The Impact of Sugar Consumption on Obesity and Healthcare Expenditures: The Case of Türkiye

Öz

This study aims to reveal the relationship between per capita sugar consumption, obesity, and health expenditures in Turkey using time series data. Annual time series data covering the period 2000–2022 for Turkey—specifically, per capita sugar consumption, the proportion of individuals with a body mass index (BMI) >25, and health expenditures—were used after applying logarithmic transformations. The data were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Expenditure Database and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. Econometric methods such as the Johansen Cointegration Test, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Impulse Response Functions were applied using R Studio. The results of the econometric analysis indicate that a positive shock to sugar consumption leads to increasing and persistent effects over time on both obesity rates and health expenditures. The positive effects on BMI become more pronounced from the third and fourth periods onward, while the effects on health expenditures intensify from the sixth period. These findings demonstrate that sugar consumption not only poses individual health risks but also imposes a long-term economic burden on health expenditures. As a policy recommendation, measures such as implementing a sugar tax, improving labeling systems, imposing restrictions in schools, raising public awareness, and supporting access to healthy food could be considered to mitigate the negative health and economic impacts of sugar consumption. Additionally, national monitoring systems could be established, and digital tracking tools could be promoted.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• sugar consumption
• obesity
• health expenditures
• Türkiye
• vector error correction model

Şeker Tüketiminin Obezite ve Sağlık Harcamaları Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu araştırma Türkiye’de kişi başına şeker tüketimi ile obezite ve sağlık harcamaları arasındaki ilişkinin zaman serisi verileri kullanarak ortaya çıkarılması amacıyla yapılmıştır. Araştırmada 2000-2022 dönemini kapsayan Türkiye’ye ilişkin yıllık kişi başına şeker tüketimi, vücut kitle indeksi (VKI) >25 olan kişilerin nüfusa oranı ve sağlık harcamaları zaman serileri logaritmik dönüşümleri yapılarak kullanılmıştır. Veriler Dünya Sağlık Örgütü [World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Expenditure Database] veri tabanı ve Birleşmiş Milletler Gıda ve Tarım Örgütü (FAO) veri tabanından elde edilmiştir. Araştırmada ekonometrik yöntemlerden Johansen Eş Bütünleşme Testi, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli ve Etki Tepki Fonksiyonları R Studio programı yardımıyla uygulanmıştır. Yapılan ekonometrik analiz sonrasında şeker tüketimine gelen pozitif bir şokun hem obezite oranı hem de sağlık harcamaları üzerinde zaman içinde artan ve kalıcı etkiler yarattığı gözlemlenmiştir. Özellikle 3. ve 4. dönemden itibaren vücut kitle indeksi üzerindeki pozitif etkiler belirginleşmekte, sağlık harcaması üzerinde ise 6. dönemden itibaren etkilerin güçlendiği görülmektedir. Bu bulgular, şeker tüketiminin yalnızca bireysel sağlık riskleri değil, aynı zamanda sağlık harcamaları üzerinde de uzun vadeli ekonomik yük oluşturabildiğini göstermektedir. Öneri olarak, şeker tüketiminin olumsuz sağlık ve ekonomik etkilerini azaltmak için şeker vergisi uygulanabilir, etiketleme sistemi geliştirilebilir, okullarda kısıtlamalar getirilebilir, toplumda farkındalık artırılabilir ve sağlıklı besinlere erişim desteklenebilir. Ayrıca, ulusal izleme sistemleri kurulabilir ve dijital takip araçları yaygınlaştırılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• şeker tüketimi
• obezite
• sağlık harcaması
• türkiye
• vektör hata düzeltme modeli

Etik Beyan

Araştırmada etik kurallara uyulmuştur.

Kaynakça

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