Göçün Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Büyüme ve İstihdam Piyasası Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Panel ARDL Analizi

Yıl 2021, , 181 - 203, 31.12.2021

İsmail Hakkı İşcan , Tuğba Demirel

https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2021.35.1014765

Öz

Göçe neden olan faktörler arasında ekonomik ve güvenlik başta gelen unsurlardır. Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) verilerine göre 2020 yılında uluslararası göçe konu olan kişi sayısı 280 milyondan fazladır. Bu veriler bize aynı zamanda, 2020 yılında göç edenlerin yarısından fazlasının (%52) hedef coğrafyasının gelişmiş ülkeler olduğunu bildirmektedir. Bu durum bu ülkelerde göçün ne gibi ekonomik sonuçlar meydana getirdiğini önemli kılmaktadır. Buna göre bu çalışmanın amacıOECD ülkelerinde 2000-2019 dönemi için göçün ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik üzerine etkilerini ampirik olarak analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla Panel ARDL analizine başvurulmuştur. Ayrıca tespit edilen ilişkilerin yönünü belirlemek için Panel VECM Nedensellik analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre göç ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı bir ilişki söz konusudur. Buna göre göç düzeyinde gerçekleşen %1’lik bir artış, GSYİH’da %0.43 oranında artış sağlamaktadır. Ayrıca göç ile işsizlik arasında uzun dönemli ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı bir ilişkinin varlığı da yine bu çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar arasındadır. Buna göre göç düzeyinde gerçekleşen %1’lik bir artış işsizliği %0.53 oranında azaltmaktadır. Panel VECM nedensellik analizi sonucuna göre ise göçten GSYİH’ya ve göçten işsizliğe doğru tek yönlü ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar OECD ülkelerinde 2000-2019 dönemindeki göçü oluşturan bireylerin nitelikli insan gücü olması ve ayrıca hedef ülkelere yatırımların gerçekleştirilmesi nedeniyle ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağladığı ve böylelikle istihdam olanakları yaratarak işsizliği azalttığı şeklinde yorumlanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Göç, İstihdam piyasası, Ekonomik büyüme, OECD

The Effects of Migration on Growth and Unemployment in Developed Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis

Öz

Economic and security concerns are among the leading factorsthat causemigration. According to theUnitedNations(UN), more than 280 million people engaged in international migration in 2020. UN data indicate that more than half (52%) of those who migrated in 2020 targeted developed countries. This circumstance highlights the urgency of considering the economic consequences of migration in these countries. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of migration on economic growth (measured by means of gross domestic product or GDP) and unemployment in OECD countriesforthe period 2000–2019. Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) causality analyses are applied to determine relationships and their directions. The resultsreveal a longterm and statistically significant relationship between migration and economic growth, wherein 1% increase in migration level is associated with a 0.43% increase in GDP. A long-term and statistically significant relationship between migration and unemployment is also established wherein 1% increase in migration level appears to decrease unemployment by 0.53%. Panel VECM causality analyses confirm one-way relationships from migration to GDP and from migration to unemployment. These results demonstrate that migration in OECD countries in the period 2000–2019 contributed to economic growth due to migrants’ investments in target countries and reducing unemployment by establishing employment opportunities. Accordingly, considering that migration provides economic growth and reduces unemployment, it is essential for future studies to examine the nature of the individuals migrating at an empirical level to determine appropriate policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Migration, Employment Market, Economic Growth, OECD countries

Kaynakça

• Bai, J. and Serena N. G. (2004). “A Panic Attack On Unit Roots And Cointegration”, Econometrica, 72(4), July, pp. 1127-1177.
• Bali, S. (2008). “Population Movements”, Security Studies as an Introduction (Edited by Paul D. Williams), Routledge, pp. 460-480.
• Boubtane, E., Dramane C. and Cristophe R. (2013). “Immigration, Growth, and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries”, Review of Labour Economics and Industrial Relations, 27(4), December, pp. 399-420. Immigration, Growth, and Unemployment: Panel VAR Evidence from OECD Countries (wiley.com) (Er. Tar: 02.10.2020).
• Bashier A. and Siam A. J. (2014). “Immigration and Economic Growth in Jordan: FMOLS Approach”. International Journal of Humanities Social Sciences and Education (IJHSSE), 1(9), pp. 85-92.
• Benedikt, H. and Mario L. (2012). “Migration, Trade and Unemployment. Economics: The Open-Access”, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 6(4), pp. 1-40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2012-4. (Er. Tar: 02.09.2020).
• Breush, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), pp. 239 - 253.
• Borjas, G. J. (2001). “Does Immigration Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market?”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 69-133. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2001/01/2001a_bpea_borjas.pdf (Er. Tar: 10.02.2021).
• Card, D. (1990). “The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market”, Industrial and Labor Review, 43(2), pp. 245-257.
• Chletsos, M. and Roupakias, S. (2012). “Immigration, Unemployment and Growth: Empirical Evidence from Greece”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No.39927.
• Cohen-Goldner, S. and Paserman, D. M. (2004). “The Dynamic Impact of Immigration on Natives”, Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Israel”, IZA Discussion Papers, No.1315.
• Damette, O. and Fromentin, V. (2013). “Migration and Labour Markets in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach”, Applied Economics, 45, pp. 2295–2304.
• Esposito, P., Collignon, S., and Scicchitano, S. (2020). “The Effect of Immigration on Unemployment in Europe: Does the Core-periphery Dualism Matter?”, Economic Modelling, 84, pp. 249-258.
• Feridun, M. (2004). “Immigratıon, Income and Unemployment: An Applicatıon of the Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration”, Project MUSE Scholarly Journals Online, Lough borough University, U.K, The Journal of Developing Areas, 41(1), pp. 37-49.
• Friedberg, M. R. and Hunt, J. (1995). “The İmpact of Immigarants on Host Country Wages”, Employment and Growth, 9(2), pp. 23-44.
• Göv, A. ve Dürrü, Z. (2017). “Göç ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Seçilmiş OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Analiz”, Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3(4), ss. 491-502.
• Hadri, K. (2000). “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”, Econometrics Journal, 3, ss. 148-161.
• Hagen-Zanker, J., (2008). “Why do People Migrate? A Review of the Theoretical Literature”, MPRA Working Paper, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance, https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/28197/1/MPRA_paper_28197.pdf, (Er.Tar:10.03.2019).
• Hsiao, C. (2007). “Panel Data Analysis—Advantages and Challenges”, TEST, 16, pp. 1-22. Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (2003). “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115, pp. 53-74.
• Islam A. (2007). “Immigration and Unemployment Relationship: Evidence from Canada”, Australian Economic Papers, 46, pp. 52–66.
• IOM, (2017). “World Migration Report 2018”, International Organization for Migration, Switzerland.
• Jean, S., and Jimenez, M. (2007). “The Unemployment Impact of Immigration in OECD Countries”, OECD Economics Department Working Paper, No.563.
• Latif, E. (2015). “The Relationship Between Immigration and Unemployment: Panel Data Evidence From Canada, Economic Modelling”, Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 50, pp. 162- 167.
• Levin, A., Lin, C. and Chu, C. (2002). “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymtotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108, pp. 1-24.
• Massey, D. S., Joaquin A., Graeme H., Kouaouci A., Pellegrino A. and Taylor, J. E., (1993). “Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal”, Population and Development Review, 19(3), September, pp. 431-466.
• Moon, H. R. and Perron, B. (2004). “Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors”, Journal of Econometrics, 122(1), pp. 81-126.
• Morley, B. (2006). “Causality Between Economic Growthand Immigration An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”, Economic Letters, 90, pp. 72-76.
• Nurdoğan, A. K. ve Şahin, M. (2019). “Türkiye’ye Yönelen Uluslararası Göç İşsizliğin Bir Nedeni mi?”, Uluslararası Toplum ve Araştırma Dergisi, 9(11), ss. 2203-2221.
• Ortega F. and Giovanni P. (2009). “The Causes and Effects of International Migration: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005”, NBER Working Papers 14833. http://www.nber.org/papers/w14833
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, CESifo Working Paper, No. 1229). http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1229.pdf. (Er. Tar: 15.11.2020).
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), pp. 265 – 312.
• Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), pp. 105-127.
• Phillips, P. C. and Sul, D. (2003). “Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence”, The Econometrics Journal, 6(1), pp. 217-259.
• Romer, P. M. (1989). “Human Capital and Growth: Theory and Evidence”, NBER Working Paper No: 3173. Haktan S. ve Eroğlu, D. S. (2016). “Ekonomik Büyüme ve Göç İlişkisi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelere Dayalı Bir Analiz”, International Conference on Eurasian Economies Session 2C: Kalkınma II, August 29-31, Hungary.
• Shan J., Morris A. vand Sun F. (1999). “Immigration and Unemployment: New Evidence from Australia and New Zealand”, International Review of AppliedEconomics, 13(2), pp. 253-260.
• Škuflić, L. and Vučković, V. (2018). “The Effect of Emigration on Unemployment Rates: The case of EU Emigrant Countries”, Economic research-Ekonomska istraživanja, 31(1), pp. 1826-1836.
• UNDESA, (1998). “Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration”, Revision 1, United Nations Deparment of Economic and Social Affairs, Statics Division, New York, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/seriesm/seriesm_58rev1e.pdf, (Er.Tar.:03.03.2020).
• UNDESA, (2019). International Migration 2019 Report, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.
• UNDESA, (2020), International Migration 2020 Highlights, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York.
• UNDESA, (2021), International Migrant Stock 2020, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/content/international-migrant-stock, (Er. Tar.: 19.10).
• UNHCR, (2020). “Figures at a Glance, Statistical Yearbooks”, https://www.unhcr.org/figures-at-a-glance.html, (Er. Tar.: 19.12.2020).
• Venturuni, A. and Villosio, C. (2004). “Labour Market Effect of İmmigration into Italy: An Empricial Analysis”, International Labour Review, Volume:145 pp. 91-118.
• Walz, U., (1992). “On the Growth (rate) Effects of Migration”, Tübinge Diskussionsbeiträge, Working Paper No: 24, https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/104953/1/tdb024.pdf (Er. Tar: 02.01.2021).