DETERMINATION AND APPLICATION OF FORECASTING METHOD FOR MEDICINE CONSUMPTION IN HEALTHCARE ORGANIZATION

Öz

The aim of this research is to estimate the consumption of a selected medicine in a public hospital for the next 1-year period by choosing the most appropriate fore casting method. Kaptoril 5-mg tablets from January 2018 to December 2022 were examined. In this research, time series methods were applied to the existing data using the Minitab 18 program. Moving average, exponentials moothing, and Holt-Winters fore casting methods were used in this study. Error measures such as mean absolute error, mean absolute percent age error, and mean squared error were used to compare the methods. For Kaptoril 5 mg, the most appropriatedem and fore casting method according to error measures is the Multiplicative Holt-Winters Method. According to this method, the mean absolute percent age error is 37.23. According to the multiplic ative Holt-Winters model, the total medicine consumption in 2023 was found to be 145 tablets. This research shows that time series fore casting methods can be applied to help reliable decision making in stock management of medicines by making a sample application on a selected medicine in a public hospital.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• materials management
• pharmaceutical products
• time series

SAĞLIK İŞLETMELERİNDE İLAÇ TÜKETİMİ İÇİN UYGUN TAHMİN YÖNTEMİNİN BELİRLENMESİ VE UYGULANMASI

Öz

Bu araştırmanın amacı, bir devlet hastanesinde seçilen bir ilacın tüketiminin en uygun tahmin yöntemi seçilerek gelecek 1 yıllık dönem için tahmin edilmesidir. Araştırmada, 2018 yılı Ocak ayından, 2022 yılı Aralık ayına uzanan süreçteki 60 aylık Kaptoril 5 mg tablet için ilaç tüketim verileri incelenmiştir. Araştırmada Minitab18 programı kullanılarak mevcut verilere zaman serisi yöntemleri uygulanmıştır. Araştırmada talep tahmin yöntemlerinden hareketli ortalama, üstel düzeltme, Holt-Winters yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Yöntemlerin karşılaştırılmasında ortalama mutlak hata, ortalama mutlak hata yüzdesi ve hata karelerinin ortalaması gibi hata ölçütleri kullanılmıştır. Kaptoril 5 mg için hata ölçütlerine göre en uygun talep tahmini yöntemi ÇarpımsalHolt-Winters yöntemidir. Bu yönteme göre ortalama mutlak yüzde hata değeri 37.23’dür. ÇarpımsalHolt-Winters modeline göre 2023 yılında toplam ilaç tüketiminin 145 olacağı bulunmuştur. Bu araştırma, bir devlet hastanesinde, seçilen bir ilaç üzerinde örnek uygulama yapılarak, ilaçların stok yönetiminde güvenilir olarak karar vermeye yardımcı olacak zaman serisi tahmin yöntemlerinin uygulanabileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• malzeme yönetimi
• eczacılıkla ilgili ürünler
• zaman serisi

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