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An Assessment on The Reasons of Central Banks to Hold Reserves and The Determination of The Optimal Amount of Reserves

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 3, 244 - 269, 31.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.1169628

Öz

In the literature, it has been predicted that flexibility in exchange rate regimes causes a decrease in international reserves demand. However, the realization does not support this prediction, and it is seen that the demand for international reserves has been increasing in almost all economies. In this study, after the aforementioned determination is made, in order to understand the reason for this, international reserve demand theory, empirical studies and determination of optimal reserves level are examined respectively. For this purpose, theories discussing why central banks hold reserves are evaluated comparatively, and then, what empirical studies point to is analysed in detail. The main determinants of international reserve demand are considered in three groups: the probability of a country to experience a crisis, the damage to the economy in case of a foreign payment difficulties due to a crisis, and the opportunity cost of holding reserves. In this study, both the reserve demand and the interactions of these three elements are discussed in detail. It has been seen that a more flexible exchange rate regime does not enable central banks to demand less reserves but causes a significant increase in speed of reserve-money balance adjustment.

Kaynakça

  • Agenor, P.R. (2002). Comments. S.M. Collins, D. Rodrik içinde, Brookings Trade Forum 2001 (s. 48-58).
  • Aizenman, J., & Lee, J. (2007). International reserves: precautionary versus mercantilist views, theory and evidence. Open Economic Review, 18(2), s. 191-214.
  • Altman, O.L. (1961). Professor Triffin on international liquidity and the role of the fund. IMF Staff Papers, April 1961.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Demand of and supply of inter- national reserves: a simultaneous approach. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 7(4), Summer, s.493-503.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1987). Demand for international reserves: corrections for serial correlation and hetereoscedasticity. Applied Economics, s. 609-618.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1988a). Exchange rate flexibility and the speed of adjustment. Kyklos, 41, s. 35-49. Wiley Blackwell.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1988b). Oil price shocks and the stability of the demand for international reserves. Journal of Quantitative Macroeconomics, 10, s. 633-641.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Brown, F. (2002). Demand for international reserves: a review article. Applied Economics, 34, s. 1209-1226.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Malixi M. (1987). Effects of exchange rate flexibility on the demand for international reserves. Economic Letters, 23, s. 89-93.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Niroomand, F. (1988). On the exchange rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: some evidence from industrial countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 124, s. 161-168.
  • Baumol, W.J. (1952). The transaction demand for cash: an inventory theoretic approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 66, s. 545-556.
  • Ben-Bassat, A., & Gotlieb, D. (1992). On the effect of opportunity cost on international reserve holdings. Review of Economy and Statistics, 74, s. 329-332.
  • Calvo, G.A., Izquierdo, A., & Loo-Kung, R. (2013). Optimal holdings of international reserves: self-insurance against sudden stops. Monetaria, 1, s. 1-35.
  • Claassen, E.M. (1975). Demand for international reserves and the optimum mix and speed of adjustment policies. American Economic Review, 65, s. 446-453.
  • Clark, P.B. (1970). Optimum international reserves and the speed of adjustment. Journal of Political Economy, 78, s. 356-376.
  • Cohen, B.J. (1975). International reserves and liquidity. P.B. Kenen içinde, The International Trade and Finance: Frontiers for Research, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Cole, H.L., & Kehoe, T.J. (2000). Self-fulfilling debt crises. Review of Economic Studies, 67, s. 91-116.
  • Coppin, A. (1994). The determinants of international reserves in Barbados: a test of the monetarist approach. Social and Economic Studies, 43, s. 76-89.
  • Cooper, R. (1968). The relevance of international liquidity to developed countries. American Economic Review, 58, s. 586-595.
  • Courchene, T.J., & Youssef, G.M. (1967). The demand for international reserves. Journal of Political Economy, 75, s. 404-413.
  • Crockett, A. (1978). Control over international reserves, IMF Staff Papers.
  • Dooley, M.P., Folkerts-Landau, D., & Garber P. (2004). The revived Bretton Woods System: the effects of periphery intervention and reserve management on interest rates and exchange rates in centre countries. NBER Working Paper, No. 10332.
  • Edwards, S. (1983). The demand for international reserves and exchange rate adjustments: the case of LDCs, 1964-72. Economica, No: 50, s. 269-280.
  • Edwards, S. (1984). The demand for international reserves and monetary equilibrium: some evidence from developing countries, Review of Economics and Statistics, 66, s. 495-500.
  • Edwards, S. (1985). On the interest rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: some evidence from developing countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, s. 287-295.
  • Elbadawi, I.A. (1990). The Sudan demand for international reserves: a case of a labour exporting country,” Economica, 57, s. 73-89.
  • Flanders, M.J. (1971). The demand for international reserves, Princeton Studies in International Finance, No. 27, Princeton.
  • Frenkel, J.A. (1974). Openness and the demand for international reserves. R. Albier içinde, the National Monetary Policies and the International Financial System, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Frenkel, J.A. (1978). International reserves: pegged exchange rates and managed float. Brunner, K. and Meltzer, A.H. içinde, Public Policies in Open Economies (s. 111-140). Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company.
  • Frenkel, J. A. (1980). International reserves under pegged exchange rates and managed float: corrections and extensions. Journal of Monetary Economics, 6, s. 295-302.
  • Frenkel, J. (1983). International liquidity and monetary control. George M. von Furstenberg içinde, International Money and Credit: The Policy Roles (s. 65-109). Washington: International Monetary Fund.
  • Frenkel, J.A., & Jovanovic, B. (1981). Optimal international reserves: a stochastic framework. The Economic Journal, Vol. 91, No. 362, s. 507-514.
  • Garcia, P., & Soto, C. (2006). Large holdings of international reserves: are they worth it? Ricardo Caballero, César Calderón, & Luis Felipe Céspedes içinde, External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies. Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile.
  • Gonçalves, F. (2007). The optimal level of foreign reserves in financially dollarized economies: the case of Uruguay. IMF Working Paper, 07/265.
  • Greenspan, A. (1999). Currency reserves and debt. Remarks before the World Bank Conference on Recent Trends in Reserves Management, Washington, D.C.
  • Grimes, A. (1993). International reserves under floating exchange rates: two paradoxes explained. The Economic Record, 69, s. 411-415. Guidotti, P.E., Sturzenegger, F., & Villar, A. (2004). On the consequences of sudden stops. Economica, Vol.4, No. 2, s. 1-44.
  • Heller, H.R. (1966). Optimal international reserves. Economics Journal, No: 7, s. 296-311.
  • Heller, R. & Khan M. (1978). The demand for international reserves under fixed and floating exchange rates. IMF Staff Papers, 25, s. 623-649.
  • Huang, G. (1995). Modelling China’s demand for international reserves. Applied Financial Economics, 5, s. 357-366.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2021). 07,17,2021 tarihinde IMF:https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4&sId=1408206195757
  • Iyoha, M.A., (1976). Demand for international reserves in less developed countries: a disturbed lag specification. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.58, s. 351-355.
  • Jeanne, O. (2007). International reserves in emerging market countries: too much of a good thing? W.C. Brainard & G.L. Perry içinde, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (s. 1–55). Washington DC: Brookings Institution.
  • Jeanne, O., & Ranciere, R. (2006). The optimal level of international reserves for emerging countries: formulas and applications. IMF Working Paper, No. 06/229.
  • Jeanne, O., & Ranciere, R. (2011). The optimal level of international reserves for emerging countries: a new formula and some applications. The Economic Journal, No. 121, s. 905-930.
  • Johnson, H.G. (1965). International Trade and Economic Growth: Studies in Pure Theory, 2nd edn. Great Britain: Allen and Unwin.
  • Johnson, H.G. (1977). The monetary approach to balance of payments theory and policy: explanation and policy implications. Economica, Vol. 44, No. 175, s. 217-229.
  • Kelly, M.G. (1970). The demand for international reserves. American Economic Review, 60, s. 655-667.
  • Kenen, P.B., & Yudin, E.B. (1965). The demand for international reserve. Review of Economics and Statistics, 47, s. 242-250.
  • Kennedy, P. (1992). A Guide to Econometrics, Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Keynes, J.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. New York.
  • Landell-Mills, J.M. (1989). The demand for international reserves and their opportunity cost IMF Staff Papers, 36, s. 708-732.
  • Lee, J. (2004). Insurance value of international reserves: an option pricing approach. IMF Working Paper, 04/175.
  • Lizondo, J.S., & Mathieson, D.J. (1987). The stability of the demand for international reserves. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 6, No. 3, s. 251-282.
  • Machlup, F. (1966). The need for monetary reserves. içinde, the Reprints in International Finance, 5, Princeton University: International Finance Section.
  • Makin, J.H. (1974). Exchange rate flexibility and the demand for international reserves. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 110, s. 229-243.
  • Mendoza, E.G., & Terrones, M. (2008). An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data. International Finance Discussion papers, No. 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Miller, M.H. & Orr, D. (1966). A model of the demand for money by firms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, s. 413-435.
  • Mundell, R.A. (1971). Monetary Theory: Inflation, Interest and Growth in the World Economy, Goodyear, Pacific Palisades, 1971.
  • Ranciere, R., Tornell, A., & Westermann, F. (2008). Systemic crises and growth. Journal of Economics, 123(1), s. 359-406.
  • Rodrik, D. (2006). The social cost of foreign exchange reserves. NBER Working Paper No: 11952 Cambridge: Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Ruiz-Arranz, M. & Zavadjil, M. (2008). Are Emerging Asia’s reserves really too high? IMF Working Paper, 08/192.
  • Scitovsky, T. (1958). Economic Theory and Western European Integration, Great Britain: Allen and Unwin.
  • Thorn, R.S. (1967). The demand for international reserves: a note on behalf of the rejected hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 46, s. 623-627.
  • Tirole, J. (2005). The Theory of Corporate Finance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Triffin, P. (1947). National central banking and the international economy. Review of Economic Studies, 14(2), s. 53-75.
  • Triffin, P. (1961). Gold and the Dollar Crisis. New Heaven: Yale University Press.
  • Williamson, J.H. (1973). Surveys in applied economics: international liquidity,” The Economic Journal, s. 685-746.
  • Yudin, E.B. & Kenen, P.B. (1967). Demand for international reserves: a reply,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 46, s. 626-627.

Merkez Bankalarının Rezerv Tutma Sebepleri Ve Optimal Rezerv Miktarının Tespitine İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 3, 244 - 269, 31.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.1169628

Öz

Yazında, kur rejimlerinde esnekliğin uluslararası rezerv talebinde azalmaya neden olacağı öngörülmüştür. Ne var ki gerçekleşme bu öngörüyü desteklememekte, gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha hızlı olmakla birlikte neredeyse tüm ekonomilerde uluslararası rezerv talebinin arttığı gözlenmektedir. Bu çalışmada, bahsi geçen gözlem ortaya konulduktan sonra bunun sebebini anlamak üzere sırasıyla uluslararası rezerv talebi teorisi, ampirik çalışmalar ve optimal rezerv düzeyinin tespiti konuları incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla, merkez bankalarının neden rezerv tutmakta olduklarını tartışan teoriler karşılaştırmalı olarak değerlendirilmiş, sonrasında da ampirik çalışmaların neye işaret ettiği detaylı olarak incelenmiştir. Uluslararası rezerv talebi temel belirleyicileri 3 grupta ele alınmıştır: ülkenin kriz yaşama olasılığı, bir kriz durumunda dış ödeme zorluğuna girilecek olursa ekonominin alacağı hasar ve rezerv tutmanın fırsat maliyeti. Çalışmada söz konusu unsurlar hem rezerv talebi hem de birbirleriyle etkileşimleri açısından detaylı olarak ele alınmıştır. Görülmüştür ki, daha esnek kur rejimi merkez bankalarının daha az rezerv talep etmelerini sağlamamakta fakat rezerv para dengesi düzeltme hızlarında belirgin artışa neden olmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Agenor, P.R. (2002). Comments. S.M. Collins, D. Rodrik içinde, Brookings Trade Forum 2001 (s. 48-58).
  • Aizenman, J., & Lee, J. (2007). International reserves: precautionary versus mercantilist views, theory and evidence. Open Economic Review, 18(2), s. 191-214.
  • Altman, O.L. (1961). Professor Triffin on international liquidity and the role of the fund. IMF Staff Papers, April 1961.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Demand of and supply of inter- national reserves: a simultaneous approach. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 7(4), Summer, s.493-503.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1987). Demand for international reserves: corrections for serial correlation and hetereoscedasticity. Applied Economics, s. 609-618.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1988a). Exchange rate flexibility and the speed of adjustment. Kyklos, 41, s. 35-49. Wiley Blackwell.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1988b). Oil price shocks and the stability of the demand for international reserves. Journal of Quantitative Macroeconomics, 10, s. 633-641.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Brown, F. (2002). Demand for international reserves: a review article. Applied Economics, 34, s. 1209-1226.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Malixi M. (1987). Effects of exchange rate flexibility on the demand for international reserves. Economic Letters, 23, s. 89-93.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Niroomand, F. (1988). On the exchange rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: some evidence from industrial countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 124, s. 161-168.
  • Baumol, W.J. (1952). The transaction demand for cash: an inventory theoretic approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 66, s. 545-556.
  • Ben-Bassat, A., & Gotlieb, D. (1992). On the effect of opportunity cost on international reserve holdings. Review of Economy and Statistics, 74, s. 329-332.
  • Calvo, G.A., Izquierdo, A., & Loo-Kung, R. (2013). Optimal holdings of international reserves: self-insurance against sudden stops. Monetaria, 1, s. 1-35.
  • Claassen, E.M. (1975). Demand for international reserves and the optimum mix and speed of adjustment policies. American Economic Review, 65, s. 446-453.
  • Clark, P.B. (1970). Optimum international reserves and the speed of adjustment. Journal of Political Economy, 78, s. 356-376.
  • Cohen, B.J. (1975). International reserves and liquidity. P.B. Kenen içinde, The International Trade and Finance: Frontiers for Research, New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Cole, H.L., & Kehoe, T.J. (2000). Self-fulfilling debt crises. Review of Economic Studies, 67, s. 91-116.
  • Coppin, A. (1994). The determinants of international reserves in Barbados: a test of the monetarist approach. Social and Economic Studies, 43, s. 76-89.
  • Cooper, R. (1968). The relevance of international liquidity to developed countries. American Economic Review, 58, s. 586-595.
  • Courchene, T.J., & Youssef, G.M. (1967). The demand for international reserves. Journal of Political Economy, 75, s. 404-413.
  • Crockett, A. (1978). Control over international reserves, IMF Staff Papers.
  • Dooley, M.P., Folkerts-Landau, D., & Garber P. (2004). The revived Bretton Woods System: the effects of periphery intervention and reserve management on interest rates and exchange rates in centre countries. NBER Working Paper, No. 10332.
  • Edwards, S. (1983). The demand for international reserves and exchange rate adjustments: the case of LDCs, 1964-72. Economica, No: 50, s. 269-280.
  • Edwards, S. (1984). The demand for international reserves and monetary equilibrium: some evidence from developing countries, Review of Economics and Statistics, 66, s. 495-500.
  • Edwards, S. (1985). On the interest rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: some evidence from developing countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, s. 287-295.
  • Elbadawi, I.A. (1990). The Sudan demand for international reserves: a case of a labour exporting country,” Economica, 57, s. 73-89.
  • Flanders, M.J. (1971). The demand for international reserves, Princeton Studies in International Finance, No. 27, Princeton.
  • Frenkel, J.A. (1974). Openness and the demand for international reserves. R. Albier içinde, the National Monetary Policies and the International Financial System, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • Frenkel, J.A. (1978). International reserves: pegged exchange rates and managed float. Brunner, K. and Meltzer, A.H. içinde, Public Policies in Open Economies (s. 111-140). Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company.
  • Frenkel, J. A. (1980). International reserves under pegged exchange rates and managed float: corrections and extensions. Journal of Monetary Economics, 6, s. 295-302.
  • Frenkel, J. (1983). International liquidity and monetary control. George M. von Furstenberg içinde, International Money and Credit: The Policy Roles (s. 65-109). Washington: International Monetary Fund.
  • Frenkel, J.A., & Jovanovic, B. (1981). Optimal international reserves: a stochastic framework. The Economic Journal, Vol. 91, No. 362, s. 507-514.
  • Garcia, P., & Soto, C. (2006). Large holdings of international reserves: are they worth it? Ricardo Caballero, César Calderón, & Luis Felipe Céspedes içinde, External Vulnerability and Preventive Policies. Santiago, Chile: Central Bank of Chile.
  • Gonçalves, F. (2007). The optimal level of foreign reserves in financially dollarized economies: the case of Uruguay. IMF Working Paper, 07/265.
  • Greenspan, A. (1999). Currency reserves and debt. Remarks before the World Bank Conference on Recent Trends in Reserves Management, Washington, D.C.
  • Grimes, A. (1993). International reserves under floating exchange rates: two paradoxes explained. The Economic Record, 69, s. 411-415. Guidotti, P.E., Sturzenegger, F., & Villar, A. (2004). On the consequences of sudden stops. Economica, Vol.4, No. 2, s. 1-44.
  • Heller, H.R. (1966). Optimal international reserves. Economics Journal, No: 7, s. 296-311.
  • Heller, R. & Khan M. (1978). The demand for international reserves under fixed and floating exchange rates. IMF Staff Papers, 25, s. 623-649.
  • Huang, G. (1995). Modelling China’s demand for international reserves. Applied Financial Economics, 5, s. 357-366.
  • International Monetary Fund. (2021). 07,17,2021 tarihinde IMF:https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4&sId=1408206195757
  • Iyoha, M.A., (1976). Demand for international reserves in less developed countries: a disturbed lag specification. The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol.58, s. 351-355.
  • Jeanne, O. (2007). International reserves in emerging market countries: too much of a good thing? W.C. Brainard & G.L. Perry içinde, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (s. 1–55). Washington DC: Brookings Institution.
  • Jeanne, O., & Ranciere, R. (2006). The optimal level of international reserves for emerging countries: formulas and applications. IMF Working Paper, No. 06/229.
  • Jeanne, O., & Ranciere, R. (2011). The optimal level of international reserves for emerging countries: a new formula and some applications. The Economic Journal, No. 121, s. 905-930.
  • Johnson, H.G. (1965). International Trade and Economic Growth: Studies in Pure Theory, 2nd edn. Great Britain: Allen and Unwin.
  • Johnson, H.G. (1977). The monetary approach to balance of payments theory and policy: explanation and policy implications. Economica, Vol. 44, No. 175, s. 217-229.
  • Kelly, M.G. (1970). The demand for international reserves. American Economic Review, 60, s. 655-667.
  • Kenen, P.B., & Yudin, E.B. (1965). The demand for international reserve. Review of Economics and Statistics, 47, s. 242-250.
  • Kennedy, P. (1992). A Guide to Econometrics, Cambridge: MIT Press.
  • Keynes, J.M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. New York.
  • Landell-Mills, J.M. (1989). The demand for international reserves and their opportunity cost IMF Staff Papers, 36, s. 708-732.
  • Lee, J. (2004). Insurance value of international reserves: an option pricing approach. IMF Working Paper, 04/175.
  • Lizondo, J.S., & Mathieson, D.J. (1987). The stability of the demand for international reserves. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 6, No. 3, s. 251-282.
  • Machlup, F. (1966). The need for monetary reserves. içinde, the Reprints in International Finance, 5, Princeton University: International Finance Section.
  • Makin, J.H. (1974). Exchange rate flexibility and the demand for international reserves. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 110, s. 229-243.
  • Mendoza, E.G., & Terrones, M. (2008). An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data. International Finance Discussion papers, No. 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
  • Miller, M.H. & Orr, D. (1966). A model of the demand for money by firms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, s. 413-435.
  • Mundell, R.A. (1971). Monetary Theory: Inflation, Interest and Growth in the World Economy, Goodyear, Pacific Palisades, 1971.
  • Ranciere, R., Tornell, A., & Westermann, F. (2008). Systemic crises and growth. Journal of Economics, 123(1), s. 359-406.
  • Rodrik, D. (2006). The social cost of foreign exchange reserves. NBER Working Paper No: 11952 Cambridge: Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Ruiz-Arranz, M. & Zavadjil, M. (2008). Are Emerging Asia’s reserves really too high? IMF Working Paper, 08/192.
  • Scitovsky, T. (1958). Economic Theory and Western European Integration, Great Britain: Allen and Unwin.
  • Thorn, R.S. (1967). The demand for international reserves: a note on behalf of the rejected hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 46, s. 623-627.
  • Tirole, J. (2005). The Theory of Corporate Finance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • Triffin, P. (1947). National central banking and the international economy. Review of Economic Studies, 14(2), s. 53-75.
  • Triffin, P. (1961). Gold and the Dollar Crisis. New Heaven: Yale University Press.
  • Williamson, J.H. (1973). Surveys in applied economics: international liquidity,” The Economic Journal, s. 685-746.
  • Yudin, E.B. & Kenen, P.B. (1967). Demand for international reserves: a reply,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 46, s. 626-627.
Toplam 68 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Suat Aydın 0000-0002-3408-1537

Nildağ Başak Ceylan 0000-0003-3128-8863

Ayhan Kapusuzoğlu 0000-0002-4280-3827

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 1 Eylül 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Aydın, S., Ceylan, N. B., & Kapusuzoğlu, A. (2022). Merkez Bankalarının Rezerv Tutma Sebepleri Ve Optimal Rezerv Miktarının Tespitine İlişkin Bir Değerlendirme. Ekonomi İşletme Ve Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 4(3), 244-269. https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.1169628