Turkey (2004-2013). Journal of Management & Economics, 22(2), 521-533.
6. Aytaç, D., & Sağlam, M. (2014). Relationship Among Public Deficits Domestic Debt and Interest Rate: Turkey Case. Eskişehir Osmangazi University Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal, 9(1), 131-148.
7. Benjamin, D.K., & Kochin, L.A. (1984). War, Prices, and Interest Rates: A Martial Solution To Gibson's Paradox. In A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931 (pp. 587-612). University of Chicago Press.
8. Berument, H. (1999). The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates in the UK. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 46(2), 207-218.

9. Berument, H., & Malatyalı, K. (2001). Determinants of Interest Rates in Turkey. Russian & East European Finance and Trade, 37(1), 5-16.
10. Cebula, R. J. (1988). Federal Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis for the United States, 1955-1984. Public Finance, 43(3), 337-48.
11. Demir, M., & Sever, E. (2008). The Effects of Public Domestic Debt on the Rate of Growth, Interest and Inflation. Electronic Journal of Social Sciences, 25(25), 170-196.
12. Doğan, B., Eroğlu, Ö., & Değer, O. (2015). The Causal Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rates: The Case of Turkey. Çankırı Karatekin University Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 6, 1-21.
13. Doğrul, H. G. & Soytaş, U. (2010). Relationship between Oil Prices, Interest Rate and Unemployment: Evidence From An Emerging Market. Energy Economics, 32(2010), 1523-1528.
14. Durgut, D. (2010). Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Interest Rate: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey. Zonguldak Karaelmas University, Master Thesis.
15. Ekinci, E. B. M., Alhan, A., & Ergör, Z. B. (2016). Nonparametric Regression Analysis: Examining the Relationship between Interest Rate, Inflation and Exchange Rate. Banking and Insurance Research Journal, 2(9), 28-37.
16. Entrop, O., von la Hausse, L., & Wilkens, M. (2017). Looking beyond banks’ average interest rate risk: Determinants of high exposures. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 63, 204-218.
17. Ersin, İ., & Ergeç, E. H. (2018). Harcama Bileşenleri Ve Sektörel İstihdam Arasindaki Nedensellik İlişkisi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 16(Özel Sayı 1), 161-180.
18. Ersin, İ. (2018). İhracata Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Test Edilmesi: MINT Ülkeleri Örneği. Ekonomi, İşletme ve Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 26-38.
19. Ersoy, İ. (2011). The impact of financial openness on financial development, growth and volatility in Turkey: evidence from the ARDL bounds tests. Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 24(3), 33-44.
20. Friedman, J. H. (1991). Multivariate adaptive regression splines. The annals of statistics, 1-67.
21. Gupta, P. & Goyal, A. (2015). Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Indian Economy. OPEC Energy Review, 141-162.
22. Gül, E., Ekinci, A., & Özer, M. (2007). The Causal Relationship between Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in Turkey: 1984-2006. Journal of Economic, Management and Finance, 22(251), 21-31.
23. Günay, A. (2001). Exchange Rate Risk and Interest Rate: A Case Study for Turkey. Bilkent University, Master Thesis.
24. Güneş, M., & Tulçal, R. (2002). A Study on Determining of the Major Factors Affecting Interest Rates By Regression Analysis. Trakya University Journal of Scientific Research, Series C Social Sciences, 49-56.
25. Hol, S. (2006). Determinants of Long-term Interest Rates in the Scandinavian Countries. Discussion Papers No. 469, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
26. Holston, K., Laubach, T., & Williams, J. C. (2017). Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants. Journal of International Economics, 108, S59-S75.
27. Jammazi, R., Ferrer, R., Jareño, F., & Hammoudeh, S. M. (2017). Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality. International Review of Financial Analysis, 52, 260-280.
28. Karaca, O. (2005). Relationship between Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Currency in Turkey: Does Decreasing Interest Rate Increase Foreign Currencies?, Discussion Paper, Turkish Economic Association 2005/14.
29. Kartal, M. T., Depren, S. K., & Depren, Ö. (2018). Türkiye’de Döviz Kurlarını Etkileyen Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Belirlenmesi: MARS Yöntemi İle Bir İnceleme. Kırgızistan-Türkiye Manas Üniversitesi, 209.
30. Masatçı, K., & Darıcı, B. (2006). The Role of Internal and External Factors in Determining the Interest Rates in Turkey. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 4(6), 18-31.
31. Mercan, M. (2013). Testing the Long-term Relationship between Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates under Fisher Hypothesis: The Case of Turkey. Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 27(4), 368-384.
32. Mitchell, K., & Pearce, D. K. (2017). Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters. Southern Economic Journal, 84(2), 637-653. Moschitz, J. (2004). The Determinants of the Overnight Interest Rate in the Euro Area. ECB Working Paper Series, No. 393.
33. Mucuk, M., Gerçeker, M., & Edirneligil, A. (2016). Relationship between World’s Oil Prices and Interest Rates: Turkey Example. Politic, Economic and Management Research Journal, 4(4), 95-109.
34. Muinhos, M.K., & Nakane, M. (2006). Comparing Equilibrium Real Interest Rates: Different Approaches to Measure Brazilian Rates. Banco Central do Brasil, Discussion paper, 101.
35. Mukhtar, T., & Zakaria, M. (2008). Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: An Empirical Analysis for Pakistan. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 29(2), 1-14.
36. Obeng, S. K., & Sakyi, D. (2017). Macroeconomic determinants of interest rate spreads in Ghana. African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, 8(1), 76-88.
37. Onanuga, A. T., & Shittu, A. M. (2010). Determinants of Interest Rates in Nigeria: An Error Correction Model. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 2(11), 261-271.
38. Öztürk, N., & Durgut, D. (2011). Determinants of Interest Rate: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey. International Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business, 3(1), 117-144.
39. Poddar, T., Goswami, M., Sole, J., & Icaza, V. E. (2006). Interest Rate Determination in Lebanon (No. 6-94). International Monetary Fund Working Paper.
40. Ratti, R. & Vespignani, J.L. (2016). Oil Prices and Global Factor Macroeconomic Variables. Energy Economics, 1-40.
41. Sever, E. & Mizrak, Z. (2007). Relations between Foreign Currency, Inflation and Interest Rate: Turkey Practice. Selçuk University Social and Economic Research Journal, 1(13), 264-283.
42. Shapiro, A. F. (2018). Labor force participation, interest rate shocks, and unemployment dynamics in emerging economies. Journal of Development Economics.
43. Sotoudeh, M. A., & Worthington, A. C. (2015). Nonlinear Interest Rate Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: the Comparison of Net Oil-Consuming and Net Oil-Producing Countries. Applied Economics Letters, 22(9), 693-699.
44. Tanrıöver, B., & Yamak, N. (2015). Analysis of Nominal Interest Rate-General Price Level Relaitonship within the Framework of Gibson Paradox. Journal of Finance, 168, 186-200.
45. Taşbaşı, A.Ş. (2014). The Estimation of Exchange Rate-Interest Rate Volatility Trade off In Small Open Economies: Evidence from Hong Kong. Marmara University Economics and Administrative Sciences Journal, 36(1), 103-117.
46. Taylor, J. B., & Wieland, V. (2016). Finding the equilibrium real interest rate in a fog of policy deviations. Business Economics, 51(3), 147-154.
47. Torun, M., & Karanfil, M. (2016). Relationship between Inflation and Interest Rates in Turkey Economy for the Period 1980-2013. Journal of Administrative Sciences, 14(27), 473-490.
48. Tumwine, S., Sejjaaka, S., Bbaale, E., & Kamukama, N. (2018). Determinants of interest rate in emerging markets: A study of banking financial institutions in Uganda. World Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Sustainable Development.
49. Tunalı, H., & Erönal, Y. Y. (2016). Relation between Inflation and Interest Rates: Validity of Fisher Effect in Turkey. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 21(4), 1415-1431.
50. Zahid, K. H. (1988). Government Budget Deficits and Interest Rates: the Evidence since 1971, Using Alternative Deficit Measures. Southern Economic Journal, 725-731.
51. Zengin, S., Yüksel, S., & Kartal, M. T. (2018). Understanding the Factors that aFFect Foreign direct investment in Turkey by Using mars method. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 10(18), 1309-1123.