Göçün Gelişmiş Ülkelerde Büyüme ve İstihdam Piyasası Üzerine Etkileri: Bir Panel ARDL Analizi

Yıl 2021, Sayı: 35, 181 - 203, 31.12.2021

İsmail Hakkı İşcan Tuğba Demirel

https://doi.org/10.26650/ekoist.2021.35.1014765

Öz

Göçe neden olan faktörler arasında ekonomik ve güvenlik başta gelen unsurlardır. Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) verilerine göre 2020 yılında uluslararası göçe konu olan kişi sayısı 280 milyondan fazladır. Bu veriler bize aynı zamanda, 2020 yılında göç edenlerin yarısından fazlasının (%52) hedef coğrafyasının gelişmiş ülkeler olduğunu bildirmektedir. Bu durum bu ülkelerde göçün ne gibi ekonomik sonuçlar meydana getirdiğini önemli kılmaktadır. Buna göre bu çalışmanın amacıOECD ülkelerinde 2000-2019 dönemi için göçün ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik üzerine etkilerini ampirik olarak analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla Panel ARDL analizine başvurulmuştur. Ayrıca tespit edilen ilişkilerin yönünü belirlemek için Panel VECM Nedensellik analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre göç ile ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun dönemli ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı bir ilişki söz konusudur. Buna göre göç düzeyinde gerçekleşen %1’lik bir artış, GSYİH’da %0.43 oranında artış sağlamaktadır. Ayrıca göç ile işsizlik arasında uzun dönemli ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı bir ilişkinin varlığı da yine bu çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar arasındadır. Buna göre göç düzeyinde gerçekleşen %1’lik bir artış işsizliği %0.53 oranında azaltmaktadır. Panel VECM nedensellik analizi sonucuna göre ise göçten GSYİH’ya ve göçten işsizliğe doğru tek yönlü ilişkiler tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar OECD ülkelerinde 2000-2019 dönemindeki göçü oluşturan bireylerin nitelikli insan gücü olması ve ayrıca hedef ülkelere yatırımların gerçekleştirilmesi nedeniyle ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağladığı ve böylelikle istihdam olanakları yaratarak işsizliği azalttığı şeklinde yorumlanabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Göç, İstihdam piyasası, Ekonomik büyüme, OECD

The Effects of Migration on Growth and Unemployment in Developed Countries: A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis

Öz

Economic and security concerns are among the leading factorsthat causemigration. According to theUnitedNations(UN), more than 280 million people engaged in international migration in 2020. UN data indicate that more than half (52%) of those who migrated in 2020 targeted developed countries. This circumstance highlights the urgency of considering the economic consequences of migration in these countries. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to analyze the effects of migration on economic growth (measured by means of gross domestic product or GDP) and unemployment in OECD countriesforthe period 2000–2019. Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) causality analyses are applied to determine relationships and their directions. The resultsreveal a longterm and statistically significant relationship between migration and economic growth, wherein 1% increase in migration level is associated with a 0.43% increase in GDP. A long-term and statistically significant relationship between migration and unemployment is also established wherein 1% increase in migration level appears to decrease unemployment by 0.53%. Panel VECM causality analyses confirm one-way relationships from migration to GDP and from migration to unemployment. These results demonstrate that migration in OECD countries in the period 2000–2019 contributed to economic growth due to migrants’ investments in target countries and reducing unemployment by establishing employment opportunities. Accordingly, considering that migration provides economic growth and reduces unemployment, it is essential for future studies to examine the nature of the individuals migrating at an empirical level to determine appropriate policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Migration, Employment Market, Economic Growth, OECD countries

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