The Asymmetric Effects of Capital Flows on Economic Growth in Turkey

Öz

Globalization is one of the most fundamental phenomena that characterize the twentieth century. Economically, the liberalization of national economies both in commercial and especially in financial terms within the framework of the globalization process, in other words, liberalization of capital flows has been the most important applications. The liberalization of capital flows and the opening of national economies to world markets are expected to ensure stable economic growth and resource distribution efficiency, and increase the competitiveness of the country's economy. In this study, the asymmetric effects of capital flows on economic growth are investigated. The reason for this is the idea of the existence of nonlinear relationships between the variables that cannot be determined linear relationships. In the empirical analysis conducted using data the period of 1970-2016, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was used. According to the findings, capital flows have asymmetric effects on economic growth. Accordingly, while capital inflows lead to an increase in economic growth, capital outflows reduce economic growth. The most important result of the findings is that the positive effect of capital inflows on growth is smaller than the negative effect of capital inflows. In other words, the devastating impact of capital outflows has been observed to be greater in the Turkish economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Capital Flows,Economic Growth,ARDL,NARDL,Turkey

Türkiye’de Sermaye Akımlarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri

Öz

Yirminci yüzyılı karakterize eden en temel olguların başında küreselleşme gelmektedir. İktisadi açıdan, küreselleşme süreci çerçevesinde ulusal ekonomilerin hem ticari hem de özellikle finansal anlamda serbestleştirilmesi, yani sermaye akımlarının liberalizasyonu ortaya çıkan en önemli uygulamalar olmuştur. Sermaye akımlarının serbestleştirilmesi ve ulusal ekonomilerin dünya piyasalarına açılmasından beklenen, istikrarlı bir ekonomik büyüme ve kaynak dağılım etkinliğinin sağlanması, ülke ekonomisinin rekabet gücünün artırılmasıdır. Bu çalışmada sermaye akımlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki asimetrik etkileri araştırılmaktadır. Bunun nedeni, doğrusal ilişkiler tespit edilemeyen değişkenler arasında doğrusal olmayan ilişkilerin var olabilmesi düşüncesidir. Türkiye’nin 1970-2016 dönemine ilişkin verileri kullanılarak yapılan ampirik analizde, doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre sermaye akımları, ekonomik büyüme üzerinde asimetrik etkilere sahiptir. Buna göre, sermaye girişleri ekonomik büyümenin artmasına neden olurken, sermaye çıkışları ekonomik büyümenin azalmasına neden olmaktadır. Bulguların ortaya koyduğu en önemli sonuç, sermaye girişlerinin büyüme üzerindeki pozitif etkisinin, sermaye çıkışlarının negatif etkisinden daha küçük olmasıdır. Bir diğer ifade ile sermaye çıkışlarının yıkıcı etkisinin, Türkiye ekonomisinde daha büyük olduğu gözlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sermaye Akımları,Ekonomik Büyüme,ARDL,NARDL,Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. Altıner, A., Bozkurt, E. ve Toktaş, Y. (2018). Küreselleşme ve ekonomik büyüme: Yükselen piyasa ekonomileri için bir uygulama. Finans, Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 639, 117-162. Erişim Adresi: http://www.ekonomikyorumlar.com.tr
2. Apaydın, Ş. ve Şahin, H. (2017). Türkiye’de kısa vadeli sermaye akımlarının iktisadi dalgalanmalar üzerindeki etkileri: Bir uzun dönem kısıtlı SVAR modeli. Politik Ekonomik Kuram Dergisi, 1(1), 22-72. Erişim Adresi: http://dergipark.gov.tr/pek
3. Arestis, P., & Glickman, M. (2002). Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: Dispelling illusion the Minskyan Way. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 26, 237-260. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/26.2.237
4. Arrighi, G. (2000). Uzun yirminci yüzyıl: Para, güç ve çağımızın kökenleri (Çev. R. Boztemur). Ankara: İmge Kitabevi.
5. Aslan, N., Terzi, N. ve Siampan, E. (2014). Türkiye’de kısa vadeli sermaye hareketlerinin ekonomik büyüme ve reel döviz kuru ile ilişkisi. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5(10), 15-32. doi:10.14784/JFRS.2014104497.
6. Bank for International Settlements. (2009). Capital Flows and Emerging Market Economies (BIS Committee on the Global Financial System Papers, No. 33). Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/publ/cgfs33.pdf
7. Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 28(3), 423–442. doi:10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9.
8. Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2005). Financial and legal constraints to firm growth: Does size matter?. Journal of Finance, 60(1), 137–177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00727.x

9. Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1–2), 261–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00072-6
10. Blaug, M. (1978). Economic theory in retrospect (3th ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
11. Bordo, M. (2008, November). An historical perspective on the crisis of 2007-2008. Paper presented at the Bank of Chile Twelfth Annual Conference on Financial Stability, Monetary Policy and Central Banking. Santiago, Chile. Retrieved from http://michael.bordo.googlepages.com/An_Historical_perspective.pdf
12. Chang, C. P., Berdiev, A. N., & Lee, C. C. (2013). Energy exports, globalization and economic growth: The case of South Caucasus. Economic Modelling, 33, 333-346. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.027
13. Chang, C-P., & Lee, C-C. (2011). The effect of globalization and political party on economic growth: Panel data analysis of former communist countries and European OECD members. Eastern European Economics, 49(6), 5-26. https://doi.org/10.2753/EEE0012-8775490601
14. Çimenoğlu, A., & Yentürk, N. (2002). Effects of international capital inflows on the Turkish economy. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(1), 90-109. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org
15. Danışoğlu, A. (1999). Kısa vadeli sermaye hareketlerinin gelişmekte olan ülkeler ve Türkiye üzerindeki etkileri (Yayımlanmamış doktora tezi). İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
16. Davidson, P. (1998, November). The case for regulating international capital flows. Paper presented at the Social Market Foundation Seminar on Regulation Capital Movements. London, England. Doğan, B. ve Can, M. (2016). Küreselleşmenin büyümeye etkisi: Güney Kore örnekleminde eşbütünleşme analizi. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 6(2), 197-220. Erişim Adresi: http://dergipark.gov.tr/ckuiibfd
17. Dow, S. C. (1986-87). Post Keynesian Monetary Theory for an open economy. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 9(2), 237-257. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org
18. Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied Economics, 38, 1091-1110. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500392078
19. Dreher, A., Gaston, N., & Martens, P. (2008). Measuring globalisation – gauging its consequences. New York: Springer.
20. Eichengreen, B., Mussa, M., Dell'Ariccia, G., Detragiache, E., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., & Tweedie, A. (1999). Liberalizing capital movements: Some analytical issues. IMF Economic Issues, 17. Retrieved from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues17
21. Eren, A. A. (2014). James Steuart: Kapitalist üretim tarzının eleştirel tahliline giriş. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 3(4), 138-164. Erişim adresi: http://dergipark.gov.tr/sid
22. Eren, M. V. ve Çütçü, İ. (2018). Küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Türkiye üzerine ekonometrik bir analiz. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 47-61. Erişim adresi: http://www.siyasetekonomiyonetim.org
23. Ertürk, K. (2003). Parasal kriz teorisi üzerine notlar. A. H. Köse, F. Şenses, E. Yeldan (Ed.), İktisat Üzerine Yazılar II - İktisadi Kalkınma, Kriz ve İstikrar: Oktar Türel’e Armağan içinde (s. 225-244). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
24. Granger, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7
25. Gurgul, H., & Lach, L. (2014). Globalization and economic growth: Evidence from two decades of transition in CEE. Economic Modelling, 36, 99-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.022
26. Hayaloğlu, P., Kalaycı, C. ve Artan, S. (2015). Küreselleşme farklı gelir grubundaki ülkelerde ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilemektedir?. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(1), 119-152. Erişim adresi: https://www.researchgate.net
27. Huang, H., & Lin, S. C. (2009). Non-linear finance–growth nexus. Economics of Transition 17(3), 439-466. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0351.2009.00360.x
28. İnsel, A. ve Sungur, N. (2003). Sermaye akımlarının temel makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği-1989: III-1999:IV (Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu, Tartışma Metni 2003/8). Erişim adresi: http://www.tek.org.tr.
29. Kindleberger, C. P. (2007). Cinnet, panik ve çöküş: Mali krizler tarihi (Çev. H. Tunalı). İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
30. King, G. R., & Levine, R. (1993a). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118406
31. King, G. R., & Levine, R. (1993b). Finance, entrepreneurship and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90028-E
32. Kocourek, A., Laboutková, Š., & Bednářová, P. (2013). Economic, social and political globalization and human development. International Journal of Business and Economic Development, 1(2), 10-20. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net
33. Kose, M. A., Prasad, E., Rogoff, K., & Wei, S. J. (2010). Financial globalization and economic policies. In D. Rodrik, & M. Rosenzweig (Eds.), Handbook of Development Economics Volume 5 (pp. 4283-4362). The Netherlands: North-Holland.
34. Kregel, J. A. (1998). Yes, ‘It’ did happen again - A Minsky Crisis happened in Asia (The Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, No. 234). Retrieved from http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp234.pdf
35. Law, S. H., & Singh, N. (2014). Does too much finance harm economic growth?. Journal of Banking and Finance, 41, 36-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.020
36. Leitao, N. C. (2013). Cultural globalization and economic growth. The Romanian Economic Journal, 47, 17-28. Retrieved from http://www.rejournal.eu
37. Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688-726. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org
38. Levine, R. (2002). International financial liberalization and economic growth. Review of International Economics, 9(4), 688-702. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9396.00307
39. Levine, R. (2003). More on finance and growth: More finance, more growth?. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 85, 31–46. Retrieved from https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/03/07/Levine.pdf
40. Levine, R., Loayze, N., & Beck, T. (2000). Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(1), 31-77. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00017-9
41. Marx, K. (1867). Kapital, kapitalist üretimin eleştirel bir tahlili, (8. bs., 2007, Cilt 1, Çev. A. Bilgi). Ankara: Sol Yayınları.
42. Marx, K. (1894). Kapital, ekonomi politiğin eleştirisi (5. bs., 2006, Cilt 3, Çev. A. Bilgi). Ankara: Sol Yayınları.
43. Mishkin, F. (1996). Understanding financial crises: A developing country perspective (NBER Working Paper No. 5600). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
44. Mishkin, F. (1998). International capital mobility, financial volatility and financial instability (NBER Working Paper No. 6390). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
45. Mishkin, F. (1999). Lessons from the Asian Crisis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 18, 709-723. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(99)00020-0
46. Mitchell, W. C. (1951). Business cycles. In Readings in Business Cycle Theory (pp. 43-60). Homewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin,
47. Narayan, S., & Narayan, P. K. (2004). Determinants of demand of Fiji’s exports: An empirical investigation. The Developing Economics, 17(1), 95-112. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2004.tb01017.x
48. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (1997). Economic globalisation and the environment. Paris: OECD Publications.
49. Osterloh, S. (2012). Words speak louder than actions: The impact of politics on economic performance. Journal of Comparative Economics, 40(3), 318-336. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2012.05.004
50. Palley, T. I. (1999). International finance and problems of capital account governance. Paper presented at the 9th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference of Financial Structure, Levy Institute Conference Proceedings. Annandale-on-Hudson, New York. Retrieve from http://www.levy.org/pubs/min99.pdf
51. Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century. Paper presented at The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
52. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
53. Rajan, R., & Zingales, L. (2003). The great reversals: The politics of financial development in the twentieth century. Journal of Financial Economics, 69(1), 5-50. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(03)00125-9
54. Rioja, F., & Valev, N. (2004a). Does one size fit all? Are examination of the finance and growth relationship. Journal of Development Economics, 74(2), 429-447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.06.006
55. Rioja, F., & Valev, N. (2004b). Finance and the sources of growth at various stages of economic development. Economic Inquiry, 42(1), 127-140. https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/cbh049
56. Sapkota, J. B. (2010). Globalization`s convergence effect on human quality of life (QOL) in Asia: Evidence from the KOF index of globalization. Asian Regional Integration Review, 2(1), 1-28. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net
57. Schularick, M., & Steger, T. M. (2010). Financial integration, investment and economic growth: Evidence from two eras of financial globalization. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 756-768. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00027
58. Schumpeter, J. A. (1954). History of economic analysis. New York: Oxford University Press.
59. Shen, C. H., & Lee, C. C. (2006). Same financial development yet different economic growth - why?. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 38(7), 1907-1944. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/mcb.2006.0095
60. Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2011). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multiplier in a nonlinear ARDL framework. Retrieved from http://ssrn.com/abstract=1807745
61. Smith, A. (1776). An inquiry into the nature and causes of wealth of nations. New York: MetaLibri. Retrieved from https://www.ibiblio.org/ml/libri/s/SmithA_WealthNations_p.pdf
62. Suci, S. C., Asmara, A., & Mulatsih, S. (2015). The impact of globalization on economic growth in ASEAN. International Journal of Administrative Science & Organization, 22(2), 79-87. Retrieved from http://journal.ui.ac.id
63. Tornell, A., & Westermann, F. (2002). Boom-bust cycles in middle income countries: Facts and explanation (NBER Working Paper No. 9219). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
64. Türedi, S. (2016, October). Küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için panel veri analizi. International Osmaneli Social Sciences Congress’de sunulan bildiri. Korkuteli, Türkiye. 12-13-14 October. Erişim adresi: https://www.researchgate.net
65. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2000). Trade and development report 2000. New York: United Nations. Retrieved from https://unctad.org/en/Docs/tdr2000_en.pdf
66. Villaverde, J., & Maza, A. (2011). Globalization, growth and convergence. World Economy, 34(6), 952-971. https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01359.x
67. Yeldan, E. (2001). Küreselleşme sürecinde Türkiye ekonomisi. İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
68. Ying, Y-H., Chang, K., & Lee, C-H. (2014). The impact of globalization on economic growth. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 17(2), 25-34. Retrieved from http://www.ipe.ro/rjef