The Effect of Positive and Negative Events on Cryptocurrency Prices

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 16 - 31, 31.03.2022

Emrah Öget

https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.1011204

Cited By: 2

Öz

In recent years, cryptocurrencies have become a new topic for financial studies. In this study, the effects of positive and negative events related to cryptocurrencies on the prices of related cryptocurrencies were researched using the event study. These events include major listing, delisting and airdrop announcements, and SEC enforcements. As a result of the analysis, 22 significant abnormal return values related to negative events and eight significant abnormal return values related to positive events were determined at 1% significance level within the event window (-5, +10). Therefore, it has been determined that negative events have more effect on cryptocurrencies than positive events. The number of significant cumulative abnormal return values obtained (13 for negative events, three for positive events) also supports these results. The results of the study have crucial implications for investors, centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, and cryptocurrency CEOs. Even after the negative events were announced publicly, pull out of the market will prevent investors from making more losses. In addition, it is recommended that investors sell for profits in case of a rapid high return on the day of the listing announcement. Because it was determined that the prices returned to the equilibrium prices at the closing.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Event Study, Cryptocurrency, Abnormal Return, Altcoin

Olumlu ve Olumsuz Olayların Kripto Para Fiyatları Üzerindeki Etkisi

Öz

Son yıllarda kripto paralar, finansal çalışmalar için yeni bir konu haline gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada kripto paralarla ilgili olumlu ve olumsuz olayların ilgili kripto paraların fiyatları üzerindeki etkileri olay çalışması yöntemi kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Bu olaylar büyük listeleme ve liste dışı bırakma duyuruları, airdrop duyuruları ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Menkul Kıymetler ve Borsa Komisyonu yaptırımlarını içermektedir. Analizler sonucunda (-5, +10) olay penceresi içerisinde %1 güven seviyesinde olumsuz olaylarla ilgili 22 ve olumlu olaylarla ilgili 8 anlamlı anormal getiri değeri tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla olumsuz olayların kripto paralar üzerinde olumlu olaylardan daha fazla etkisinin bulunduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Elde edilen anlamlı kümülatif anormal getiri değerlerinin sayıları da (olumsuz olaylar için 13, olumlu olaylar için üç) bu sonuçları destekler niteliktedir. Çalışmanın sonuçları yatırımcılar, merkezi kripto para borsaları ve kripto para yöneticileri için önemli çıkarımlara sahiptir. Özelikle kripto paralarla ilgili olumsuz olaylar kamuoyuyla paylaşıldıktan sonra bile piyasadan çıkılması, yatırımcıların daha fazla zarar etmesini engelleyecektir. Ayrıca listeleme duyurularının yapıldığı gün içerisinde anlık yüksek bir getiri oluşması durumunda yatırımcıların kar alması tavsiye edilmektedir. Çünkü kapanışta fiyatların denge fiyatlarına döndüğü tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Olay Çalışması, Kripto Para, Anormal Getiri, Altcoin

Kaynakça

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