Yetersiz veri ortamında tahminler için örnek bir uygulama: gri tahmin yöntemi

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 31 Sayı: 1, 82 - 88, 01.02.2015

Erkan Köse Haka Soner Aplak Mehmet Kabak

Öz

Gri tahmin yöntemi sistem davranışları hakkında yeterli tecrübemizin bulunmadığı ve sınırlı sayıda veriye ulaşılabildiği durumlarda tatmin edici sonuçlar üretebilen bir tahmin yöntemidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, doğası gereği sınırlı sayıda veriye ulaşılabilen sistemler için gri tahmin yönteminin etkinliğini test etmektir. Çalışmada bir üniversitede dört yıllık lisans eğitimini tamamlamış öğrencilerin ilk beş yarıyıllık akademik başarı ortalamaları kullanılarak mezuniyet notları tahmin edilmeye çalışılmış ve elde edilen sonuçlar gerçek mezuniyet notları ile karşılaştırılmıştır. Ulaşılan sonuçlar incelendiğinde gri tahmin yönteminin yetersiz veri ortamında oldukça iyi sayılabilecek tahmin sonuçları ürettiği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gri Sistem Teorisi, Gri Tahmin

A case study for prediction in inadequate data environment: grey prediction method

Öz

Grey prediction method is a prediction method that produces satisfactory results when we do not have enough experience about system behaviors and we can reach only a limited number of data. The purpose of this study is to examine effectiveness of grey prediction method in systems which as a course of their nature limited number of data can be reached. In this study we try to predict graduation grade of students who are complete four-year undergraduate education in a university by using their first five semesters’ academic success average and compare results with real values. When the outcomes studied it has seen that the grey prediction method produce very satisfactory results in the circumstances of poor data.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Grey System Theory, Grey Prediction

Kaynakça

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