The trade volume of Turkey and China that is the largest exporter and second-largest importer of the world, has been increasing over the past ten years. An important dimension of this trade is that the Turkish economy has historically foreign trade deficit since 1990 interruptedly. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the exchange rate in bilateral trade between China and Turkey according to the theoretical framework provided by the J curve. With the monthly data of 2013-2019, the NARDL model, which allows to measure both short and long-term effects separately and allows the exchange rate effect to be modeled asymmetrically, has been estimated. Asymmetric effects of the exchange rate are detected only in the short term, while asymmetric effects are adverse in all sectors where it is valid. Considering the short-term effects of the exchange rate, it is effective only in three sectors (Culture, Arts and Entertainment, Furniture manufacturing, and manufacturing industry) together with the total of the economy, and the direction of the impact is negative in all. Finally, no findings supporting the J curve were found for any sector in the period examined.
Yayımlanma Tarihi : 31 Ağustos 2020
|APA||Küçüksoy, N , Akkoç, U . (2020). Türkiye İle Çin İkili Ticaretinde J Eğrisi: NARDL Yaklaşımı . Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi , 5 (2) , 190-209 . DOI: 10.30784/epfad.732614|