Türkiye İle Çin İkili Ticaretinde J Eğrisi: NARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Dünyanın en büyük ihracatçısı ve en büyük ikinci ithalatçısı olan Çin ile Türkiye’nin dış ticaret hacmi son on yıldır sürekli artmaktadır. Bu ticaretin Türkiye ekonomisi açısından önemli bir boyutu da tarihsel olarak Türkiye’nin Çin’e karşı 1990 yılından beri kesintisiz olarak dış ticaret açığı veriyor olmasıdır. Bu çalışma Türkiye ile önemli bir ticari ortağı haline gelen Çin arasındaki ikili dış ticarette döviz kurunun etkisini J eğrisinin sunduğu teorik çerçeve içerisinde incelemektedir. 2013-2019 dönemi aylık verileriyle hem kısa ve uzun dönem etkileri ayrı ayrı ölçmeyi sağlayan hem de döviz kurunun etkisini asimetrik olarak modellenmesine olanak sağlayan NARDL modeli hem ekonominin geneli hem de önemli sektörler için tahmin edilmiştir. Döviz kurunun asimetrik etkileri yalnızca kısa dönemde tespit edilirken asimetrik etkiler geçerli olduğu tüm sektörlerde negatiftir. Döviz kurunun kısa dönem etkilerine bakıldığında ekonominin toplamı ile birlikte yalnızca üç sektörde (Kültür, Sanat ve Eğlence, Mobilya imalatı ve İmalat sanayi toplamı) etkilidir ve etkinin yönü tümünde negatiftir. Son olarak incelenen dönemde hiçbir sektör için J eğrisini destekleyici bulguya rastlanmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dış Ticaret
• Döviz Kuru
• J Eğrisi
• NARDL
• Çin

Industrial Level J Curve in Turkey and China Bilateral Trade: A NARDL Approach

Öz

The trade volume of Turkey and China that is the largest exporter and second-largest importer of the world, has been increasing over the past ten years. An important dimension of this trade is that the Turkish economy has historically foreign trade deficit since 1990 interruptedly. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the exchange rate in bilateral trade between China and Turkey according to the theoretical framework provided by the J curve. With the monthly data of 2013-2019, the NARDL model, which allows to measure both short and long-term effects separately and allows the exchange rate effect to be modeled asymmetrically, has been estimated. Asymmetric effects of the exchange rate are detected only in the short term, while asymmetric effects are adverse in all sectors where it is valid. Considering the short-term effects of the exchange rate, it is effective only in three sectors (Culture, Arts and Entertainment, Furniture manufacturing, and manufacturing industry) together with the total of the economy, and the direction of the impact is negative in all. Finally, no findings supporting the J curve were found for any sector in the period examined.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Trade
• Exchange Rate
• J Curve
• NARDL
• China

Kaynakça

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