Türkiye'de Yoksulluğa Karşı Kırılganlık

Öz

Araştırmacılar uzun yıllar yalnızca yoksulların profilini ortaya koymaya veya yoksulluğun belirleyicilerinin tespitine odaklanmıştır. Tüm bu girişimler bireyler/haneler yoksulluğa düştükten sonra gerçekleştirilmektedir. Politika yapımı açısından kritik olan bireylerin yoksulluğa düşmesini önlemektir. Bu nedenle yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlığı nelerin belirlediğinin bilinmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu bağlamda, mevcut çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'deki yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlığın boyutunu ve belirleyicilerini, biri kırılganlığı beklenen yoksulluk diğeri düşük beklenen fayda açısından ele alan, iki yöntemden istifade ederek ortaya koymaktır. Veri Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması’dan gelmekte olup 2006-2017 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Analiz hem kesit hem de panel veri düzeyinde gerçekleştirilmiştir. Havuzlanmış kesit veriden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, hanehalklarının %13'ü yoksulluğa karşı kırılgandır. Bölgesel analiz, yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlık anlamında, doğu ve batı arasında büyük bir fark olduğunu göstermektedir. Panel verinin kullanıldığı beklenen fayda teorisine dayanan modelden elde edilen bulgular, 2006-2009 ve 2014-2017 dönemlerinde yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlığın, sırasıyla, 0.49 ve 0.55 olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Hane liderinin eğitim düzeyi, istihdam ve sağlık durumu yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlığı belirleyen en önemli etmenlerdir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kırılganlık
• Türkiye
• Yoksulluk

Vulnerability to Poverty in Turkey

Öz

For many years, researchers have focused only on revealing the profile of poor or demonstrate determinants of poverty. All these initiatives are carried out after individuals/households fall into poverty. It is to prevent individuals from falling into poverty which is critical for policymaking. Therefore, it is essential to know what determines vulnerability to poverty. In this context, present study aims to demonstrate the size and determinants of vulnerability to poverty in Turkey by taking advantage of two methods which one considers the vulnerability as expected poverty and other as low expected utility. Data come from Survey on Income and Living Conditions and covers the period 2006-2017. Analysis has been performed at both the cross-sectional and panel data level. According to the findings obtained from the pooled cross-sectional data, 13% of households are vulnerable. Regional analysis shows that there is a big difference between East and West in terms of vulnerability to poverty. Findings from the model based on expected utility theory using panel data have revealed that vulnerability to poverty in the period 2006-2009 and 2014-2017 is 0.49 and 0.55, respectively. Education level, employment and health status of household leader are the most critical factors that determine vulnerability to poverty.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Poverty
• Turkey
• Vulnerability

Kaynakça

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