BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

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Yıl 2014, , 83 - 106, 18.05.2015
https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.46616

Öz

The aim of this paper is to analyse the bilateral trade balance between Turkey and Germany. For this purpose, recently developed Bounds test cointegration approach based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag model is conducted by using monthly data over the period from 2002 to 2012. According to the estimation results, the real depreciation of the Turkish Lira have a statistically significant positive impact on Turkey’s trade balance with Germany in the short and long run. Inaddition, the empirical results indicate that industrial production indexes taken as a proxy for income of two countries have the expected effects on the trade balance

Kaynakça

  • ACARAVCI, Ali ve İlhan ÖZTÜRK; (2003), “Döviz Kurundaki Değişkenliğin Türkiye İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Review of So- cial, Economic & Business Studies, 2, ss.197-206.
  • AKTAŞ, Cengiz; (2010), “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Tekniği İle Analizi”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(11), ss.123-140.
  • AKTAŞ, Cengiz ve Veysel YILMAZ; (2008), “Gümrük Birliği Sonrası Türki- ye’nin İhracat Fonksiyonunun Tahmini”, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(13), ss.89-104.
  • AL-SHARKAS, Adel; (2004), “The Dynamic Relationship Between Macroeco- nomics Factors and the Jordanian Stock Market”, International Jour- nal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1(1), pp. 97- 114.
  • ALEXANDER, Sidney; (1959), “Effects of Devaluation: A Simplified Synthe- sis of Elasticities and Absorption Approaches”, American Economic Review, 49(1), pp. 21-42.
  • ALTINTAŞ, Halil; Rahmi ÇETİN and Bülent ÖZ; (2011), “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Exports: 1993-2009”, South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), pp. 71-81.
  • ARIZE, Augustine C.; Thomas OSANG and T. Daniel SLOTTJE; (2008), “Exchange Rate Volatility in Latin America and its Impact on Foreign Trade”, International Review of Economics and Finance,17(1), pp. 33-44.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; (2001), “Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates of Middle Eastern Countries and Their Trade Perfor- mance”, Applied Economics, 33(1), pp. 103-111.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; (1991), “Is There A Long-Run Relation Between The Trade Balance and The Real Effective Exchange Rate of LDCs?”, Economics Letters, 36(4), pp. 403-407.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Hanafiah HARVEY; (2006), “How Sen- sitive Are Malaysia’s Bilateral Trade Flows to Depreciation”, Applied Economics, 38(11), pp. 1279-1286.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Janardhanan ALSE; (1994), “Short-Run Versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration”, Eastern Economic Journal, 20(4), pp. 453-464.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Yongqing WANG; (2006), “The J-Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 58(4), pp. 323-343.
  • BICKERDIKE, Charles Frederick; (1920), “The Instability of Foreign Exchan- ge”, The Economic Journal, 30(117), pp. 118-122.
  • BOYD, Derick; Gugielmo M. CAPORALE and Ron SMITH; (2001), “Real Exchange Rate Effects on The Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6, pp. 187-200.
  • BROWN, R. L.; James DURBIN and J. M. EVANS; (1975), “Techniques for Testing The Constancy of Regression Relations Over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37, pp. 149-163.
  • COŞAR, Evren Erdoğan; (2002), “Price and Income Elasticities of Turkish Export Demand: A Panel Data Application”, Central Bank Review, 2, pp. 19-53.
  • ÇİL YAVUZ, Nilgün; Burak GÜRİŞ ve Burcu KIRAN; (2010), “Reel döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Marshall-Lerner Koşulunun Testi”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 24(287), ss.69- 90.
  • DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1979), “Distribution of the Esti- mators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366), pp. 427-431.
  • DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statis- tics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), pp. 1057-1072.
  • DOĞANLAR, Murat; (2002), “Estimating the Impact of Exchange Rate Volati- lity on Exports Evidence from Asian Countries”, Applied Economics Letters, 9(13), pp. 859-863.
  • DORNBUSCH, Rudiger; (1973), “Devaluation, Money and Non-traded Goods”, American Economic Review, 63(5), pp. 871-880.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. and Clive W. J. GRANGER; (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Economet- rica, 55(2), pp. 251-276.
  • FRENKEL, Jacob A. and Carlos A. RODRIGUEZ; (1975), “Portfolio Equilib- rium and the Balance of Payments: A Monetary Approach”, American Economic Review, 65(4), pp. 674-688.
  • GÜL, Ekrem ve Aykut EKİNCİ; (2006), “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhra- cat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi:1990-2006”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16, ss.165-190.
  • GYLFASON, Thorvaldur and Ole RİSAGER; (1984), “Does Devaluation Imp- rove the Current Account?”, European Economic Review, 25(1), pp. 37-64.
  • HALICIOĞLU, Ferda; (2008), “The Bilateral J-Curve: Turkey Versus Her 13 Trading Partners”, Journal of Asian Economics, 19, pp. 236-243.
  • HALL, Stephen; George HONDROYIANNIS; P.A.V.B. SWAMY; George TAVLAS and Michael ULAN; (2010), “Exchange-Rate Volatility and Export Performance: Do Emerging Market Economies Resemble In- dustrial Countries or Other Developing Countries?”, Economic Model- ling, 27(6), pp. 1514-1521.
  • HARBERGER, Arnold C.; (1950), “Currency Depreciation, Income, and the Balance of Trade.”, Journal of Political Economy, 58(1), pp. 47- 60.
  • HATEMI-J, Abdulnasser and Manuchehr IRANDOUST; (2005), “Bilateral Trade Elasticities: Sweden Versus Her Tradepartners”, American Re- view of Political Economy, 3(2), pp. 38-51.
  • IRHAN, H. Bayram; Nur D. ALACAHAN and Levent KORAP; (2011), “An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence From ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 14, pp. 38-61.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegra- tion Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometri- ca, 59(6), pp. 1551-1580.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors”, Jo- urnal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), pp. 231-254.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren and Katarina JUSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 52(2), pp. 169-210.
  • KALE, Pelin; (2001), “Turkey’s Trade Balance in the Short and Long Run: Error Correction Modeling and Cointegration”, The International Trade Journal, 15(1), pp. 27-56.
  • KARAÇOR, Zeynep ve Mustafa GERÇEKER; (2012), “Reel Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (2003-2010)”, Selçuk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12(23), ss. 289-312.
  • KASMAN, Adnan; (2003), “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Bunun İhracat Üzerine Etkisi: Sektörel Bir Analiz”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İkti- sadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, XXII(2), ss.169-186.
  • LAL, Anil K. and Thomas C. LOWINGER; (2002), “Nominal effective exchan- ge rate and trade balance adjustment in South Asia Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 13(3), pp. 371-383.
  • LERNER, Abba P.; (1944), The Economics of Control: Principles of Welfare Economics, New York: Macmillan.
  • MARSHALL, Alfred; (1923), Money, Credit and Commerce, London: Mac- millan.
  • METZLER, Lloyd A.; (1949), “The Theory of International Trade”, in Howard S. ELLIS (Ed.), A Survey of Contemporary Economics, Philadelphia: Blackiston, pp. 210-254.
  • MOOKERJEE, Rajen; (1997), “Export Volume, Exchange Rates and Global Economic Growth: the Indian Experience”, Applied Economics Let- ters, 4(7), pp. 425-429.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar; (2006), “Examining the Relationship Between Trade Balance And Exchange Rate: The Case of China's Trade with the USA”, Applied Economics Letters, 13(8), pp. 507-510.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar; (2004), “New Zealand's Trade Balance: Evidence of the J-Curve and Granger Causality”, Applied Economics Letters, 11(6), pp. 351-354.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem and Yongcheol SHIN; (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis.” in Ste- inar STROM (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, UK: Cambrid- ge University Press, pp. 371-413.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN and Richard J. SMITH; (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), pp. 289-326.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem and Richard J. SMITH; (1998), “Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs”, Journal of Economic Survey, 12(5), pp. 471- 505.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem and Bahram PESARAN; (1997), Working With Mic- rofit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis, UK: Oxford University Press.
  • RAHMAN, Aisyah A.; Noor Z.M. SIDEK and Fauziah H. TAFRI; (2009), “Macroeconomic determinants of Malaysian stock market”, African Journal of Business Management, 3(3), pp. 95-106.
  • REY, Serge; (2006), “Effective Exchange Rate Volatility and MENA Countries' Exports to the EU”, Journal of Economic Development, 31(2), pp. 23- 54.
  • ROBINSON, Joan; (1949), “The Foreign Exchanges”, in Howard S. ELLIS and Lloyd A. METZLER (Ed.), Readings in the Theory of International Trade, USA: Philadelphia Blackiston, pp. 83-103.
  • ROSE, Andrew K. and Janet L. YELLEN; (1989), “Is There a J-Curve”, Jour- nal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), pp. 53-68.
  • SINGH, Tarlok; (2002), “India’s Trade Balance: The Role of Income and Exchange Rates”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 24(5), pp. 437-452.
  • ŞİMŞEK, Muammer ve Cem KADILAR; (2005), “Türkiye’nin İhracat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yöntemi ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 6(1), ss. 144-152.
  • TARI, Recep ve Durmuş Ç. YILDIRIM; (2009), “Döviz Kuru Belirsizliğinin İhracata Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 16(2), ss. 95-105.
  • VERGİL, Hasan; (2002), “Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Its Effect on Trade Flows”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 4(1), pp. 83-99.
  • WILSON, Peter and Kua Choon TAT; (2001), “Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: The Case of Singapore 1970 to 1996”, Journal of Asian Eco- nomics, 12(1), pp. 47-63.
  • YAMAK, Rahmi ve Abdurrahman KORKMAZ; (2005), “Reel Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 2, ss. 11-29.

TÜRKİYE VE ALMANYA ARASINDAKİ DIŞ TİCARET DENGESİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA İNCELENMESİ

Yıl 2014, , 83 - 106, 18.05.2015
https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.46616

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye ve Almanya arasındaki ikili dış ticaret dengesini incelemektir.  Bu amaçla eşbütünleşme testi olarak son yıllarda geliştirilen Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) modele dayanan sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Çalışma, 2002-2012 dönemine ilişkin aylık verileri içermektedir. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre Türk Lirasındaki reel değer kaybının kısa ve uzun dönemde Türkiye’nin Almanya ile olan dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca ampirik sonuçlar her iki ülkenin gelirini temsilen alınan sanayi üretim endeksinin, dış ticaret dengesi üzerinde beklentilere uygun etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • ACARAVCI, Ali ve İlhan ÖZTÜRK; (2003), “Döviz Kurundaki Değişkenliğin Türkiye İhracatı Üzerine Etkisi: Ampirik Bir Çalışma”, Review of So- cial, Economic & Business Studies, 2, ss.197-206.
  • AKTAŞ, Cengiz; (2010), “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhracat ve İthalat Arasındaki İlişkinin VAR Tekniği İle Analizi”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(11), ss.123-140.
  • AKTAŞ, Cengiz ve Veysel YILMAZ; (2008), “Gümrük Birliği Sonrası Türki- ye’nin İhracat Fonksiyonunun Tahmini”, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(13), ss.89-104.
  • AL-SHARKAS, Adel; (2004), “The Dynamic Relationship Between Macroeco- nomics Factors and the Jordanian Stock Market”, International Jour- nal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1(1), pp. 97- 114.
  • ALEXANDER, Sidney; (1959), “Effects of Devaluation: A Simplified Synthe- sis of Elasticities and Absorption Approaches”, American Economic Review, 49(1), pp. 21-42.
  • ALTINTAŞ, Halil; Rahmi ÇETİN and Bülent ÖZ; (2011), “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkish Exports: 1993-2009”, South East European Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), pp. 71-81.
  • ARIZE, Augustine C.; Thomas OSANG and T. Daniel SLOTTJE; (2008), “Exchange Rate Volatility in Latin America and its Impact on Foreign Trade”, International Review of Economics and Finance,17(1), pp. 33-44.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; (2001), “Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates of Middle Eastern Countries and Their Trade Perfor- mance”, Applied Economics, 33(1), pp. 103-111.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen; (1991), “Is There A Long-Run Relation Between The Trade Balance and The Real Effective Exchange Rate of LDCs?”, Economics Letters, 36(4), pp. 403-407.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Hanafiah HARVEY; (2006), “How Sen- sitive Are Malaysia’s Bilateral Trade Flows to Depreciation”, Applied Economics, 38(11), pp. 1279-1286.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Janardhanan ALSE; (1994), “Short-Run Versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration”, Eastern Economic Journal, 20(4), pp. 453-464.
  • BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen and Yongqing WANG; (2006), “The J-Curve: China Versus Her Trading Partners”, Bulletin of Economic Research, 58(4), pp. 323-343.
  • BICKERDIKE, Charles Frederick; (1920), “The Instability of Foreign Exchan- ge”, The Economic Journal, 30(117), pp. 118-122.
  • BOYD, Derick; Gugielmo M. CAPORALE and Ron SMITH; (2001), “Real Exchange Rate Effects on The Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition”, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6, pp. 187-200.
  • BROWN, R. L.; James DURBIN and J. M. EVANS; (1975), “Techniques for Testing The Constancy of Regression Relations Over Time”, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37, pp. 149-163.
  • COŞAR, Evren Erdoğan; (2002), “Price and Income Elasticities of Turkish Export Demand: A Panel Data Application”, Central Bank Review, 2, pp. 19-53.
  • ÇİL YAVUZ, Nilgün; Burak GÜRİŞ ve Burcu KIRAN; (2010), “Reel döviz Kurunun Dış Ticaret Dengesine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Marshall-Lerner Koşulunun Testi”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 24(287), ss.69- 90.
  • DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1979), “Distribution of the Esti- mators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association,74(366), pp. 427-431.
  • DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statis- tics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), pp. 1057-1072.
  • DOĞANLAR, Murat; (2002), “Estimating the Impact of Exchange Rate Volati- lity on Exports Evidence from Asian Countries”, Applied Economics Letters, 9(13), pp. 859-863.
  • DORNBUSCH, Rudiger; (1973), “Devaluation, Money and Non-traded Goods”, American Economic Review, 63(5), pp. 871-880.
  • ENGLE, Robert F. and Clive W. J. GRANGER; (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Economet- rica, 55(2), pp. 251-276.
  • FRENKEL, Jacob A. and Carlos A. RODRIGUEZ; (1975), “Portfolio Equilib- rium and the Balance of Payments: A Monetary Approach”, American Economic Review, 65(4), pp. 674-688.
  • GÜL, Ekrem ve Aykut EKİNCİ; (2006), “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru İle İhra- cat ve İthalat Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi:1990-2006”, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 16, ss.165-190.
  • GYLFASON, Thorvaldur and Ole RİSAGER; (1984), “Does Devaluation Imp- rove the Current Account?”, European Economic Review, 25(1), pp. 37-64.
  • HALICIOĞLU, Ferda; (2008), “The Bilateral J-Curve: Turkey Versus Her 13 Trading Partners”, Journal of Asian Economics, 19, pp. 236-243.
  • HALL, Stephen; George HONDROYIANNIS; P.A.V.B. SWAMY; George TAVLAS and Michael ULAN; (2010), “Exchange-Rate Volatility and Export Performance: Do Emerging Market Economies Resemble In- dustrial Countries or Other Developing Countries?”, Economic Model- ling, 27(6), pp. 1514-1521.
  • HARBERGER, Arnold C.; (1950), “Currency Depreciation, Income, and the Balance of Trade.”, Journal of Political Economy, 58(1), pp. 47- 60.
  • HATEMI-J, Abdulnasser and Manuchehr IRANDOUST; (2005), “Bilateral Trade Elasticities: Sweden Versus Her Tradepartners”, American Re- view of Political Economy, 3(2), pp. 38-51.
  • IRHAN, H. Bayram; Nur D. ALACAHAN and Levent KORAP; (2011), “An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence From ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 14, pp. 38-61.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegra- tion Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometri- ca, 59(6), pp. 1551-1580.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren; (1988), “Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors”, Jo- urnal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), pp. 231-254.
  • JOHANSEN, Soren and Katarina JUSELIUS; (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration With Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 52(2), pp. 169-210.
  • KALE, Pelin; (2001), “Turkey’s Trade Balance in the Short and Long Run: Error Correction Modeling and Cointegration”, The International Trade Journal, 15(1), pp. 27-56.
  • KARAÇOR, Zeynep ve Mustafa GERÇEKER; (2012), “Reel Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği (2003-2010)”, Selçuk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12(23), ss. 289-312.
  • KASMAN, Adnan; (2003), “Türkiye’de Reel Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve Bunun İhracat Üzerine Etkisi: Sektörel Bir Analiz”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İkti- sadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, XXII(2), ss.169-186.
  • LAL, Anil K. and Thomas C. LOWINGER; (2002), “Nominal effective exchan- ge rate and trade balance adjustment in South Asia Countries”, Journal of Asian Economics, 13(3), pp. 371-383.
  • LERNER, Abba P.; (1944), The Economics of Control: Principles of Welfare Economics, New York: Macmillan.
  • MARSHALL, Alfred; (1923), Money, Credit and Commerce, London: Mac- millan.
  • METZLER, Lloyd A.; (1949), “The Theory of International Trade”, in Howard S. ELLIS (Ed.), A Survey of Contemporary Economics, Philadelphia: Blackiston, pp. 210-254.
  • MOOKERJEE, Rajen; (1997), “Export Volume, Exchange Rates and Global Economic Growth: the Indian Experience”, Applied Economics Let- ters, 4(7), pp. 425-429.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar; (2006), “Examining the Relationship Between Trade Balance And Exchange Rate: The Case of China's Trade with the USA”, Applied Economics Letters, 13(8), pp. 507-510.
  • NARAYAN, Paresh Kumar; (2004), “New Zealand's Trade Balance: Evidence of the J-Curve and Granger Causality”, Applied Economics Letters, 11(6), pp. 351-354.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem and Yongcheol SHIN; (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis.” in Ste- inar STROM (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, UK: Cambrid- ge University Press, pp. 371-413.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem; Yongcheol SHIN and Richard J. SMITH; (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), pp. 289-326.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem and Richard J. SMITH; (1998), “Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs”, Journal of Economic Survey, 12(5), pp. 471- 505.
  • PESARAN, M. Hashem and Bahram PESARAN; (1997), Working With Mic- rofit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysis, UK: Oxford University Press.
  • RAHMAN, Aisyah A.; Noor Z.M. SIDEK and Fauziah H. TAFRI; (2009), “Macroeconomic determinants of Malaysian stock market”, African Journal of Business Management, 3(3), pp. 95-106.
  • REY, Serge; (2006), “Effective Exchange Rate Volatility and MENA Countries' Exports to the EU”, Journal of Economic Development, 31(2), pp. 23- 54.
  • ROBINSON, Joan; (1949), “The Foreign Exchanges”, in Howard S. ELLIS and Lloyd A. METZLER (Ed.), Readings in the Theory of International Trade, USA: Philadelphia Blackiston, pp. 83-103.
  • ROSE, Andrew K. and Janet L. YELLEN; (1989), “Is There a J-Curve”, Jour- nal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), pp. 53-68.
  • SINGH, Tarlok; (2002), “India’s Trade Balance: The Role of Income and Exchange Rates”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 24(5), pp. 437-452.
  • ŞİMŞEK, Muammer ve Cem KADILAR; (2005), “Türkiye’nin İhracat Talebi Fonksiyonunun Sınır Testi Yöntemi ile Eşbütünleşme Analizi”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 6(1), ss. 144-152.
  • TARI, Recep ve Durmuş Ç. YILDIRIM; (2009), “Döviz Kuru Belirsizliğinin İhracata Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 16(2), ss. 95-105.
  • VERGİL, Hasan; (2002), “Exchange Rate Volatility in Turkey and Its Effect on Trade Flows”, Journal of Economic and Social Research, 4(1), pp. 83-99.
  • WILSON, Peter and Kua Choon TAT; (2001), “Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance: The Case of Singapore 1970 to 1996”, Journal of Asian Eco- nomics, 12(1), pp. 47-63.
  • YAMAK, Rahmi ve Abdurrahman KORKMAZ; (2005), “Reel Döviz Kuru ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi İlişkisi”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi, 2, ss. 11-29.
Toplam 57 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Gökhan Demirtaş Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 18 Mayıs 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014

Kaynak Göster

APA Demirtaş, G. (2015). TÜRKİYE VE ALMANYA ARASINDAKİ DIŞ TİCARET DENGESİNİN SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMIYLA İNCELENMESİ. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(43), 83-106. https://doi.org/10.18070/euiibfd.46616

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