Investigation of the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis with Fourier Unit Root Tests: The Case of Turkey

Yıl 2019, Sayı: 30, 35 - 48, 28.08.2019

Mücahit Aydın

Öz

Purchasing power parity is one of the most frequently discussed economic theories in the literature. Furthermore, the validity of purchasing power parity is important in terms of being a common exchange rate used in international comparison. In this study, the validity of purchasing power parity was examined using Fourier unit root tests for Turkey for the period 1992:01-2018:12. In order to make a comparison, two different recently developed unit root tests were used in the study. The results show that the purchasing power parity hypothesis is valid for Turkey. Accordingly, the real exchange rate is stationary and the shocks on the real exchange rate is temporary in this period. According to overall results, it is expected that PPP play an active role in monetary policy decisions. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Purchasing power parity, Nonlinearity, Fourier, Real exchange Rate, Unit root tests

Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi Hipotezi Geçerliliğinin Fourier Birim Kök Testleri ile İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Satın alma gücü paritesi, literatürde en sık tartışılan ekonomik teorilerden biridir. Diğer taraftan, satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliği, uluslararası karşılaştırmada kullanılan ortak bir döviz kuru olması açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye için satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerliliği 1992:01-2018:12 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak Fourier birim kök testleri yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Çalışmada karşılaştırma yapılabilmesi amacıyla literatüre son zamanlarda kazandırılan iki farklı birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları Türkiye için satın alma gücü paritesi hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre Türkiye’nin incelenen dönemde reel döviz kurları durağandır ve reel döviz kurlarına gelen şoklar geçicidir. Çalışmadan elde edilen genel sonuca göre Türkiye için SAGP’nin para politikası kararlarında etkin rol oynaması beklenmektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi, Doğrusal Olmama, Fourier, Reel Döviz Kuru, Birim Kök Testleri

Kaynakça

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