Türkiye 2023 Depremleri Sonrası Doğum Kontrolü Arama Trendleri: Bir Google Trends Analizi

Öz

Şubat 2023’te Türkiye’de meydana gelen Kahramanmaraş depremleri, afet koşullarında genellikle göz ardı edilen üreme sağlığı da dâhil olmak üzere sağlık hizmetlerini ciddi biçimde sekteye uğratan geniş çaplı bir yıkıma yol açmıştır. Afet sonrasında üreme sağlığı gereksinimlerini değerlendirmek lojistik zorluklar içermektedir. Bu çalışma, depremden etkilenen on bir ilde doğum kontrol yöntemlerine yönelik çevrim içi bilgi arama davranışındaki değişimi incelemek için dijital epidemiyolojiden yararlanmıştır. Ocak 2022–Aralık 2023 dönemine ait haftalık doğum kontrolüyle ilişkili arama olasılıkları, kapsayıcılığı artırmak amacıyla çok dilli bilgi grafiği sorguları kullanılarak Google Trends Research API’sinden elde edilmiştir. Deprem sonrası 12 haftalık dönem, Wilcoxon işaretli sıra testiyle deprem öncesi 12 haftalık dönem ve 2022 yılının aynı dönemiyle karşılaştırılmış; bulgular zaman serisi analizleri ve anomali tespitiyle desteklenmiştir. İncelenen illerin çoğunda, deprem sonrasında her iki döneme kıyasla doğum kontrol aramalarında anlamlı ve ani bir düşüş saptanmıştır. Arama olasılıklarında düşme depremin şiddetine göre farklılık göstermiş; ağır etkilenen illerde (ör. Hatay, Kahramanmaraş) düşüşler uzun sürerken, daha az etkilenen bölgelerde (ör. Elazığ, Diyarbakır) bazal değerlere daha hızlı dönüş gözlenmiştir. Yüksek doğurganlığa sahip bölgelerde (ör. Şanlıurfa) aramalar stabil kalmıştır. Buna karşılık, düşük nüfuslu Kilis’te verilerin sınırlı kalması, Google Trends’in düşük arama hacimli bağlamlardaki metodolojik kısıtlarını ortaya koymuştur. Çevrim içi aramalardaki hızlı düşüş ve ardından gelen toparlanma, afet sonrasında üreme sağlığının önemini vurgulamakta; doğum kontrolü hizmetlerinin müdahale çerçevelerine zamanında yeniden entegre edilmesinin gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir. Sınırlılıklarına rağmen bu yenilikçi sürveyans yaklaşımı, kriz dönemlerinde halk sağlığı ihtiyaçlarına ilişkin gerçek zamanlı içgörüler sunmakta ve doğum kontrolüne erişimin önceliklendirilmesi gereğini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kontraseptif
• deprem
• zaman serisi analizi
• Google Trends

Contraceptive Search Trends After Türkiye's 2023 Earthquakes: A Google Trends Analysis

Öz

The February 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in Türkiye caused widespread devastation, significantly disrupting health services, including reproductive health, which is often neglected in disaster response. Assessing reproductive health needs post-disaster is logistically challenging. This study leverages digital epidemiology to investigate the earthquake’s impact on online information-seeking for birth control methods across eleven affected provinces. We analyzed weekly birth control-related search probability metrics from the Google Trends Research API (January 2022–December 2023), employing multilingual knowledge graph queries for enhanced coverage in diverse populations. The 12-week post-earthquake period was compared to the immediate pre-earthquake and 2022 baseline periods using Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, supplemented by time-series decomposition and anomaly detection. A significant, immediate decline in contraceptive searches occurred post-earthquake across most analyzed provinces compared to both reference periods. Recovery patterns varied markedly by earthquake impact severity; heavily affected provinces (e.g., Hatay, Kahramanmaraş) showed prolonged reductions, while less affected regions (e.g., Elazığ, Diyarbakır) stabilized faster. Regional factors like high baseline fertility (Şanlıurfa) were observed with sustained search interest. In contrast, low-population areas (Kilis) yielded minimal data, highlighting methodological limitations for Google Trends in low-search contexts. The initial sharp decline and recovery observed in online searches underscore the persistent underlying importance of reproductive health post-disaster, necessitating the timely restoration and integration of contraceptive services within response frameworks. Despite limitations, this novel digital surveillance approach provides valuable real-time insights into public health needs during crises, emphasizing the need to prioritize equitable contraceptive access, potentially through digital tools, in disaster settings.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Contraceptive
• earthquake
• time series analysis
• Google Trends

Kaynakça

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