Konut Fiyatlarının Hedonik Fiyat Modeli Çerçevesinde Semiparametrik Tahmin Kullanılarak Belirlenmesi: İstanbul Konut Piyasası Örneği Durum Çalışması

Öz

Konutların sahip oldukları birbirinden farklı özellikler, konut piyasalarına heterojen yapı kazandırmıştır. Dolayısıyla konut piyasası hedonik fiyat modeli ile analiz edilebilir. Bu doğrultuda çalışma, heterojen yapıya sahip olan konut piyasasındaki fiyat değişimlerini takip edebilmek amacıyla, konutların sahip olduğu farklı karakteristik özelliklerin konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerinin ortaya çıkarılması bakımından önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada amaçlanan ise İstanbul ili için apartman dairesi türündeki konut özelliklerinin fiyat üzerindeki etkisinin hedonik fiyat modeli kapsamında incelenmesidir. Bu amaçla 974 daire, konut fiyatları ve fiyatları etkileyen faktörler için semiparametrik regresyon modelleri ile tahmin yapılmıştır. Çünkü semiparametrik tahmin, veri setini belirli varsayımlara zorlamaması ve bağımlı değişken üzerinde doğrusal olmayan etkiye sahip değişken yapısı söz konusu olduğu durumda bu yapıyı dikkate alması bakımından parametrik tahmine göre daha üstündür. Elde edilen bulgulara göre satılık konut fiyatlarını (apartman dairesi) en çok etkileyen özellikler olarak sırayla otopark değişkeni, krediye uygunluk değişkeni ve asansör değişkeni olarak belirlenmiştir. Nonparametrik olarak ele alınan değişkenlerden ise metrekare değişkeninin 400 m2 den sonra ev fiyatları üzerinde azaltıcı bir etki yarattığı, bina yaşının ise 15 yıldan sonra fiyatlar üzerinde pozitif etki yarattığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İstanbul Konut Piyasası
• Hedonik Fiyat Modeli
• Nonparametrik Yaklaşım
• Semiparametrik Tahmin

Determining Housing Prices Using The Semiparametric Estimation Within The Hedonic Price Model Framework: Case Study of Istanbul Housing Market Example

Öz

Different properties of the houses have given heterogeneous structure to the housing markets. Therefore, the housing market can be analyzed with the hedonic price model In this direction, this study is important in terms of revealing the effects of different characteristics of houses on housing prices to follow the price changes in the housing market. The study aims to examine the effect of flat-type residential properties in İstanbul on the price within the scope of hedonic price model. For this purpose, estimation was made with semiparametric regression models for 974 flat-house, housing prices and factors affecting prices. In as much as the semiparametric estimation is superior to parametric estimation in that it doesn’t force the data set to certain assumptions and takes into account the variable structure that has a nonlinear effect on the dependent variable. According to the findings, the properties that affect the housing prices (apartment) for sale are determined as the parking variable, credit eligibility variable, and elevator variable respectively. As for the nonparametric variables, it was concluded that the square meter variable had a reducing effect on house prices after 400 m2, and the age of housing had a positive effect on prices after 15 years.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Istanbul Housing Market
• Hedonik Price Model
• Nonparametric Approach
• Semiparametric Estimation

Kaynakça

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