Türkiye'de Yoksulluğa Karşı Kırılganlık

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 210 - 227, 31.08.2020

Ömer Limanlı

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.740715

Öz

Araştırmacılar uzun yıllar yalnızca yoksulların profilini ortaya koymaya veya yoksulluğun belirleyicilerinin tespitine odaklanmıştır. Tüm bu girişimler bireyler/haneler yoksulluğa düştükten sonra gerçekleştirilmektedir. Politika yapımı açısından kritik olan bireylerin yoksulluğa düşmesini önlemektir. Bu nedenle yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlığı nelerin belirlediğinin bilinmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu bağlamda, mevcut çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'deki yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlığın boyutunu ve belirleyicilerini, biri kırılganlığı beklenen yoksulluk diğeri düşük beklenen fayda açısından ele alan, iki yöntemden istifade ederek ortaya koymaktır. Veri Gelir ve Yaşam Koşulları Araştırması’dan gelmekte olup 2006-2017 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Analiz hem kesit hem de panel veri düzeyinde gerçekleştirilmiştir. Havuzlanmış kesit veriden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, hanehalklarının %13'ü yoksulluğa karşı kırılgandır. Bölgesel analiz, yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlık anlamında, doğu ve batı arasında büyük bir fark olduğunu göstermektedir. Panel verinin kullanıldığı beklenen fayda teorisine dayanan modelden elde edilen bulgular, 2006-2009 ve 2014-2017 dönemlerinde yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlığın, sırasıyla, 0.49 ve 0.55 olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Hane liderinin eğitim düzeyi, istihdam ve sağlık durumu yoksulluğa karşı kırılganlığı belirleyen en önemli etmenlerdir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kırılganlık, Türkiye, Yoksulluk

Vulnerability to Poverty in Turkey

Öz

For many years, researchers have focused only on revealing the profile of poor or demonstrate determinants of poverty. All these initiatives are carried out after individuals/households fall into poverty. It is to prevent individuals from falling into poverty which is critical for policymaking. Therefore, it is essential to know what determines vulnerability to poverty. In this context, present study aims to demonstrate the size and determinants of vulnerability to poverty in Turkey by taking advantage of two methods which one considers the vulnerability as expected poverty and other as low expected utility. Data come from Survey on Income and Living Conditions and covers the period 2006-2017. Analysis has been performed at both the cross-sectional and panel data level. According to the findings obtained from the pooled cross-sectional data, 13% of households are vulnerable. Regional analysis shows that there is a big difference between East and West in terms of vulnerability to poverty. Findings from the model based on expected utility theory using panel data have revealed that vulnerability to poverty in the period 2006-2009 and 2014-2017 is 0.49 and 0.55, respectively. Education level, employment and health status of household leader are the most critical factors that determine vulnerability to poverty.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Poverty, Turkey, Vulnerability

Kaynakça

• Alwang, J., Siegel, P. B., and Jorgensen, S. L. (2001). Vulnerability: A view from different disciplines (The World Bank Social Protection Discussion Paper Series No. 0115). Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/636921468765021121/pdf/multi0page.pdf
• Amemiya, T. (1977). The maximum likelihood and the nonlinear three-stage least squares estimator in the general nonlinear simultaneous equation model. Econometrica, 45(4), 955–968. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912684
• Angelillo, N. (2014). Vulnerability to poverty in China: a subjective poverty line approach. Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 12(4), 315–331. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2014.952512
• Bane, M. J., and Ellwood, D. T. (1986). Slipping into and out of poverty: The dynamics of spells. The Journal of Human Resources, 21(1), 1–23. https://doi.org/10.2307/145955
• Banerjee, A., and Newman, A. F. (1994). Poverty, incentives, and development. The American Economic Review, 84(2), 211–215. Retrieved from www.jstor.org/stable/2117831
• Ceriani, L. (2018). Vulnerability to poverty: Empirical findings. In C. D’Ambrosio (Ed.), Handbook of research on economic and social well-being (pp. 284–299). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781953716.00017
• Chaudhuri, S. (2003). Assessing vulnerability to poverty: Concepts, empirical methods and illustrative examples. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4461/840126dab19ab38692628d35de9516e6dcc0.pdf
• Chaudhuri, S., Jalan, J., and Suryahadi, A. (2002). Assessing household vulnerability to poverty from cross-sectional data: A methodology and estimates from Indonesia (Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 0102–52). Retrieved from https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D85149GF
• Demissie, B. S., and Kasie, T. A. (2017). Rural households’ vulnerability to poverty in Ethiopia. Journal of Poverty, 21(6), 528–542. https://doi.org/10.1080/10875549.2017.1348425
• Fujii, T. (2016). Concepts and measurement of vulnerability to poverty and other issues: A review of literature (ADBI Working Paper No. 611). Retrieved from https://www.adb.org/publications/concepts-and-measurement-vulnerability-poverty
• Gallardo, M. (2018). Identifying vulnerability to poverty: A critical survey. Journal of Economic Surveys, 32(4), 1074–1105. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12216
• Hoddinott, J., and Quisumbing, A. (2003). Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments (The World Bank Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 29138). Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/948651468780562854/pdf/29138.pdf
• Hoogeveen, J., Tesliuc, E., Vakis, R., and Dercon, S. (2004). A guide to the analysis of risk, vulnerability and vulnerable groups. Retrieved from https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8a3b/ed61eaf8ac5a69744257e99dda7afbd57890.pdf?_ga=2.76820245.1883133982.1586614909-1351540577.1586614909
• Kamanou, G., and Morduch, J. (2002). Measuring vulnerability to poverty (WIDER Discussion Paper No. 2002/58). Retrieved from https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/dp2002-58.pdf
• Klasen, S., and Waibel, H. (Eds.). (2013). Vulnerability to poverty. Palgrave Macmillan UK. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230306622
• Ligon, E., and Schechter, L. (2003). Measuring vulnerability. The Economic Journal, 113(486), 95–102. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.00117
• Ligon, E., and Schechter, L. (2004). Evaluating different approaches to estimating vulnerability. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1776646
• Mahanta, R., and Das, D. (2015). Vulnerability to poverty: A survey. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2621859
• Mina, C. D., and Imai, K. S. (2017). Estimation of vulnerability to poverty using a multilevel longitudinal model: Evidence from the Philippines. The Journal of Development Studies, 53(12), 2118–2144. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2016.1265942
• Morduch, J. (1994). Poverty and vulnerability. The American Economic Review, 84(2), 221–225. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2117833
• Pietrelli, R., and Scaramozzino, P. (2019). Internal migration and vulnerability to poverty in Tanzania. Population and Development Review, 45(3), 525–547. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12247
• Ravallion, M. (1988). Expected poverty under risk-induced welfare variability. The Economic Journal, 98(393), 1171–1182. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233725
• Sen, A. (1976). Poverty: An ordinal approach to measurement. Econometrica, 44(2), 219–231. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912718
• Tekgüç, H. (2013). Self-produced food and vulnerability to poverty in Turkey. METU Studies in Development, 40, 493–523.
• Tigre, G. (2019). Vulnerability to poverty in Ethiopia. In P. Nilsson & A. Heshmati (Eds.), Efficiency, equity and well-being in selected African countries (pp. 69–96). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-11419-0_4
• Yaqub, S. (2000). Poverty dynamics in developing countries (Development Bibliography No. 16). Retrieved from http://www.ophi.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/ssYaqub-2000.pdf
• Yemtsov, R. (2001). Living standards and economic vulnerability in Turkey between 1987 and 1994 (IZA Discussion Paper No. 253). Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/21102