Yapay Zeka Yöntemleri İle Hisse Senedi Fiyat Öngörüleri

Öz

Finansal varlık fiyatlarının geleceğinin tahmin edilmesi literatür ve uygulamada uzun zamandır ilgi çeken bir konudur. Son yıllarda, borsaya kote şirketlerin hisse senetlerinin fiyat hareketleri öngörme ve geleceğe dönük değerlerini tahmin etme hedefi için yapay zeka algoritmalarının başarılı yöntemler sundukları farklı akademik çalışmalarca ortaya konulmuştur. Belirtilen akademik çalışmaların büyük çoğunluğu yurt dışında bulunan piyasalarda yapılmıştır. Bu durumun geçerliliğini BIST 30 endeksi hisselerinde test etmek için bu çalışmada yedi farklı yapay zeka algoritması programlanmış, 30 hissenin 2014-2016 yılları günlük kapanış fiyatı verileri ile algoritmalar eğitilmiş ve bir firma için üretilen kapanış değerleri tahminleri gerçekleşen değerlerle kıyaslanmıştır. Veri seti için 02/01/2014 ve 30/12/2016 tarihleri arasında işlem yapılan 755 iş günü kullanılmıştır. Kullanılan öğrenme sürelerinin performans üzerindeki etkilerini görmek için öğrenme/tahmin oranları %80/20, %90/10, %99/1 olarak belirlenen üç farklı deney yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda doğrusal regresyon temelli algoritmaların BIST30 hisse senedi fiyat hareket yönünü tahmin etmede, nöral ağ ve Poisson regresyonu yöntemlerinin ise kapanış fiyatı değerini tahmin etmede etkili oldukları görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Zaman Serileri
• Yapay Zeka
• Makine Ogrenmesi
• Borsa Analizi
• Regresyon

Stock Price Predictions Using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Öz

Forecasting the future of stock market prices has been an interesting topic for researchers and professionals for a long time. Lately, numerous academic papers have shown that artificial intelligence algorithms generate some successful forecasts for stock prices. Most of these referenced research papers are conducted in markets outside Turkey. To test this hypothesis in BIST 30 index companies, seven different artificial intelligence algorithms have been programmed and trained with a dataset of daily closing prices between 2014 and 2016. The dataset consists of 755 market days starting 02/01/2014 and ending 30/12/2016. Then, forecasted numbers have been compared to actual prices for one particular stock. To see the effects of amount of learning days used to performance, 3 experiments have been conducted with learning to prediction ratios of %80/20, %90/10 and %99/1. In conclusion, it is seen that linear regression-based algorithms perform well to predict the price movements while neural network and Poisson regression algorithms perform well to predict closing price values for BIST 30 stocks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Financial Time Series
• Artificial Intelligence
• Machine Learning
• Market Analysis
• Regression

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