IPO Valuation and IPO Inter-Industry Effects

Öz

This study examines the valuation effects of initial public offerings (IPOs) and intra-industry effects of IPOs in Turkey between 2010 and 2018. The purpose of this study is to find out whether initial public offerings are overvalued and whether they impact the pricing of industry peers. First, the valuation of IPOs is investigated. Price-to-value ratios of Turkish IPOs are compared with sector average ratios to determine whether IPOs are overvalued. Turkish IPOs are not overvalued against industry rivals’ price-to-value ratios based on sales and earnings-before-interest-taxes-depreciation-and-amortization (EBITDA) and earnings. Similarly, valuation based on price-to-value ratios is not related to initial pricing of IPOs. Second, the intra-industry effects of IPOs are investigated. Sector-adjusted abnormal returns of IPOs are compared to market-adjusted abnormal returns. The results are not affirmative: There is no statistically significant difference between the two abnormal returns. Turkish IPOs do trigger significant price declines on rival companies’ stocks. Altogether, the findings indicate that there is neither overvaluation of IPOs nor intra-industry effects over rival companies. Companies do not time the market based on industrial overvaluation. This may indicate market efficiency or lack of competition in the IPO market.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• IPOs
• Valuation
• Underpricing
• Intra-Industry Effects
• Price-to-Value Ratios

İlk Halka Arzlarda Değerleme ve İlk Halka Arzların Sektörel Etkileri

Öz

Bu çalışma 2010 ve 2018 döneminde Türkiye’deki ilk halka arzların değerleme etkileri ve sektörel etkilerini incelemektedir. Çalışmanın amacı ilk halka arzlarda yüksek değerlendirmenin ve ilk halka arzların aynı sektörde faaliyet gösteren halka açık şirketlere olumsuz bir fiyat etkisinin tespit edilmesidir. İlk halka arzların göreceli değerlerini belirlemek için fiyat-değer oranları, sektördeki diğer firmaların ortalama fiyat-değer oranları ile karşılaştırılmaktadır. Fiyat-değer oranları satışlar; faiz, amortisman ve vergi öncesi kar (FAVÖK); ve net kazanç tutarları kullanılarak hesaplandığında ilk halka arzlar yüksek değerlendirilmediği görülmektedir. Fiyat-değer oranları ilk halka arzların fiyatlaması ile de anlamlı bir ilişki sergilememektedir. İkinci olarak, ilk halka arzların sektörel etkilerini incelemek için ortalama pazar getirisine göre ayarlanmış anormal getiriler, ortalama sektör getirisine göre ayarlanmış anormal getirilerle karşılaştırılmaktadır. Sonuçlar olumlu değildir: Her iki getiri arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir fark bulunmamaktadır. Bu da ilk halka arzların rakip firma fiyatlarında bir düşüşe neden olmadığını göstermektedir. Sonuçlar beraber ele alındığında halka arz edilen hisse senetlerinde yüksek değerlendirme görülmemekte, ayrıca ilk halka arzlar sektördeki rakiplerin fiyatlarında etki yapmamaktadır. Şirketler halka arz edilmeyi planlarken sektörel bazda pazar zamanlaması yapmamaktadırlar. Bunun nedeni pazarın etkinliği olabileceği gibi ilk halka arz pazarındaki zayıf rekabet de olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İlk Halka Arz
• Değerleme
• Düşük Fiyatlama
• Sektörel Etkiler
• Fiyat-Değer Oranları

Kaynakça

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