Kara Para Aklamaya Dair Bir Olay Çalışması: Deutsche Bank Örneği

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 191 - 207, 31.08.2024

İsmail Canöz

https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.1471760

Öz

Bu makale, kara para aklama ile ilgili işletme skandallarını Deutsche Bank örneği üzerinden incelemeyi ve bu suçların duyurulmasının ilgili bankanın hisse senedi performansı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. 31 Ocak 2017 ile 25 Eylül 2023 tarihleri arasında bankanın dahil olduğu altı kara para aklama vakası tespit edilmiştir. Bu olaylardan üçü bankaya uygulanan para cezalarını, ikisi bankanın ödemeyi kabul ettiği cezaları ve biri de bankanın genel merkezine yapılan baskını içermektedir. Bu haberlerin ilanının ve bunlara uygulanan cezaların bankanın hisse senedi fiyatlarını olumsuz etkileyip etkilemediği, anormal getiriler hesaplanarak araştırılmıştır. Anormal getirilerin hesaplanmasında düzeltilmiş getiri modeli kullanılmıştır. Olay tarihinden önceki ve sonraki 1, 3, 5, 10 ve 15 günlük olay pencereleri belirlenmiş ve bu olay pencereleri için kümülatif anormal getiriler hesaplanmıştır. Kümülatif anormal getirilerin istatistiksel anlamlılığını değerlendirmek için standart bir t-testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışma bulguları, bankanın merkez binasına yapılan baskın ile ilgili olayın diğerlerinden açıkça farklı olduğunu ve hemen hemen her olay penceresinde bu olayın duyurulması ile negatif ve anlamlı kümülatif anormal getirilerin ortaya çıktığını göstermiştir. Ancak her kara para aklama duyurusunu takip eden günlerde olumsuz bir fiyat tepkisi olduğuna dair kanıt elde edilememiştir. Bu bulgular, hisse senedinin dolaşımda olduğu piyasanın etkinliğinin dönemsel olarak değiştiğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmanın bulguları, bu tür skandalların borsa üzerindeki etkisine ışık tutması açısından önemlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kara para aklama, işletme skandalları, olay çalışması, anormal getiri

An Event Study on Money Laundering: The Case of Deutsche Bank

Öz

This article aims to examine the business scandals related to money laundering through the case of Deutsche Bank and investigate the effect of the announcement of these crimes on the stock performance of the relevant bank. Six money laundering cases involving the bank were detected between January 31, 2017, and September 25, 2023. Three of these incidents involved fines imposed on the bank, two that the bank agreed to pay, and one that involved a raid on the bank’s headquarters. Whether the announcement of these disclosures and the penalties imposed on them negatively affected the bank’s stock prices was investigated by calculating abnormal returns. The adjusted return model was used to calculate abnormal returns. Event windows of 1, 3, 5, 10, and 15 days were determined before and after the event date, and cumulative abnormal returns were calculated for these event windows. A standard t-test was applied to evaluate the statistical significance of cumulative abnormal returns. The study findings showed that the event related to the bank’s headquarters raid was clearly different from the others, and negative and significant cumulative abnormal returns emerged with the announcement of this event in almost every event window. However, evidence of an adverse price reaction in the days following each money laundering announcement has yet to be demonstrated. These findings indicate that the efficiency of the market in which the stock is in circulation changes periodically. The findings of this study are significant as they shed light on the impact of such scandals on the stock market.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Money laundering, business scandals, event study, abnormal returns

Kaynakça

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